Man With Beard

The great thing about living on the south coast is that a northerly in summer can still feel hot. 19C but little wind and feeling quite hot in the sun

A little look at the GEFS for next Thursday (looking at T228), any trends? Two key issues: how far does troughing over Iceland extend towards Scandi (and therefore ending a continental draw on our weather) - and any sign of a trough stalling to the SW of a Scandi high? I count 5 out of 22 ensemble members (I'm including the op run in this) that get the trough close enough to Norway to end the continental draw brought on by Scandi heights 8 out 22 runs have a Scandi High in place to sufficiently affect our weather, leading to a continuation of continental influence and warm/very warm weather And I count 8 out of 22 runs that show signs of a stalling trough just to the SW of the UK - which could lead to a lock-in of the heat for a further day or two (some of these runs have a Scandi High and are counted above, but 2 are supported by a high directly to our north) So lots of possibilities here. But no runs at all get the main trough beyond Iceland, so if there were to be a breakdown, I doubt truly unsettled weather would follow that quickly behind.

Yes that's what interests me and why I think it will be a while before we know the direction of Wednesday to Friday next week. Writing off an extension of the heat at the moment is very premature! This morning's ECM rushes heights very quickly to northern latitudes, so that itself is a little unlikely based upon previous model performance between T192-T240. Cold comfort - oh, I agree and I'm sure even Karl agrees with you - it takes a perfect evolution to get that GFS 12Z, and odds do not favour it verifying in that exact format - but it's fun to see the potential in the charts anyway (at least for me!). Having said that, "that" GFS highlighted one evolution I'll not be surprised to see - a stalled attack from the SW on Scandi heights. It's happened many times in winter!!

00z ensembles for London Still looking hot next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, perhaps even Thursday, perhaps lower 30s rather than upper 30s at the peak. Fewer runs stay hot later in the run but still fairly dry. Not quite as hot as previously forecast for Sunday. But the main theme is, from this Thursday for about a week, very warm and mostly sunny weather - most prolonged in the SE, but most other parts of the UK enjoying plenty of good days too.

Based on the GFS 12Z, 36/37C is my punt. If it had been two weeks ago, 38/39C. Latest GFS perhaps a couple of degrees down but it's immaterial at the moment - the trends are being set, the detail will follow in a few days, if it's still showing.

Welcome! It's been an odd summer. On occasion, what you've said is true, but the opposite has also happened, like the mini heatwave in July. What makes this different is the potential for a Scandinavia High. If it slips away fast, so will the plume. But if it sticks, it could split the incoming Atlantic trough and actually push back, sustaining the heat. A few ensembles have shown this. We see this happen sometimes in winter. But it can take until 4 or 5 days out (T96/T120) to firm up on the models. The ECM is traditionally the king of the Scandi High, and I know the extended ECM ens this morning kept a bias to heights over Scandi until T312, so will be very interesting to see ahead.

In all honesty that's pretty good agreement for a D9 chart - and it must be remembered, even if this was showing at D4 it could still change a little by the time D0 arrives GEM way different, though still warm

I present ensemble member 3 from the GEFS - this would be utterly insane, and in all honesty, in need of a Government health warning

Upgrade? It's a flipping NUCLEAR upgrade! 850s of 20C plus on 3 days! Over 16C in the SE for five days! It's the greatest run for heat ever apart from 2003

I actually agree but I'd posted so many heatwave charts at T216 I thought I'd better throw in some caution! 12Zs so far - UKMO looks like the heat is getting into gear nationwide by Sunday - GFS, well what can I say, even hotter than the 06Z if that were possible, looking at somewhere between 32C and 35C again next Tuesday ... IF IF IF it verifies!

Good post Stodge (and CDF) - I count 8 out of 21 GEFS ensembles that keep the really strong heat until at least Thursday next week - but it's precarious as it all relies of a very direct line of air from Spain northwards. Could still miss us completely in all honesty.

