seb
-
Posts
609 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by seb
-
-
50 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
They still are but it's for the North west of England and West of Scotland.
The 12z ECM is really interesting. A significant amount of rain for all parts but that's not the most interesting thing about it. First here's the rain throughout almost the whole of the next 10 days:
But the most interesting part is that it is, I think, the first properly zonal model output run since the spring?
Edit @JonSnow beat me to it
Deja-vu? Only today’s post has the “significant amount of rain” starting three days late. Instead of it starting in the SE, we had… a sunny day we would often have wished for in other years in the middle of summer!
-
2
-
-
As expected, the latest MetO fax charts fall into line…gone are any convergence zones from the S&E.
Surface Pressure Charts
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKSurface pressure charts indicating areas of high and low pressure and a guide to interpreting weather data -
7 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
I was down in the west country today and it absolutely chucked down. Torrential tropical rain.
And that wasn't really even supposed to happen today. So I'll take the 'rain, wot rain?' posts with a pinch of salt. For now ...
1 minute ago, knocker said:Well this morning's fax chart had a convergence zone across the south west for 1800 so it wasn't a complete surprise
And UKV, AROME plus ARPEGE showed it on their precip charts as well.
-
2
-
-
50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Wasn’t this weekend supposed to be a rain fest? As that cut off low takes up residence close to the UK.
High res models might help, here’s the cumulative precipitation to T48 (Sunday lunch) from HARMONIE 12z:
Don’t forget your brolly!
Little to show for it over most of the southern half of the country, the low set up camp too far west.
Yep. Copious amounts of rain from tonight… then it changed to tomorrow…then to Sunday and guess what, now it’s Tuesday! Even on the UKV there’s no rain to be seen for most of England as far as it goes.
-
9
-
-
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:
I sese a few are relying on these rainfall prediction models a bit too much, best just to wait and see what happens. Its a tricky set up to forecast, we don't know where troughs and fronts will position themselves, where convection may kick in, how much instability will be generated and there will be plenty given we are in a warm air mass... lots of uncertainty. Expect sudden surprise developments, rain to suddenly appear out of nowhere, fronts and troughs to suddenly appear out of nowhere, thundery outbreaks to spring up all of a sudden, showery activity to pop up all over the shop - we are not talking to typical frontal atlantic features here.
Far from it. Total accumulated precipitation is a guide, not more and not less.
The pattern I described above has been in place since last November for our area.
A rain event is showing up, giving totals of 40mm+ by day 8 or 9. It stays like that for a couple of runs then amounts are at least halved and then reduced further with each run.
Even the Met is once again going for a NW/SE split.
-
14 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Yes, i think we will be lucky if we reached 5mm per day which according to the met offices latest 10 day trend we have a faily low probability of getting day after day from Monday in the south east. The 12z gfs prec isnt that inspiring either for my area...
Will be checking each day to see how much if any is received...still hopeful though as this kind of set up can bring surprises...
Even the ECM now has next to nothing up to Wednesday for the S&E. Everything after that I’ll take with a pinch of salt just like the GFS after T+8. Both models have overcooked precipitation amounts for months at that range just to then reduce it run after run.
-
1
-
-
All I can say is that if latest modelling is not completely off then there will be very little rain for large parts of England and more so in the S&E.
Last 5 runs have not only reduced the total amount but have pushed back rain starting on Saturday to Sunday and then to Monday.
-
5
-
-
25 minutes ago, KTtom said:
The preverbial flick of a switch as we enter September and switch seasons is gathering pace! Gfs is now churning out the mid term charts that the ecm was showing a few days ago (although it got a bit of a slating by some for daring to do so). The Met are now also backing the unsettled theme for the start of the new month, starting off in the west but becomming countrywide by week 2.
Huh? The GFS is showing lovely temps throughout until deepest FI and as good as no rain away from the West. It of course has the same soaking it has been showing at 360 hours for the past how ever many weeks or months.
-
3
-
-
We ended up with just under an hour of very light rain in the end. Grand total 0.75mm which means that since the last proper rain event at the start of June we have had less than 5mm.
-
33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Conflicting comments on rainfall. For the far east of E Anglia, Essex and Kent the Net Wx radar suggests you will get rain today, how much is another matter.
Turning cooler as that rain band clears east but still respectable temperatures for late August for many away from the far NW?
The sharp border to no precipation has basically not moved East in three hours. We have had literally one minute of drizzle that didn’t even wet any surfaces.
The latest UKV has an area of measurable rain just about touching my location around 1PM before everything moves into the North Sea.
However, based on live radar and just how much narrower the band of rain is over the channel and into Northern France compared to earlier, I’d bet on it skirting the Eastern parts you mention (and which have stayed dry so far) to the West before exiting. It would need quite some development on the Eastern side of the band to avoid that and so far I haven’t seen anything that would set that off.
-
6 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Well there's plenty in the south east at +0 !!
Well, we have had a grand total of 0mm as of 8:15am and the same applies for everywhere East of here, including large parts of Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk.
