seb
-
Posts
609 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by seb
-
-
4 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:
Two runs out of 5 show deep areas of low pressure parked over the UK!
Parked? That would mean stationary which, again, is categorically not the case. In any event, there’s no deep areas of low pressure over the UK until deep into FI at day 13. As you keep mentioning day 10; there’s a low north of Scotland which does not affect the majority of the country.
-
3
-
1
-
-
GFS struggling with the Atlantic as always in these setups. Two polar opposite runs at 10 days plus.
Also once again underlining that you should compare like for like and not run for run. In other words compare 12z with 12z and not 12z with 18z.
Overall we need to remember that patterns like the current one are always harder to shift than shown by models, in particular the GFS.
This year we of course, more so than ever before, have a lot of unknowns to factor in (if that’s possible) - very high sea temps, very active tropics among other things.
-
-
- Popular Post
25 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:I agree with this - all models are just that they are predictions based on different variables and the latest data! As in all predictive modelling they are prone to error particularly beyond 5-7 days. I am discussing the GFS. ECMWF and other models and describing what they show taking into account the jetstream and pressure trends. I was really shocked by the 00Z which is why i stated in the post that I need to look at the next 2-3 outputs today to see if they are onto something about the weather turning much more unsettled or whether it was an outlier. I havent got access to the probability data or clusters or permutations at the moment. I dont want to see news outlets (particular the Express) latching onto that one output and saying that a Hurricane is on the way! which is what they normally do - they always exaggerate to the extreme!
And that’s all fine but you still should not present that as fact.
One sentence you used is “I agree that Autumn is arriving with torrential rain, low temps and strong winds and storms.”
Not only is that not supported by any other model than the GFS (one run!), it’s also not even showing on that GFS run. There’s no torrential rain and neither are there any storms that would affect the UK. The entire run has no 24 hour period with even heavy rain nor are there any gusts higher than 50mph (and those are isolated in the north of Scotland!). Also, the poster you quoted did not say that (and I'd be very surprised if he ever made such a claim).
The quoted sentence is the epitome of Express or GBN.
That is all I’m saying. No attacking but asking you to be more balanced and careful with what you post.
-
18
-
3 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:
Forgive me, but can you point to the posts in the model thread that are only facts?
All I can find are post about prediction models based on statistics and probabilities!
That’s the point. The majority are not, as they should. I gave an example above of a post that presents possibilities as fact.
-
3
-
-
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
The weather will break eventually, we’re in autumn now. It’d be more shocking to see this weather extend than break down.
Also he was just saying what the 0z shows. Perfectly permitted within this thread and no different to people describing the earlier runs that showed the heat holding.
This isn’t a heat ramping thread.
As per my post above. Although you of course didn’t state anything as fact. Language matters. Many people rely on what posters say here. We’ve even had “news”papers copy stuff from here before.
-
8
-
-
6 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:
Please dont attack my posting i am only stating what the GFS 00z model shows.
I’m not attacking, I’m highlighting that it’s baffling you’re stating a possibility as fact - e.g. “[…]lasts for around a week at least with plenty of rain on the way”.
You are free to say what you like but likewise, others can criticise what you say.
As with anything in FI, there’s a possibility the GFS is correct just as there is a possibility it is not. Without looking at its cluster members we don’t even know probabilities.
-
8
-
-
- Popular Post
Baffling how one model run that shows the opposite of what the previous run showed in deep FI, during hurricane season, is even taken half seriously. Especially true where it’s the model that always and constantly exaggerates the Atlantic during periods of high pressure.
We are seeing near record high temps and people talk about named storms and high rainfall amounts in 12 days time because one single run shows that.
-
13
-
1
-
Nice storm earlier. First time I have driven in one in a long time.
Round 2 just starting and with a bit of luck we get round 3 later.
Still horrendously muggy and temp back to 24. Even in the heavy rain earlier it never went below 22!
-
41 minutes ago, SunnyG said:
It was supposed to be hot this week-end. And today too, which is average but certainly not 'hot'. Trust these jokers at your peril. I know I don't
Huh? It’s absolutely gorgeous. Well above average temps across the country (a few small areas excepted).
-
4
-
-
37 minutes ago, WeatherEnthusiast said:
GFS has changed its mind and high pressure returns on the 19th
However the heat remains on the European continent 30-35 degrees in the Netherlands (eg Amsterdam). Only 14-23 in England and Wales. So frustrating. Rain All day on the 14th across England
You really have to stop taking every single model run as gospel. Just some friendly advice!!
