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Man With Beard

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Man With Beard

    Well I'll continue looking for those green shoots!

    Once again, 36 out of 51 ECM ensembles (for London) go uppers above 12C at times between 31st July and 6th August - granted, some members have this warmer wave as short-lived, but some are not. Here is the table showing uppers for the next 15 days (better than a timestamp as it doesn't get skewed by timing issues) - the increase in yellows and oranges as we get to August tell the story better than I do:

    tablexna82207202300Z_php.thumb.png.c5461ab81df35d600418de64e66c6704.png

    I'd suggest this chart is only possible if a pulse from a warmer source in the Atlantic is successful in getting through.

    Rainfall amounts tend to get more scattered during the start of August, too:

    tablelta422072023))Z_php.thumb.png.cca92b194dfd315962a7402fe46c3ae0.png

    I'd suggest at least some half-decent days based on this (at least for the south, I haven't checked the north).

    Bear in mind - if a short-term pulse of heights is moving in from the Atlantic, but there is variation on the arrival time, this signal will get squashed by the mean.

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Gfs although slagged off to death has been Paramount in its output for the last 5 or 6 weeks for the massive change we have seen against all teleconections forecasts.  All the High furluting forecasts from  professional meteorologists on here and elsewhere beg the questions about all long range forecasts.  Yes interesting is the old MJO , PDO , IDO NAO, etc , but they cannot get long range forecasts right. , There are missing links in the Ocillations,  I'm  thinking of taking  a Masters degree in meteorological science or PHD, whatever I realise the more I learn ,the less I know.  ......

    h850t850eu-17.webp

    I would remind you that the GFS FI has thrown out a few heatwave runs in recent days, too. Which one to trust! 😀

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

    It feels like there's been positive signals for weeks now with no real improvement materialising in the reliable. 

    This summer improvement train needs to get a move on as we're running out of track.

    That's a fair comment, I confess I am one of those who've talked about signals, but in truth these signals never got into the majority on the ensembles, hence the NOAA charts. But 36 out of 51 members tonight providing warmer air at some point in the first days of August (at least for the south east, I haven't checked for the north) is by far a better sign than anything I've seen since the one day heatwave at the start of July.

    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    Although the CPC NOAA looks troughy on the 8-14 day output it looks like there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

     

    Yes that's the first real sign of improvement - the "neutral" anomaly line is approaching the south west of the UK, and the lines are flattening a bit.

    The hints of a recovery in the ECM extended are still there, and actually the "better" ensembles members are only slightly short of 50% by T300. Quite a good number of successful Azores High intrusions on this one with the source being more WSWly on many members:

    gens_panelebz8_php.thumb.png.3cb0a30fee691bc36a13d6d2e07ab035.png

    Definitely a "chance" of something hotter by the first weekend of August, based on that - but the overall signal is still weakish when considering the less settled runs.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    It looks to me this morning as though the signal for high pressure to build over the UK that has been in the EPS as a minority cluster in the day 10-15 period for a few days now, is finally starting to gather some momentum.

    Clusters T264+ this morning:

    IMG_7129.thumb.png.d5dfe5c1566f500a6c674426033bb443.png

    Clusters 1 and 6 show the pattern, but you can argue that clusters 4 and 5 are also a watered down version of the same evolution. 

    If we think we know the ultimate direction of travel from the background signals, @Tamara has been very clear about this from the GWO perspective, the question for me is regarding the wave 5 pattern that the Met Office alluded to in their video earlier in the week.  Because it seems to me that in order to follow that direction of travel, something has first got to shake the atmosphere out of this completely stuck pattern we have been in for weeks, and this is the bit I struggle with, as if the whole thing needs some extra ‘nudge’ which might require some randomness to go our way to achieve.  It has seemed that way, anyway.

    I checked the members individually at T360 - to my eyes 23 out of 51 members had high pressure in the ascendancy for most of the UK. Not bad for D15 (6 August) but I feel we've had a few false dawns at that far out, so I'm still on the fence myself... 😁

    • Like 2
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The ECM, however, continues unsettled right out to the end of July.