Morning all, well yet more and more heat on this morning's runs and what a shock that would be to anyone who last looked at the models on Wednesday, where Arctic armageddon was on the charts! The very best outrageously hot run in on the GEFS control run this morning, I thought I'd stick this in just for fun: That's 48 hours with the 20C 850 line over the UK - 2003 like. GFS usually undercooks temperature charts so I dread to think what the maxes would be on this Unlikely to be quite so dramatic - and of course a plume operates within a very small area so far from certain we would get the epicentre of it right now - but the ensemble table shows more runs are close to the Control run than not Virtually nil rainfall for London over the forecast period, and though the drop-off in temps looks dramatic, the mean 850 temperatures remain close to 10C throughout. That said, I can well understand the frustration of those in the north with charts this morning. We just still can't get those heights into northern areas in the reliable timeframe, at least if the ECM is right (GFS still fairly good even for Scotland): Hopefully the T144 mean charts will hold out as Scotland will probably join in by then Beyond the predicted hot spike for early next week - heights remain high over Scandinavia throughout D9-D12 on most GEFS 00Z ensemble members, with a few actually pushing heights back towards the UK - so difficult to call as we would be on the edge of the continental air - possibilities both ways of remaining very warm/dry and also of being more slightly under the influence of the an Atlantic trough, but still with a bias towards weather from the S or SW. Latest GFS running out and it's more of the same, by T168 it's warm or hot pretty much nationwide with more to come Anyone who bet 17C or more for the CET is looking fairly good right now.

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C. Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years.

And there it is - the Scandinavia High that Glossea picked up a good week ago

Well this is getting strange. Another day, another set of runs looking dry, sunny and warm from about T96 onwards, right to the end with GFS. The only fly in the ointment so far is the UKMO, which brings the passing trough to the north a little closer at T144, bringing the possibility of a less settled day next weekend for Scotland. ECM still rolling out at time of writing but looks OK so far, perhaps halfway between GFS and UKMO? edit- oops, ECM like UKMO is perilously close to flattening the pattern by T144/T168. So GFS a little out on its own this morning - but of course it does have better backing from recent ensembles and NOAA 6-10 anomalies.

GFS 06Z ensembles. All 21 members with high pressure in an ideal position between D7/D10 for dry, sunny and warm weather. Can't get better than that.

There could be carnage on here this month. Latest models show potential for weather to go in a number of ways. A heatwave from August 12th - August 19th ish is a distinct possibility at the moment, but there's also the chance the Atlantic will roll back in quickly. No sense at all where things will go at all!

Hi! It has seemed like that recently, but I imagine there is no proven scientific theory! I would repost your question in the Summer 2016 or Autumn 2016 thread - they discuss this all the time in there. Back to the models, ECM ensembles are in and the mean looks pretty settled from T120 out to T240, and increasing warm too after a cool start - yes, heights not incredibly strong by the end but the main trough is far enough away that only NW Scotland needs to look over its shoulders from time to time.

Hmmm ... UKMO/ECM very similar this morning at T144, which usually makes me lean towards them. High Pressure in control at that time but not as powerfully as on GFS. If UKMO/ECM are right, a decent weekend and warming up nicely - but risk of becoming less settled again into the following week (D9/D10). GFS on the other hand stays settled almost throughout, yet again

It's a bit like the models have Rollerblades on right now? The ECM in particular has gone absolutely round the houses on the outcome for the end of next week, from Arctic northerly to continental southerly - absolutely massive pattern changes in just a few days. GFS has been much much more consistent - just hope it isn't consistently wrong! I think we need to wait a couple more days to see what kind of HP build we get into the UK. I can't quite believe the GEM and ECM can demolish a North Atlantic block so destructively that it doesn't even topple into a UK high, at least temporarily.

Umbrellas could feel rather lonely over the next two weeks if the 00z ECM is right

A very happy GEFS 00Z ensemble set too. 17 out of 21 members have no trough influence for the UK at all between D7 and D10. The other 4 can hardly be called unsettled either - the south stays pretty good on all 21 members. (I haven't posted the link as the whole set will change in an hour's time!)

Summary of charts this morning: A decent weekend away from the north, cooler air with a weak front and showers progressing south Sunday/Monday, then a cooler airstream Tuesday till Thursday but mostly dry with just a few showers or minor troughs, most significantly on NW coasts I suspect. Then Thursday/Friday onwards for the rest of the runs, High Pressure is dominant over the UK, lots of calm, settled, sunny weather; temperatures recover to warm or possibly very warm, the only significant unsettled weather being for the far NW but they will join in with fine weather often. Good agreement between GFS/ECM/UKMO on these details.

All over the place though, isn't it? For next week, the ECM alone has progressed from heatwave, to arctic blast, to mid-Atlantic toppler, to UK High and back to a high pretty similar to what we're going to get this weekend! I'm wondering now if the Atlantic is actually going to flatten the pattern further and we'll end up back to square one within 10 days with an encroaching trough to the NW. Let's hope not - let's hope the models have final settled on the right outcome as it would be very welcome further north I suspect.

GFS 06Z continues to blow away the northerly at an increasing speed - just 2 or 3 cooler days midweek now before this. It may end up a really good week if you like sun but don't like it too hot, no deluge of rain around that I can see.