-
4
-
-
15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
I'm confused, I thought the 18z was the pub run
It also often throws up different solutions than than 12z and 0z, yes. That’s the downside of 4 runs per day (publicly available). It’s useful for events within a 48-72 hour time frame, for example hurricanes. That was in fact one of the reasons for increasing the number of runs of the GFS years ago.
The point I’m trying to make is that you don’t look at the 6z Op, conclude it’s better or worse than the 0z and just take that as gospel. More often than not they will differ considerably at 7 days plus and often even at 3 days plus.
-
1
-
-
Why are we still comparing the 6z GFS run with the 0z? There have always been and will always be periods where the 6z is wildly different to the other runs (many reasons for that) and if that also happens to be a period where other models are close to what GFS is showing on its 12, 18 and 0 runs then that is the time to ignore the 6z.
Or, to be super safe: compare 12z with 0z and the other models’ runs at those times.
-
1
-
-
19 minutes ago, danm said:
Reasonable in the south this week with temperatures around 22/23c, mainly dry with sunny spells. Next weekend looking like another trough pushing south so any heat looks a fairly long way off.
To be fair the South or more accurately the Southeast has been lucky throughout. We’ve barely had any rain here apart from Friday evening for about 30 minutes. It’s bl**dy windy but mostly sunny and that’s how it’s been all last week (less windy before yesterday).
while I’d like heat, I can’t complain. Very useable weather and nice temperature to sleep.
-
8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
I recommend that you actually look at the charts before you post.
ECM is a less unsettled run than the 12z last night. Still unsettled, yes, but there are signs that there may be a way back to something more settled.
Seconded. And maybe some other models too…
-
2
-
-
29 minutes ago, Alderc said:
ECM gives the chance of 25C everyday this week. Still looks generally pants thereafter.
Negligible rain amount all the way through the end of the run in the areas I mentioned, temps always above average and often warm.
Wouldn’t call that pants
-
6
-
-
7 hours ago, CreweCold said:
As I said a couple of months ago, that happens to pretty much every trough shown to affect the UK these days. The Azores/Euro HP is shown to be more influential the closer to T0 we get.
I honestly believe it’s evidence of Hadley Cell expansion and its knock on effects. Due to the change being so sudden, the NWP doesn’t have enough historical precedent to make the relevant adjustments until the starting data overrides the timescale (much closer to T0).
I know for a fact this is a repeating scenario because the amount of slack-centred convective LPs that have been shunted N over the past few years is eye opening. I take an interest in that synoptic because of the convective potential from April-Sept.
This. And it has been going on since late summer 2021 if not longer.
-
2
-
-
ECM this morning goes even less unsettled. Anywhere South and East of Birmingham now seems to need luck if anything more than a few rain drops is what is desired.
-
2
-
-
-
2 minutes ago, Paul Ashford said:
Can confirm it snowing in Ashford and a good covering in the back garden.
Yep
it’s really heavy and wet snow. Trees struggling already and cars stuck because it’s so slippery.
-
Wow that went from ice pellets to big fat flakes giving a good 1cm covering in 20 minutes. Lovely stuff
-
3
-
-
18 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
The UKV 09Z looks very interesting though.. for Kent & Essex
It does indeed. Not the biggest area but quite heavy for a good few hours and overnight as well.
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
-
56 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Maybe because it’s not significant enough to be mentioned ?
More likely because it’s the BBC’s Meteogroup forecast, recorded early this morning and based on last night’s ECM and not the Metoffice forecast as cited (which does mention the possible snow inclusive of possible disruption).
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, snowblind said:
They don't even mention the possible snow in the south east Sunday/Monday.
No surprise considering the linked video is the BBC 10 day outlook… as always solely relying on the ECM run from 12 hours ago.
-
1
-
1
-
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by seb
Contrary to your random claims, the entire run shows above average temps, save one 12 hour blip where temps may marginally drop below average, barely any rain and nothing that even remotely resembles autumnal weather outside those areas which would consider what is shown as standard September or even summer weather (i.e. the NW of Scotland and parts of Ireland). There is the usual spread between members after day 8 but the majority sits above average for temps and the large majority sits well below average for rain.
I honestly don't know what you are looking at to come to the conclusion of lows "persisting" from D10 to D16. A low pressure system moving across north of the UK, which appears to be the reason for your analysis, does not equal autumnal weather, quite the opposite in many cases.
So once again, the low on Saturday 16th does not impact the large majority of the UK. What is shown for Tuesday 19th would, but that is of course so deep into FI that other than taking a quick glance at it, it would be foolish to rely on it.