minus10

Lovely example of retrogression here with gefs6z mean anon animation..

Thats a pretty good mean signal in the extended..

There are no words...

Yes interesting to see the Gfs, Ecm and Gem 0z all showing the same basic pattern upto the festive period for 850s.. ...so, as others have said, perhaps confidence growing that after this wet period the strongly signalled high will dry things up but also warm things up for a while...but then...still with less confidence at this range there is a signalled cool down towards Christmas as the high moves to a position letting in cooler/colder air...from which direction still to be decided...one to watch..

This is what we want to see...evolving further north as time goes on.. ...unfortunately it is outside the guarantee period...

Incredible 850 temp anomalies being modelled over Baffin Bay, north west passage and western Greenland ...

Jet is all over the place.wave breaks ..no zonal train on this one...looking at what is happening across the pond with lack of cold predicted not adding fuel to the jet ..

Well we can dream..

Yes....getting there...

The op is the high resolution run of the model. It takes into account more smaller scale effects. The control has the same starting data as the op but it is lower resolution. The rest of the ens are also lower resolution however their starting data has been tweaked to reflect the variable state of the atmosphere. If the op and control runs are close then you can have more confidence that variations in output are not due to resolution...BUT...ecm has been upgraded so now all the ens have the same resolution as the op..including the control which has become a de facto op...this intended to increase the accuracy of the model...hope that makes sense... Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4970000

Have noticed growing trend for high pressure over or around uk at t300 or so on gfs.. Last 4 gefs.. ...the op erratically leading the way however the mean pressure also edging up.. ...mild by day but fog/ frost at night perhaps cloud permitting.. ...not in the best position but could mean a drier spell towards last third of the month... ...not sure if anything can come of it though... ..looking at anom animation the higher pressure tends to build or drift north east with another area moving in from the Atlantic.. ...maybe this can evolve into something more useful...maybe not..be interesting to see extended eps to see if supported... ...well i have to clutch at some straws! ...

The op is the high resolution run of the model. It takes into account more smaller scale effects. The control has the same starting data as the op but it is lower resolution. The rest of the ens are also lower resolution however their starting data has been tweaked to reflect the variable state of the atmosphere. If the op and control runs are close then you can have more confidence that variations in output are not due to resolution...BUT...ecm has been upgraded so now all the ens have the same resolution as the op..including the control which has become a de facto op...this intended to increase the accuracy of the model...hope that makes sense...

Just looking at the various latest ens they all show round about the same thing for t300.. ...the Aleutian low Urals/Barent sea core heights combo of sorts...and although heights also shown to the south west i would think this is the pattern we need to keep seeing to weaken the pv and lay the ground for potential future developements..

Ec 0z control (op) looking to find winter again in later stages...with a few cold ens in support..wide spread though reflective of mean hugging LT mean.. ..will hopefully see this downward modelling in 850s ens increase in the extendeds in line with the drivers becoming more favourable as outlined in the informative posts of MattH , Catacol and others above...no guarantees of course but hopefully in a better position re drivers than last year...

Once again gfs wanting that build of pressure over northern Scandinaviour and the Barent sea..linking up with Greenland as well...

.....what..!!!

That seems to suggest that Scotland stays in the cold through to 10th Dec at least Matt...looking at Aberdeen...story continues?

Just dipping in from south east..wow..envious ( in a nice way)..what i find odd is just looking at latest met office video and presenter stated that showers 'perhaps' turning wintery over north western hills...and there was no reference to their own amber warning...not knocking met as i think they do a good job in general but this latest video forecast seems way out with what is going on...

Looking at the 6z gfs and 0z ec ens for Madrid you can see that while there is a modest increase in pressure the ops from both gfs and ecm are at higher end of the pack later on... ...with 850 temps.. ..while both are showing means above long term averages it is again the ops that are outliers ( the control on ec being the effective op)...so someway to go yet before we will no whether this... ...will become reality...the ec clusters that Mike posted earlier showed many different options...

Yes quite a shift or 'correction' this morning with the block being modelled further east....and with the exception of the two posters above .... this is definately not what we want to see creeping into the runs..

Comparatively barmy in the northern states and Canada at end of run.....

Wow...thats one big block..

That is just Alien....

Yes...spot the same?

Well the signal for the developement of a blocking high over north west Russia has been present on a number of Ecm runs now... ...just watch how it evolves and extends west.. ...the vortex at this time displaced to other side of hemisphere.. ...even gfs12z toying with the idea of more scandi based blocking later in run.. ..so obviously it could and still (and maybe will ) come to nothing but perhaps the ops are sensing something re favourable drivers returning ?...