Man With Beard
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Posts posted by Man With Beard
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Regarding the shortwave - it's a bit too early to worry about it IMO. Even if one wasn't showing at this point, history tells us one could appear at short notice anyway. The shortwave is currently "for information", not "for forecast". Well, that's my view anyway
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Hi again! The winter fun and games for 2023-24 have truly begun!
My first port of call when tracking an easterly is the ECM mean ... and it looks reasonably decent for a NW block by D10, though of course bearing in mind this is still some way off:
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6 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Wettest October since 2000 for the EWP by the looks of it.
Nothing could possibly be as wet as October 2000!
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10 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:
I just woke up after the night shift. What was the highest gust in mainland England and what was the highest gust in France and Channel Islands? Cheers
Today's Weather - Daily highs and lows - Netweather
WWW.NETWEATHER.TVJersey appears to have reached 100mph. No major Met Office reporting stations topped 80mph on the mainland. Not sure about France but I think there might have been 180km/h gusts?
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I think the Met Office have done very well for all parts, actually. They highlighted the high risk early on, but never completely committed to the storm, as was represented by the warning matrix they put out. It was on such a knife edge, they would have been foolish not to put out an amber warning, but they were clearly also right to retract warnings and not move to the red warning. A few years back, I felt the Met Office were all over the place with their warnings, but they nail them for my area of the UK 9 times out of 10 these days.
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18 minutes ago, bevo said:
I’m right on the coast east of Southampton and I honestly have seen more stormy weather in my teacups each morning. Apart from the Channel Islands and very exposed coastal areas this has been well over played. My kids school is shut today. Eversince Covid, we’ve become a nation of snowflakes. I went to school on the am of the great storm of 1987 and walked through snow drifts as a kid. Strongest gust so far in mainland U.K. is less than 77mph!!
I think it's been pretty clear for 48 hours that Southampton was just going to see an average storm. It will pick up a bit during the morning as the back edge of the storm swings past.
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53 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It suggests to me that this system is slightly further south than what some models showed.
That's what I sense ... might be just enough to keep wind speeds sensible on the S Coast
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Just now, coldfingers1 said:
And to give me the lie it just dropped to F9 must have been a big gust!
On some models, there appears to be a small initial area of highish winds for Dorset/IOW/S Hampshire/Sussex in the next few hours that could gust 60mph plus. Although wasn't due to reach Chichester for a couple of hours yet!
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32 minutes ago, daniel barber said:
I mean that's pretty much what some of the high res models are showing. Not exactly surprising. Over the channel the high res models show a narrow band of 100mph plus
And perhaps the reason some hi-res models get close to 100mph for Cornwall, yet GFS doesn't?
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8 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:
Yep, it's still a model based forecast.
Observationally, a better resource might be Meteociel's isobars charts. It uses the models only to fill in the gaps between observations, and updates every few minutes. The centre of the storm is off the chart, but we do seem to have confirmation from here that it's modestly further north than the ECM track was suggesting. I would say minimum 25 miles, but could easily be more than that.
25 miles difference in track will make a massive difference in the far SE
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Just to be awkward ... St Agnes in the Isles of Scilly, 107mph.
Unless The Needles counts?
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Well Sky News seem to agree about the sting jet. I quote:
Sting jet could bring 100mph winds to very small area
There is a possibility of a sting jet - a small core of yet stronger winds - developing with Storm Ciaran.
These are associated with areas of rapidly deepening areas of low pressure and will be best remembered from the storm of 1987.
In essence, this is a small area of very intense winds, occasionally exceeding 100mph.
Mostly they affect an area of only 30 miles across and are of a fairly short duration; three to four hours.
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30 minutes ago, lottiekent said:
An interesting post from an amateur French forecaster on Twitter, who mentions there could be a sting jet forming:
I'm no expert on sting jets, and considering the METO haven't even mentioned it you'd think it won't happen, but you'd imagine there'll be widespread red warnings tomorrow morning if it did.
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20 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:
ECM rolling out now
Not as serious as others. Winds just about up to 70mph for SE coasts, perhaps a touch more for Cornwall. Seems to peak earlier than other models.
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Hampshire and IOW have declared a "major incident" because of the storm ... IOW perhaps justified, but a bit OTT for Hampshire? They need to ring that school up in Eastbourne instead!
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Just now, Thunders said:
guess what, my school decided that its a ' come in as normal despite the winds day'
That is insane for E Sussex. I remember going to school in the 1990 storm, and a tree fell in the playground 5 minutes before break time, in a place kids often congregated at. Very lucky kids were not killed.
