Man With Beard
-
Posts
8,949 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
10
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Man With Beard
-
-
The ARPEGE 12Z is out ... stronger winds still for the bottom half of E Sussex and Kent, along with Cornwall ... looking more and more like the Channel Islands might get a really serious storm
-
4
-
-
On 29/10/2023 at 22:01, Catacol said:
You're going to need to post some images of this - because I'm looking at modelling for Thurs to Sat and seeing no such thing. 400 mile shift south? This was the GFS 3 days ago
18z tonight for the same date
Maybe I'm hallucinating....
Just catching up with this ... fair enough! I think I was referring to the ECM/UKMO at the time ... still, events have moved on a lot - all models agreeing the low itself will travel through southern parts of the UK now.
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Update on Thursday's storm: The most severe winds are more frequently being modelled to the North France coast (including the Channel Islands), where risks of 100mph winds are still very much alive. Whilst that may sound like better news for the South coast of England, the brunt of the storm remains modelled uncomfortably closeby, and so it is simply too early to rule out the more severe 90mph+ impacts of the storm brushing the southern counties, or indeed a further southerly correction removing storm force winds altogether.
50 miles north of the coast, or away from a line from Bournemouth to Norfolk, not much to worry about at this stage.
The UKV brings 90mph+ winds to Cornwall first thing on Thursday, and then 88mph to the SE coast later on:
The UKMO brings 90mph winds to Kent, and the ARPEGE isn't far off, with Cornwall also seeing high winds:
The GFS has similar zones for highest impact but probably 75-80mph at the most extreme:
-
5
-
5
-
1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:
I think the stormy winds are for a French Affair , .......
That's the recent trend, yes. But with the low having shifted at least 400 miles south in the past 36 hours, it would be good to see a few more runs before calling it.
-
5
-
-
-
Good grief UKMO! Surely overdone!
ECM not massively different (though 50 miles makes a big difference for Cornwall!)
-
5
-
-
-
Understandably some concerns already for next week, but some models are showing a heck of a lot of rain in the next 48 hours for many areas, not just NE Scotland:
-
7
-
1
-
-
It's a good job the precipitation charts aren't for snow this evening! Whilst many models bring in no mentionable rain at all for the next 18 hours away from the extreme S coast, a few short range models have 10-30mm quite widely across the southernmost 20 miles!
I suspect the latter will be closer to the mark judging by the radar?
-
Evening all, definitely potential for something stormy over the next 10 days as the "mother low" looks close to the sweet spot for a damaging secondary low to form in the jet stream.
Also, the ECM continues to be obsessed with bringing shocking amounts of rain to South Wales
-
2
-
1
-
-
46 minutes ago, StingJet said:
Messy or what ? Fax 12z
And yet by pure fluke we've had two decent days here on the Solent, particularly this afternoon which has been sunny and locally up to 18C. Never did I think we'd get conditions and temperatures like that from a chart like this.
-
3
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
ECM having a go at Indian Summer v3.0
The overall synoptic setup looks far less promising for this type of eventuality, though - this is absolute best case scenario for warmth from the forecast situation, and a stones-throw from something much, much colder. I wouldn't bet my house on this coming off.
-
10
-
2
-
ECM D10 for 850s - That's about as much of a contrast in weather as you can get across northern Europe:
-
7
-
1
-
1
-
-
Not a forecast by any means, but interesting to see the UKMO now pushing a new round of high 850s for the end of the week:
Agreement strong-ish that the warmth will finally get flushed through by next weekend - at the moment...
-
8
-
-
On 03/10/2023 at 09:09, Man With Beard said:
Cloud cover doesn't look like much of a problem on Saturday for England/Wales
This was the ECM three days ago. This morning's ECM looks rather different for the same time frame:
Bit of a shame. The sun still getting through at times the further south you go:
-
4
-
-
One for the nerds - not quite hitting 20C uppers this weekend any more but 19C is still pretty earth shattering. Record October temps for the top of Brecon Beacons in Wales
-
4
-
2
-
-
24 minutes ago, Derecho said:
A note on the relationship between the uppers and surface temps. Looking at the temperatures over France on Friday, they aren't that warm yet:
By Sunday however, some more appreciable warmth appears:
If we start tapping into that next week, then we'll see a further uptick in maximums. For now the EC still shows Saturday as fairly warm.
With the westerly flow across large parts of England and Wales, we are not tapping into that continental air as of yet on Saturday. However EC may also be underestimating maxes by 1 or 2C in more favourable areas assuming it remains a fine day. Somewhere like Lincolnshire may sneak 24C
The warmth appeared slightly stronger on Sunday/Monday according to the ECM raw maxes (24-25C), at least in the southern half - and interestingly also Wednesday though that seems a little more uncertain.
I'm very aware that if the positioning of the high is not absolutely optimal, then, giving the time of year, a high pressure could initiate a cooling trend over the course of a few days if the source is off central Europe rather than Mediterranean areas - so keeping the Atlantic lows at bay is no guarantee of warmth any more - we would need them to remain perfectly positioned just to our west or south-west to keep a southerly "pump" going, a bit like what happened in early September.
Though if the GFS 06Z is correct, the warmth will disappear another way given it produces a new low out of absolutely nowhere!
-
3
-
-
53 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
A question: whyare upper temperatures of 20C only translating to 26C / 27C? I know it's October, but you'd expect a bit more than that. Even in Paris, it's only showing 27C.
Not sure really, I thought it was winds coming from Biscay but upon closer inspection they are coming off the continent
I've studied other historical charts and a 10C-12C increase upon uppers should be achievable at this point in the year in optimal conditions, which are usually light winds, continental draw, sunny skies, build up of warmth, etc - all of which would appear to be in place?
This was the hottest chart I could find in the ECM ensembles - 26C on Sunday near Cambridge as a raw maximum, so given usual adjustments could result in something like 28C. But nothing higher than that, and in general a couple of degrees less. 30C appears off the table.
Mind you, the date record for Sunday is 26.1C, so we could achieve that.
(EDIT: just seen other posts above which may provide better answers than I've given)
-
4
-
-
Some daily temperature records are under slight threat this weekend - surprising that they aren't likely to be exceeded greatly considering the uppers / sunshine levels forecast, but I think the sea-track of the air is probably moderating the potential modelled maximums.
Here are the marks to beat:
Saturday 7th October: 26.7C
Sunday 8th October: 26.1C (this one looks particularly vulnerable)
Monday 9th October: 27.8C (unlikely to go)
Interestingly, all the maximum temperature records between 5th October and 10th October were set in 1921, with daily maxes between 25C and 29C. What a spell of weather that must have been! Although the uppers were nothing like what's forecast for this weekend - a more continental draw must have allowed higher temperatures:
-
2
-
-
Cloud cover doesn't look like much of a problem on Saturday for England/Wales
Let's not derail the thread any further, eh?
-
9
-
-
8 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Has that ever happened For real in the past , or is this potentially the 1st time ? Asking anyone that knows please .
Not even close IIRC. 17C probably the most extreme I can remember in 2011. But that's just my memory.
-
2
-
1
-
-
It's been a year of strange heatwaves at strange times, and here we go again with a "heatwave" coming up, well, at least relative to what one would expect for October.
The GFS tonight goes full circle from its runs of 48 hours ago and is not only completely pro the warm period, it now wants it to continue well into next week, with 24-25C each day Saturday 7th to Wednesday 11th.
-
6
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
September was warmer than any of the 3 summer months in the UK
Appears to confirm CET must have been at least 17.0C as it is given as higher than June's?
-
1
-
1
-
-
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A few more takes for Thursday: AROME 12Z not dissimilar to ARGEPE 12Z, though look how close the 100mph winds get to Cornwall on this one:
Meanwhile GFS 12Z shows a strong storm but not particularly serious away from the Channel Islands, and the system perhaps a touch south - which is all it would need to spare the S coast of the more severe aspects?