Man With Beard

Some might be tempted to call this a downgrade from the ECM, but this is perhaps its first run in a while that sits close to the middle of its ensemble pack (SW excepted!). As expected, further south than the GFS. vs GFS I would trust the ECM a little more given the set-up, as I think the ECM op is the king of the cut-off Atlantic trough in the T96-T144 period - (though the years on Netweather have taught us: "never discount the GFS"!!) I'm really fascinated at how, yet again, the ECM gets the pattern to kind of reverse for the weekend! Not the same heat in place so not as spectacular as yesterday's runs, but would still be a fairly hot import and possibly thundery. I just can't buy it though, it looks too odd, I feel it is once again based on an over-optimistic idea of how heights will develop in the north Atlantic between T168 and T216, which causes the low to get cut-off. Thoughts anyone?

ECM latest ensembles extending the heat if anything, and a couple of degrees up on yesterday's As many upgrade as downgrade possibilities on the GEFS ensembles

The ECM mean isn't a million miles from the op, but the breakdown is a little slower. The 10C uppers line gets into Scotland for several days during the week, so I think most northern areas will do fairly well.

A little extra definition to proceedings this morning - the ECM drops that rather bizarre building-back of heat from the continent next Friday/Saturday and instead the heat is on its way out as the Atlantic trough finally swings into the UK. It still keeps the hottest air over the channel, though it will still be hot over the UK with uppers of 18C. I would back the ECM over the GFS on this as we've seen all summer the GFS having heights a little too far North. So I think something like this for next week. Most of England and Wales pretty much fine all week (maybe Monday morning clearing up), and temps rising a couple of degrees each day, from about 26C on Monday up to a peak of 32C/33C on Thursday (maybe higher IF the GFS) is right, and a thundery breakdown on the Friday with temps dependent in timing issues. Further north/far west, improving as the week goes on with mid-20s all the way into central Scotland by later in the week. Lovely!

ECM ensembles London - pretty hot but still not the same appetite for that 20C line as the GEFS had on the 12Z http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0 I'm expecting the ECM op to lead the way at around T120/T144, so I think "hot" is guaranteed but until the 90F runs appear within T144, these really hit runs cannot be called the likely outcome just yet.

Oh dear - one of those hot GFS runs will devastate my attempt on the CET challenge...

Right, it's that time again - it's ridiculous GEFS outlier of the evening. This is the coolest overall chart I could find. The 16C 850hpa line barely touches the SW. Temperatures may not even reach 28C ... now for the mean chart... :-0 :-0 :-0 Getting towards 50/50 odds that the 20C 850hpa line will cross the UK now.

Only 2 out of 22 ensembles do not reach 19C at 850hpa over the UK by D8. That is truly staggering. It's a big change from the 00Z run where such hot runs were slightly in the minority. Also, the ECM ens strongly suggest the really hot air will stay just over the channel. With this sinking trough to our west scenario, I expect the ECM op to lead the way between T96 and T144. Recent runs suggest the trough will be far enough to the west for most of the UK to be dry and sunny for most of next week, and a toss up over whether that means low 80s or mid 90s for the SE. In the more unreliable T168-T192, the ECM op seems keen to bring hot air back in from the SE. I think we're 48 hours away from the evolution for later in the week yet.

Any fans of heat need to tune into the GFS 18Z op run right now. It's out to T162 so far and it's taking the definition of global warming to a whole new level. Don't believe it just yet though...

On the brink of being mega for heat ... and on the brink of not being, too. ECM ensemble 500mb charts looking similar to the op - that's significant imo.

And another model goes for the jugular... trying to think of reasons why this might be wrong ... likely that ECM has overdone heights to the north, preventing the northwards movement of the Atlantic low - if it has that wrong then CS's idea of south-easterly corrections could be right. The last week has been a reminder of how hard it is to get a plume to the UK. South to north flows are easy to interrupt (and vice versa). But the direction of travel today has been towards the plume reaching at least the SE. Many more runs needed!

Yes UKMO and GFS quite close at T144. Looks like fine weather returning to most of England at least after a mixed weekend. Possibly hotter than last week, and those 90F+ runs keep cropping up in the GEFS so who knows at the moment?

Well I said I would limit myself to one ridiculous outlier per day, so here it is ... BOOM!!! Seriously though, can any forecast be made for next week given an ensemble spread like this? The best we can say right now, I think, is that there will be a rush of heat from Spain to somewhere in Europe, considering a dipping trough like this, with the south east UK most likely to join in if anyone does (bear in mind this is a MEAN chart which would probably iron out some of the extremities in the output):

The big three at T144 UKMO far more pronounced with the southern/northern heights link up. Not many GEFS members remotely similar. Needs to be discounted as an outlier for now? ECM and GFS both fairly dry and sunny for the SE, but risk of unsettled weather for the NW

It was Croyde, not Croydon! You know, north Devon. Now to stop expectations rocketing unrealistically like perhaps I was partly responsible for last week, I have decided not to post more than one ridiculously hot chart per day if they are for FI (T120 +) (...oops, sorry, my finger slipped)

