Man With Beard

Well having spent the week a good 100 miles east of the GFS with the pattern (and generally wrong), the Euro4 is now about 200 miles west for Saturday. Rain for Cotswolds rather than the Downs! http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/08/25/basis12/ukuk/prec/16082712_2512.gif

Blue skies again and we're rocketing - back up to 27C. Just an hour earlier and we might have got a 30C down here today.

ok - 32C looking unlikely now, surprisingly nowhere has got beyond 28.3 yet even though we don't have wall-to-wall cloud in the region. Still might see a 30C.

Been mostly cloudy here this morning after a boiling start, but clouds starting to break again and temps back on the way up, nearly 26C - so areas like yours Cableguy probably going to get some more sunny spells in the next couple of hours. Stansted already at 28C. Satellite showing little cloud from E Sussex right up the east side of London and up to Norfolk. 30C is going to reached somewhere quite easily, in fact, I'd think 90F is possible again.

Hot here already. Clouds are very light and scattered. The cold front clearly not even made it to here. There will need to be a big change to stop 30C being reached again in our area.

GFS/ARGEPE owned the Met today - yesterday, the Met were 100 miles too far east, barely had Kent touching 30 and everywhere else cooler, while the other models I mentioned were spot on. Could it be the same for tomorrow? At least 100 miles difference again, and that will make all the difference in getting the SE clear of the front to the west. GFS partially achieves that and looking good for 30-32C in places, ARGEPE touching 30.

Bit of a pattern developing - fine warm weeks and dodgy weekends. Here's Tuesday next week - pretty good again but if that hurricane and low to the north combine next Friday ... ... there could be carnage here at the weekend

Very thundery right now down here

33.8C in Cavendish, according to Met Office

Worth a look at http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/ right now - ignoring the values that are obviously wrong, most of the region currently 30C+ and areas to the east of London comfortably 32C-34C. Maxed at 30.5C even here by the coast.

Euro4 shifts all the heat out of the way by Thursday with full cloud cover ... but it's back by Saturday according to the ECM, which continues to give stunning conditions for that day to the south. What is the all-time Bank Holiday record, anyone? Wet further north though next week might be hurricane watch (in the Atlantic rather than here)

GFS a little more of a "south of the M4" job at the weekend but UKMO is very toasty for a lot of the UK. Oh it really is!!

Fair enough Knocker. To be honest I thought we'd collectively set a precedent on here of interpreting maximums on the basis of other charts - we have to do it for the GFS all the time, for instance today at 1pm (just T6): compared to what's actually happening: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&SORT=3&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=temperatursyn&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&DATE=1471953600&CEL=C&SI=mph not just London, even Yeovil already above 28C, North Devon 26C! but all the same I could have made it clear it was my own personal interpretation.

But I've been following the ECM predicted maximums quite closely whenever other people have given them (I don't know how to see them myself, I'm just going by what others say) and I'm finding them up to 3C out. Let's take last week for instance. When the ECM was forecasting its hottest scenario, at one point Phil said it was giving maximums of 27C. Then there was a complete change in the forecast, the warmest air never reached us and ... it STILL made 27C! I recall you said Croydon was showing 22C as a maximum on the ECM - it ended up well past this figure. I'm not trying to make things up or exaggerate - if anything, I think as the summer has gone on, people have got more and more cautious - but I have to call a spade a spade - my interpretation of that chart is that many areas south of Manchester would reach 30C (Cornwall won't because it has more sea influence) - IF it verifies and NOT if it doesn't!!

For Saturday: A closer look at the ECM 00Z using the Icelandic Met shows it is reasonably good for northern Scotland but a little fresh, warm and stormy from Central Scotland down to about Manchester, and a sizzler for all areas south of that, quite possibly being the hottest day of the week with temperatures between 30C and 34C fairly widely in this area, according to this one run:

Looks scary but the most likely result after that is yet more hot weather for the UK. Though I imagine we're going to see a lot of variations in the coming days. The ECM at T120 is eye-catching. It would promote warmth - and storms - across much of the country. It may also mean Sunday joins the hot bracket in the SE - outside chance of 30C on 6 consecutive days, fair chance of staying in the 80s till then.

EURO4 and GFS more or less on the same page at T48 - the ECM a degree or two less warm especially further NW. You'd have to back the EURO4 at this range? Bit tricky to read but I think I'm right. (follow the lines/numbers, the colours don't correspond for some reason) A fair amount of cloud around could peg the temps back, so 90F not a forgone conclusion in the SE, whilst areas in the north of England could do rather well if in the more broken cloud. Will have to wait for the day. ECM is moving back towards the GFS for Saturday. Could be bangy.

Being a bit more UK-wide conscious... I think anywhere south of a line from the Lake District up to the English/Scottish border on the east has a shouting chance of reaching 25C on Wednesday - anywhere south of line from the Bristol Channel to the Humber could top 30C (subject to local conditions e.g. proximity to the sea / onshore breeze / height above sea level). Little cloud, very light winds, decent upper level warmth. The "warm zone" may vary say, up to 100 miles yet, which of course could increase or decrease the zones. But I don't see this as a truly SE only event. The SE of course will be hottest, as it always is. But it's still beach weather for many. Scotland and N Ireland are the exceptions, unfortunately. Quick look at the latest GEFS ensembles (which have done brilliantly for this week, unlike for last week!) - many runs still pushing the heat on northwards, like this one: Ecm of course is still not that keen so to be held lightly, but I would say the GEFS has had the slight edge over the ECM ens IF current charts verify...

The GEFS ensembles are not particularly hot for those living the other side of a line from Bristol Channel to the Humber. It's a close call though? I'm sure we've seen many an instance in recent years where the heat gets further north than forecast?? For sure, the GEM is an outlier but it does show the heat extending to 90% of the population of the UK. A few of these runs pop up in the GEFS and it seems to be a growing trend, so who knows? The northern cold brigade will get their revenge on us southerners come winter, especially on me living on the south coast!!

The desire for a second round of heat on Saturday has gathered pace quickly Note some runs in there that keep it very hot for 3-4 days without a break. I'm pretty sure the hottest runs would see us up to 35C/36C. As it is, I expect the ECM would get close to 32C, the GFS would exceed 32C, and the GEM saves it for Saturday when it could reach 35C

If conditions go in a certain way, I can see the SE registering 30C on several days by the end of next weekend. Odds against, but you can see how a fresh burst of heat could develop. Would be nice to have a summery bank holiday to finish off the summer.

Looking at the 12Z charts ... 90F very much under threat at just T72, much of England and Wales look set for a hot few days, less so further N and W. ...and I'm beginning to wonder if there will be a round 2 at the weekend? Both GFS and UKMO have a further slight dig of the upper trough to our SW at the end of the week, and it could prove enough to push further hot weather from the south.

A backtrack on the backtrack?? GFS keeps churning out hot temperatures for Wednesday in the S and E - rather cooler in the N and W

Very autumnal here on the south coast too, though reasonably warm still

Small differences between ECM/UKMO and GFS at T96 results in up to a 4C temperature difference: An even bigger difference between the GEFS tonight and the ECM from this morning: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0 I can't imagine either one is going to move a whole 5C at just T96/T108. I imagine they'll meet somewhere in the middle?