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1 minute ago, Catacol said:
Latest BBC forecast = gonna be a pretty ordinary day for many in the south - as windy as an ordinary autumn day. Fair enough. Not my read of it, but hey - who are we to question the Beeb or the Met....
Yeah apart from between 1 and 3 inches of rain in 24 hours, and gusts 50-60mph, pretty ordinary for the inland south
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1 minute ago, Catacol said:
I'm a bit surprised at the lack of MetO warnings. Are they seeing something different? Looks to me that even away from the south coasts the winds will be high and a fair bit of rain will fall. Ground is already saturated. The lack of a yellow warning right across the southern half of the country feels very odd.
The extra worry I have is that the trees are still in 70-80% leaf down here ... surely that is going to increase the chances of trees coming down?
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12 minutes ago, Thunderspotter said:
My school have just made the decision to close tomorrow.
I didn't think they would, but looks like they are concerned of the amber warning and some other schools in the area are closing too so that's interesting. It'll be a work-from-home day and I can stay up to watch any significant event! (if it decides to, of course)
I live in Fareham too these days - I'm not expecting this to be as bad Storm Eunice from 2022 for our neck of the woods, what do you think?
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31 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
80 mile difference at T18 ... worrying!!!!
Meanwhile, if I'm reading it right the AROME 12Z brings 140kph-149kph (so about 90mph) winds to W Cornwall and the coasts of E Sussex and Kent, along with 80mph along most of the S Coast:
which looks a bit higher than the UKV 03Z this morning (although is a newer version of the UKV out yet?)
Another model I pay attention to is the HARMONIE, which is pretty similar to the AROME, except I think the 140km winds affect W Sussex and the tip of S Devon, too:
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3 hours ago, bbtablet said:
Don't be disappointed - 1987 was truly terrifying to live through. The noise was terrific and the tiles on the roof were lifting and rattling all night as the good people of the south-east lay in their beds wondering what on earth was happening (remember few knew it was coming that time). What started as a bit of fun soon turned into a literal nightmare with terrible damage and tree destruction.
As well as damage and flooding, there will be some loss of life this time round - there always is. I pray for everyone's safety but this looks like it will be a disaster for many here and on the continent.
Every time a major storm threatens, 1987 gets mentioned doesn't it ... but with good justification! You've summed it up well. I'll never forget being woken at 2am to this unbelievable sound, looking out of the window and thinking the world was going to end - it felt like being inside a massive tornado. And I was 40 miles inland! My nearest station recorded 97mph gusts which is just outrageous so far from the coast.
I suspect what the Channel Islands are going to experience might be comparable.
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An added problem with modelling wind gusts is that accuracy is not comparable with, say, temperature forecasts. I would suggest that if a model is showing 80mph winds at the location of particular weather station, what we can expect to see recorded is anything between about 70mph and 90mph - usually this ends up being lower for inland stations, which are not always favourably placed for the highest gusts, and a bit higher for coastal stations where nothing is in the way of the wind.
For now, the potential for really serious winds (lets say 80mph plus) appears restricted to Cornwall, NW Devon, obviously the Channel Islands, E Sussex coast and S Kent coast.
However, the potential for something generationally exceptional remains for Cornwall and the Channel Islands, according to some models. The latest UKV, for example, gives approx 100mph for St Ives in Cornwall, and well over 100mph for the Channel Islands
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Most trees are still in leaf here. How much will that increase the impact of wind on the trees? I always thought 60mph with leaves was something like as damaging as 75mph without leaves.
2 minutes ago, Daydream Boy said:I think the amber warnings will be dropped tomorrow and the yellow warnings will be scrapping the south coast. Maybe keep a yellow warning for the rain but that's it. I'm secretly disappointed here in Cornwall as was getting excited about it all. CI and Northern France now in the firing line. Signing off until the next storm that disappoints
You do realize there are still short range models pumping out 90mph plus for Cornwall?
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I know most of you north of M4 have turned your attention to snow rather than storms, (and for good reason!) but south of M4, there are more immediate worries!
Just put of interest, I trawled through the ECM ensembles and was surprised to see much more extreme members even at just T36. Fortunately this is an outlier!
Although, while members like this still exist, it's a reminder that millions on the south coast and SE are not far off something pretty serious, and we dodge it, or see a slightly moderated version of what's possible, it won't have been by much.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Man With Beard
Such is the way with late November cold patterns, except in the most perfect scenarios.
However, this scenario is far from a write off for snow. It may end up the wrong side of marginal at low levels in the far south and on many coasts, but, judging by the dew points on Thursday for example, better than marginal elsewhere at times: