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Man With Beard
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Posts posted by Man With Beard
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23 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
Posted during mid-month, 2023 can beat all but 2006 in first list, 17.0 would give an average of 16.625. We would tie 1826 and 1976 with a 16.9 result. For the may-Sep average, 17.0 brings us to 15.80, good for fifth.
Rank ____ CET June-Sep_ Year __________ Rank ____ CET may-Sep_ Year
_01 __ ____ 17.175 ______ 2006 ____________ 01 ___ ___ 16.00 ______ 2006
_02t__ ____ 16.60 _______ 1826 ____________ 02 ___ ___ 15.90 ______ 1947
_02t__ ____ 16.60 _______ 1976 ____________ 03 ___ ___15.86 ______ 2022
_04 __ ____ 16.55 _______ 2022 ____________ 04 ___ ___ 15.82 ______ 2018
_05t__ ____ 16.50 _______ 1846 ____________ 05t___ ___ 15.68 ______ 1868
_05t__ ____ 16.50 _______ 1947 ____________ 05t___ ___ 15.68 ______ 1976
_07t__ ____ 16.475 ______ 1933 ____________ 07 ___ ___ 15.66 ______ 1846
_07t__ ____ 16.475 ______ 2003 ____________ 08 ___ ___ 15.62 ______ 1933
_09t__ ____ 16.45 _______ 1949 ____________ 09 ___ ___ 15.60 ______ 2016
_09t__ ____ 16.45 _______ 2018 ____________ 10 ___ ___ 15.58 ______ 2003
_11t__ ____ 16.35 _______ 1995 ____________ 11 ___ ___ 15.54 ______ 1911
_11t__ ____ 16.35 _______ 2016 ____________ 12 ___ ___ 15.52 ______ 1826
_13 __ ____ 16.325 ______ 2021 ____________ 13 ___ ___ 15.48 ______ 1959
_14t__ ____ 16.275 ______ 1779 ____________ 14 ___ ___ 15.44 ______ 1781
_14t__ ____ 16.275 ______ 1781 ____________ 15t___ ___ 15.40 ______ 1779,1780,1949,1995
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Note also that list of warm June and Sept combined missed 1846 (18.2, 14.7) which beats 2006 (15.8, 16.9) by .10 C on average.
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Looking at current CET, the average in two decimals is now 17.35 rounded down apparently. (could be 17.33 or 17.34 based on differentials I saw last time I did a two decimal study). So it will take larger drops like days around 14 C to make running mean drop 0.1, and current output suggests 17.0 to 17.1 is now most likely end point.
That's amazing Roger, thank you.
Who on earth would have thought a near record June to September period could include such a dodgy 7 week period in July/August, potentially beating 1976 and 2018.
Statistically, then, one could argue this was one of the best summers ever if September were considered a "bonus" summer month!
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1 hour ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:
It's going to be top by a country mile.
The only years that come close are all within our climate change heated last 20 years:
2021 15.5/16.0
2016 15.2/16.1
2006 15.8/16.9
2005 15.8/15.2
Thanks for the reply! Oops, sorry I meant the 4 month period June, July, August, September (my fault, terrible wording, and I'm supposed to be a university linguist by profession, good grief
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Has anyone looked into this? What is the warmest June-September CET combination on record?
Seeing that June was the warmest for 200 years and September might be the warmest ever, surely 2023 might come close to the top of such a table?
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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Will be interesting to note how June and Sept 2023 will be remembered in years to come. June was very good here, but the latter part not great, and overall I won't be classing it a classic summer month.
First 10 days Sept, excellent, the rest of the month a washout. Will not be remembered at all as a good month regardless of the warmth.
I suspect September will be remembered, as it was clearly the best September heatwave in recorded history by some margin. However, I'm not so sure about June - it was consistently very warm in the CET zone, but it wasn't always warm in some spots like the east coast, and it didn't have the qualities of a classic heatwave, which I would call a long period of consecutive days above 30C with the peak around 34C or more - all of the heatwaves considered historic qualify with this criteria (e.g. 1976, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018). 1983 was similar - consistently hot, but no signature heatwave in its own right.
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On 16/09/2023 at 13:17, Summer Sun said:
19.1c to the 15th
5.6c above the 61 to 90 average
4.4c above the 81 to 10 averageIs it correct that only 4 months in the whole of recorded history have had a higher CET than this?
I realise this is only half a month, but this stat does put the early September heatwave into perspective.
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I'm thinking it will be a 50/50 call as to whether the CET record is broken. I guess we'll be around the 19C mark at halfway, meaning we'll need to average 15C for the rest of the month to get the record. That won't be exceptionally easy - it's certainly doable, but with an Atlantic driven week coming up next week, I can't see the CET for the period 18th-25th being much in excess of this figure, and it might potentially be below it.
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On 09/09/2023 at 18:05, danm said:
There were only 2 at Heathrow in June.
Sorry just seen this ... I double checked on weatheronline and it was actually 5 days above 30C in June (June 10-13 and June 25) - a lot of 28s and 29s though!
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1 hour ago, danm said:
Has it been as many as that? Pretty sure there were only a few in meteorological summer.
I think it was 6 in June, 1 in July and (likely to be) 7 this month.
*I was thinking of summer as to mean the whole of the "warm" part of 2023
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1 hour ago, plymsunshine said:
Had a thought: if we replaced the second half of July with this first half of September, summer 2023 would easily be seen as a classic! With such a classic June and a hot "end of July" it would be remembered very well
By tomorrow, I make it there will have been 14 30C+ days this summer. That's quite a decent number and would compare favourably with a number of summers considered above average.
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4 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Still a lot of detail to sort out regarding the weekend, so what trends can we get regarding the differences we have seen on previous model suites.
UKMO day 5vs yesterdays day 6
A bit more amplification on todays run, a sizeable step towards the other models.
The GFS ironically is pretty similar, a little more amplified purely because a more defined trough to our west.
Just one last thing, the arpege may raise an eyebrow or two for Saturday….
September all time record within touching distance….
Sunday hotter than Saturday on most models
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Don't know where to put this...
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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:
UKV has 850 temps of 23c across the SE this afternoon - is this a record for September?Isn't a heat ramping thread? I wonder if the reverse will hold true in about 3-4 months time.....nah, didn't think so.
High res out to Saturday has 32c in central southern England.
I think this spell will break a lot of records. It looks very possible we will get 7 consecutive days above 30C in this spell - I'm going to gamble there's never even been 4 consecutive days above 30C in any previously recorded September. CET likely to be above 20C for the first 1/3 of September, again, surely never happened even in 1911.
I note the ECM is also returning to its idea of increasing the heat yet more for the weekend - raw 31C on Sunday's chart, a degree higher than tomorrow's chart - this puts an actual 33C/34C in the frame going by typical adjustments - and every now and then the ECM has been known to be 4C too low in a plume, so even a very tiny chance of 35C??
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Of course, claiming the September record won't be guaranteed even if we're 20C by mid month. The rest of the month would still need to average 14C, which it seems to me would still be slightly above average for the second half of September.
Models increasingly converging on an end-point for the heatwave between Sunday and Monday, maybe Tuesday, so probably not 20C by mid month, but likely to be over 20C around the 12th.
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GFS 12Z: Uppers 19C or more over the SE for 84 consecutive hours between Monday night and Friday morning. UKMO similar. Very rare even at the height of summer.
ARPEGE gets to 34C by Wednesday - close to the September record - looks a bit high compared to other models but surely not out of the question.
An outstanding heatwave regardless of the time of year.
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I've seen GFS analysis today suggesting the CET might be around 20C by mid month - unlikely but wow!
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12 minutes ago, Derecho said:
In my old job as a meteorologist the EC output was bias adjusted 2-3C would be added across the board to maxima in the summer months and occasionally up to 4-5C in areas affected by foehn winds. GFS often isn't too far off, perhaps undercooking by a degree or so where the highest observed maxima occurs.
If it turns out to be overcast EC maxima are closer to the mark.
I've been thinking that for years! Nice to find out the pros thought the same
- although in the last 15 months GFS has switched to being slightly overcooked if anything?
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21 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
The ARPEGE rarely seems to perform well predicting max temps in spells like this away from the south- I've noticed it can sometimes be too high in the south but is often too low for NW England.
I think it's a bit early to draw any conclusions on cloud amounts/fog for midweek. At least Monday and Tuesday are looking very clear at this stage.
To compare, ECM (raw) not a SE only event at all, this is Wednesday, it shows 24/25C in many northern areas of England and high 20s in Midlands - likely to be slightly under baked considering ECM's track record
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Not sure if the ECM 00Z ensembles were covered at any length, but very solid support for a heatwave in the SE from 4th September to 9th September, with no member showing uppers below 12C during this period and the majority not below 16C.
If this period of heat had arrived even just 10 days ago, it would have led to several days in the 90Fs. We lose the heat potential so quickly between mid August and mid September.
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2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:
I spy a 32c
Hottest day of the year ... in September?
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UKMO still puts us much closer to the hot stuff than the other models.
16C uppers for London by Thursday on the 12Z. Support from GEFS ensembles at about 15%, ECM 06Z ensembles more like 10%.
Down from 20C uppers for a short period on its 00Z run - which had practically zero support from other ensembles.
Is this another phantom chase from the UKMO? Or is it the genius in the pack?
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29 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:
Models are increasingly suggesting that the low pressure is further east of the UK - may I suggest this might be the same behaviour that has been driving our weather the last 6-8 weeks, where there is more westerly force come 3-5 days out, than the models were predicting at 6-10 days out?
The upside being that we may get a reasonable bank holiday out of it, or at least some of it - though still to be nailed down in terms of details.
There has certainly been more of a tendency for models to correct towards the east than usual in the past two months. It seems to happen to a greater or lesser degree over a period of time, and I feel I've seen this a lot in recent Augusts. In this occasion, it may be to our benefit as you mention, with the high pressure now toppling over us during the Bank Holiday instead of holding north-west.
In the nearer timeframe, the ECM has found a little extra push from the continent this Thursday and now suggests a raw 28C in the SE corner - might we get one final 30C for the year after all? Still an outside bet but getting closer.
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The ECM and UKMO seem united tonight in prolonging the warmth (heat?) for the south east corner well into the week, the ECM looks likely to mean mid to high twenties even into Friday now. Acceptably warm through most of England, less good north and west. The cool down for the bank holiday potentially being watered down, too.
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ECM ensembles tonight ... jumpers at the ready for the end of August?
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I know we've become accustomed to charts we thought were impossible, like 40C in the UK, but this is right up there - 19C uppers off the Scottish coast in early October!