    Recent ensembles give a little hope to projections such as the GFS 00Z, but the balay of members on all suited remain on the less settled side even through the first week of August.

    I always feel the window on the hottest weather closes by about 15th August, so there is an increasing risk that we are going to completely miss the main period of summer this year.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Man With Beard

    38 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Now we’re down to T60 on my eps watch for the 22nd

    lesson - don’t diss the eps mean at 15 days!

    IMG_2217.thumb.jpeg.4a9243f0d9f1470467bdd298fcd2ded7.jpeg

     

    IMG_2233.thumb.jpeg.1890a52ffe443ead55105aa9eef2f748.jpeg

     

    It's going to be interesting tracking this ECM D15 mean over the next few weeks to see if the recent upgrade leads to better outcomes. Your chart is a really good match.

    I looked up the D15 chart from the 1st July on vedur.is (couldn't find archives on Meteociel). Slightly underdone in strength of the trough, understandably for a mean chart, but the overall shape isn't bad - troughing centred north UK / north sea.

    ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean_2023070112_360.thumb.png.bd1ad655b18a1c8f71ee215fb887ebcb.png ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean_2023071612_000.thumb.png.d241d93a0a05d6e31f5af04338d4757c.png

     

    Here's this morning's D15 chart. Will this one verify to some degree? 

    ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean_2023071900_360.thumb.png.b8b7aedd94441fa095d6c9d2064915cd.png 

    Could contain:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bristle Si said:

    The Anomalies -

    John Holmes's posts, aided by his long-time 'apprentice', Mushy have been, pretty much spot on over last few weeks.  So, together with latest UK Meto's medium term forecasts, i see no reason to dismiss them.

    Been the most reliable weather predictor for this month. 

    They have been superb recently, yes. I feel they do particularly well when things are stable. The 6-10 chart I feel pretty confident about. During some recent summers the 8-14 has missed a couple of heatwaves. But it's usually a good guide. The problem is probably us - we desire concrete predictions as far into the future as possible, and we're perhaps not as close to that as we'd like especially beyond D10.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ECM ensembles update for the end of the month ... still less than half of members suggesting a clear-cut change of pattern to something more settled, generally through the Azores High. However, things generally flatter out west (which is a start), and less unsettled to the NE than of late:

    gens_paneldzp51907202300Z_T300_php.thumb.png.d8a84d18375bbc418d447d4fba51b06f.png

    The clusters format shows the rather high numbers of possibilities more clearly - the one that continues to elude is the one which might have the best chance of leading to a heatwave - a strong build of heights through central Europe

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2023071900_300.thumb.png.ab2d8f4df378f0c435b7c910f5e932ed.png

     

     

     

    • Like 1
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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This may justifiably be called clutching at straws ... but I did have a bit of a "hold on a moment" with the T144 on the ECM

    ECM1_144ieb7.thumb.gif.77e7816ffb32a50fe240752e2bf21200.gif

    What if the developing trough to the west digs a bit further west than expected and separates from the trough in the North Sea, attracting euro heights just a touch further north?

    The south-east, on the face of it, has got close to joining in the heat from Europe a couple of times in the past week, and I'm just wondering if a slight twist could happen to push the heat a bit closer before too long.

    Unlikely, sure, but such things have happened before.

    This current pattern is a bit anomalous, and anomalous patterns sometimes end a bit surprisingly - which is why I was a little surprised at the Met Office announcing "no heatwave for 4 weeks".

     

     

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    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It's telling that I keep looking for tentative signs at D15 ... there's not much else to look at in terms of summer weather

    Anyway, as with the previous days, the D15 mean on the ECM keeps hinting that we could get a change. Interestingly, though, it's not punting for the change that the teleconnections appear to support? Instead of pulling the trough westwards, this morning it tries to bring the Azores High towards us by pushing the trough eastwards instead. The mean is fairly representative of the individual members I looked at, obviously with more settled/less settled variations:

    gens_51_1_360dlr6.thumb.png.9a3a35073362c9578a1ebc71e6abca26.png

    • Like 3
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