Despite the recent trend to better Septembers recently, I have a feeling that there is also a trend from the traditional end-of-season plume to miss us. This current little teaser is trending the same way - compare the ensembles for London and Paris, and you'll see the latter is far more likely to swelter while we might reach for the jumper (if the cooler cluster is right). The uncertainty in where this plume is going is summed up in the spreads - a green colour for 850s means a high uncertainty over what the ensemble mean predicts (a pretty similar picture between GEFS and ECM given the timeframe) Meaning France in particular could be much hotter or much cooler, with the far SE of England perhaps also in the big swing-zone too. So charts like this seem within the bounds of expectation but this one doesn't at the moment Still - at T216, most of the op runs and ensembles were quite a way out for this week's (eventually quite feeble) plume. So while the ensembles throw up these situations, who knows?? The clear trend is to lower heights towards Biscay next week, and that puts us in the game for a plume, with details to follow by, oh, about T96? Lastly one for Knocker, remember the ECM predicting 22C for Barnstaple? Nowhere near: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?R=310&LEVEL=140&ART=temperatur&WMO=03707&LANG=en&SI=mph&CEL=C

Highlights this morning so far - the GFS escapes from the ECM's super-low scenario for early next week by finding another one of its 35C plumes. Unlikely, but nice. Though it is supported by several ensembles (and several near misses). Some of them are monstrous. Is it a case of cry wolf or right second time?

That second trough is a horror! Is that really 70 knots into western Ireland or do I need my eyesight testing? It really was the good the bad and the ugly from the ECM. Good stuff away from the east coast the next 3, possibly 4(if lucky) days with warm or hot sunshine and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Bad for the coming weekend as the next Atlantic low aims straight at us now. And the low on Monday is just downright ugly. Still time for track or intensity of the storms to change, but that bloke who asked on here about using his convertible next weekend - I'd switch back to the other car sharpish.

East coast looks dreadfully cold, actually

And I can't see that the ECM is very different. If anything, the timing of that front to the SW, so elusive this week, is slightly more progressive this morning and slightly more active, so charts showing the front into the SW by Wednesday morning, still a good warm or hot Wednesday for most, but Thursday showing as a bit more messy today and that's likely to impact on the temperatures a bit. Still feels like a "nowcast" is coming up for the latter part of the week. The second low to the south west now is showing as a direct hit for the weekend. I'd say the track is still to be decided, but all one can say is, if the ECM verifies as is, the weekend could be a total washout and blowout.

From the various posts on the ECM maximums recently, I have come to the conclusion that they are a waste of bandwidth. Full day sun, easterly wind, it will be much much higher than that.

I wouldn't discount it, but as all the Atlantic attacks seem to be coming from the SW, I'd have thought you were most at risk of getting wet out of everyone. If it doesn't get to you, it'll be sweltering down there, I've got a little imaginary wager on Croyde reaching 30C on Tuesday or Wednesday

Complicated. Thursday - how much will be left on the trough coming from the SW? Saturday - will yet another low stall to the west, or will it join forces with low pressure to the east? After a sunny and warm/hot start to the week, still no way of confidentiality predicting the end of the week yet. But chances still there for dry and warm all week, especially away from the SW.

Fair analysis there from Knocker. The change to an easterly rather than south-easterly draw on Tuesday has killed off chances of the hottest air reaching us - still might squeeze a 30 somewhere between Bournemouth and Cheltenham but perhaps 28 or 29 the top mark now. However, the trade-off is good, and that is the prospect of lots of sunshine and not inconsiderable warmth between Monday and Friday (the south coast already in the warmth), with mid-20s a regular occurrence in most of England and perhaps even Wales and parts of Scotland at times. The Atlantic push has almost died off on some runs and I can see it being dry all week for many - Weds/Thurs pose the risk of showers but even that I doubt. However, the easterly draw will peg back temperatures on the east coast. The UKMO T144 is interesting, as it shows another small depression approaching the SW right at the end of the week - currently well positioned to bring an even stronger draw of southerlies. Eastern areas may hot up even more if that verifies. So, all in all, not a heatwave that will be remembered for years to come, but possibly the best week of the year for some, and it will feel like a heatwave in the midday sun!

The Atlantic is now stalling so far west, it's taken the bit of the plume that reaches the UK through the SW and into Ireland. I wonder if there will be a last minute push east of the pattern as often happens at around T48/72 when a plume is involved. Although deep heat looks off the table now, I think the alternative solution now found will please more people as Wednesday increasingly looks sunny and very warm or hot for most, and many GEFS ensembles now have Thursday as very warm and dry too. So several decent T-shirt and evening BBQ days rather than one hot bang if that happens (and things can change very quickly on the models when a Scandi High is in place, of course, even at T72). I still think we'll see a 30C somewhere next week, seeing as 28C was managed today... ...though the ECM tonight has bizarrely put a miniscule cold pool into the pattern over E England for next week. Seems a bit odd! Not in any other output today or all this week. Will have to see if it has any credibility in the morning! As for the future, I sense the Azores High is going to have another go next week...