-
Well, as of 8:15am I am happy to report that we have had 0mm of rain and I saw some lightning around 5am!
EDIT! Breaking news! Stop press!!!!
I have just been viciously hit in the face by………. A drop of……. DRIZZLE!!!
It’s a deluge here
-
No meaningful rain on GFS until well into FI for large parts of the country (8 Sep) and even that leaves large parts of the S&E drought areas with just trace amounts.
-
The East Kent desert defence shield remains in full force!
-
3
-
-
17 hours ago, seb said:
Extremely narrow band of rain tomorrow. Difficult to model.
Latest UKV leaves me and areas east of here almost dry as does Arpege. ICON has the band even narrower but largest amount right over me. ECM wants a soaking of a large area and is very much out of line with what’s showing on other models. GFS has lower amounts than most but over a wider area but matches UKV regarding the Eastern extent, leaving East Kent as good as dry.
Looks like UKV and GFS were on the money. Unless there’s quite some shift east, we will once again remain dry or get trace amounts here and East of us. Nice to see some distant lightning to my West and SW though.
-
24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Latest GFS is much wider - the heavier stuff still concentrated across East Anglia/SE, but reaching much further west. Finally clearing away through mid to late afternoon.Yes sorry, should have said "much wider" but look at the amounts for East Kent! 3-4mm if lucky.
-
Extremely narrow band of rain tomorrow. Difficult to model.
Latest UKV leaves me and areas east of here almost dry as does Arpege. ICON has the band even narrower but largest amount right over me. ECM wants a soaking of a large area and is very much out of line with what’s showing on other models. GFS has lower amounts than most but over a wider area but matches UKV regarding the Eastern extent, leaving East Kent as good as dry.
-
1
-
-
GFs 6z once again has no meaningful rain until well into FI, where it wants to bring in a front from the West.
At this stage think we should treat any rain being shown at 8+ days just as we treat snow setups. They won’t happen.-
3
-
-
Just now, KTtom said:
I have also brought this point up a couple of pages back. Ive noticed this happens every year in summer, my location is the first to be hit by approaching fronts from the Atlantic, but so far, each one has delivered nothing. Appart from a drizzly day yesterday we have had no rain for weeks, yet the Mets forecast and the Fax charts constantly hinting that there is a washout around the corner only for it to fizzle out into nothing by the said day. For some reason, Met and Models are over estimating rainfall by as close as 24 hours out.
I don’t think it happens every summer. Last summer usually turned out as modelled. It’s been a problem since around October last year. No matter what’s modelled with rain coming in from the West, it ends up either disappearing completely or so weakened that predication amounts are close to zero. The further S & E you’re in the country, the worse it is.
-
Warm and dry away from the N&W throughout all model runs.
GFS and ICON want some rain in the SE on Thursday but ECM, ARPEGE having none of it. Neither does UKV by the looks of it (just based on the MetO app).
As countless times since last autumn, a countrywide washout day (today), which was still being modelled by numerous models as late as 36 hours ago… has vanished, with the SE staying completely dry.
-
2
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:
Fronts showing up for next weekend on this morning’s model output. The modelling for next week has been very poor.
And yet again giving nothing but trace amounts for the S&E. Unless you take ECM literally but given its overestimations of rain for months… even if it were right it’s small amounts.
Temps away from the N&W very decent throughout. Low 20s next weekend otherwise 25 or thereabouts.
Far from poor across most of the country. Sorry NW.
-
5
-
-
1 hour ago, KTtom said:
No wonder there has been no 'model discussion' for 10 hours, hopes for a late blast of summer seem to be receeding for the bank holiday, ECM remains dry and settled for the south, but the big change is uppers of just +5 will make it feel very autumnal...
It’s more a case of there being nothing extraordinary, albeit weather which we would often have begged for in other years.
For the S&E the entire runs of GFS and ECM show decent weather with temps in the low to mid 20s and apart from a small amount of rain on Monday (the monsoon has been downgraded to next to nothing) and possibly on Thursday/Friday it is dry and mostly sunny.
I don’t think we could ask for more, although to help with the drought situation we should of course want rain. As it stands, drought conditions will worsen.
-
3
-
-
GFS looking very nice tonight
-
4
-
-
10 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:
just heard thunder!!!!
We have lots of thunder and lightning but not a lot of rain...
.png.e1247e30f6732d448b4dc267f3aa6d22.png)
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Quite the opposite. There appears to be a tendency by some to take synoptics at 8 days plus as gospel leading to conclusions such as “significant rain for all”.
The models are just that, models of different scenarios which become less reliable the further out they are.
For nearly a year now, all models have overestimated the impact of frontal systems coming from the Atlantic. Every time a decent amount of rain is shown in the Eastern half of the UK from such a system, it gets watered down and pushed back.
There has been no “force” to push those systems sufficiently across the country and that fact remains. Unless and until the Atlantic patterns go towards something we’d consider a standard setup, this won’t change. It matters not one bit if both the ECM and GFS show a monsoon over the Eastern half at >T+8, unless there is a major change in the overall Atlantic pattern, these scenarios wont verify.