seb
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Posts posted by seb
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Rainfall accumulation out to 240 hours on the ECM op.
And GFS out to 384 hours/22 Aug 🏜
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What a lovely “normal” summer day
aside from the California look, it feels very British today! Perfect weather for some garden work.
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GFS 0z has all but removed any rain in the desert regions (the tiny amount shown for a run or two yesterday in FI) all the way to the end of the run.
Temps hot all next week then down to average.
I’m talking S & E obviously.
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30 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Between yesterday's 12z runs and the overnight 0z runs both GFS and ECM appear to have picked up the same signal and are now forecasting a trough over the UK rather than high pressure at T240. Good agreement between their output for Sunday 14th August. Only one run, but just maybe signs of some welcome rain arriving earlier for the dry south?
ECM 12z yesterday:
This morning's 0z:
GFS 12z yesterday:
This morning's 0z:
No rain on either model up to 14 August. After that (15-20 August) the GFS has a very narrow strip of approximately 20mm in the most Eastern parts with very little for the large majority of the drought regions (2-5mm). Well into FI territory, just one run and a setup where movement of just a few miles east result in nada.
In fact, looking at the ensembles it looks even worse.
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21 minutes ago, minus10 said:
This is the ground i am currently seeing in the gardens...
Rock hard too...
9 minutes ago, Nick L said:Similar to here. Can genuinely fit my foot in some of the cracks on the allotment.
Same here.
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Hosepipe ban in the defect for Kent and Sussex from 12 August until further notice.
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Hosepipe ban in effect from 12 August for Kent and Sussex, until further notice.
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Just posted in the drought thread about just how little rain central/east Kent has had all year. January was nearly as dry as July with less than 10% of the average rain amount.
Maps go back to 2001 on MetO website and you won’t find another year like this….
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All anomaly maps back to 2001 are available here.
There is not one year where my area had as little rain as 2022. Every single month apart from Feb and May (both had the average rainfall amount), every month is 50% or less than the expected amount. January in fact was almost as dry as July at less than 10% (July obviously had zero rain).
Even November 2021 had less than 20% of the average amount.
UK actual and anomaly maps
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKMaps of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years-
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56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Why don't the Met Office wait until all the stats have come in before making press releases? They said "driest July since 1911 for England", the media caught onto this and of course they spread this info out to the populace.
It now turns out to be the driest July since 1935 for England.
Blame our media (especially papers and online) and bad journalists.
The MetO press release was based on final July stats and they show that for England as a whole it’s the driest July since 1935 while for Southern England it’s the driest on record (note that this includes the Southwest which makes the overall stats appear better than they are in the Southeast).
Tye 1911 “confusion” stems from this sentence in the press release:
”July 2022 has been a significantly dry month for Southern England, only 10.5mm of rain has been provisionally recorded on average, less than the previous record of 10.9mm set in 1911.”
Driest July in England since 1935
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKJuly 2022 was the driest July for England since 1935, and the driest July on record for East Anglia, southeast and southern England, according to provisional statistics from the Met Office.-
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14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Rainfall stats for Kew 1995 for comparison:
March 52mm
April 15mm, May 40mm, June 21mm, July 29mm, Aug less than 1mm.. September though was notably wet 84mm followed by a very dry October 26mm.
Driest period ever since records began in 1767 was May 75 to Aug 76. That period brought two hot summers. As with 95, Sept was very wet indeed. I would not be at all surprised to see Sept or October very wet. Or ar least a sudden end to the dry spell.. happens time and time again.
Kew 1976 - Jan 15mm, Feb 21mm, March 9mm, Apr 9mm, May 22mm June 8mm, July 25mm, August 13mm..
Unfortunately we do not have a weather station here or anywhere in Kent anymore so I can’t give you stats.
What I can say is that all winter I barely needed to dry the dogs when out. Normally I need to wash their towels every other day.
As for the summer drought, the last measurable rain here was 30 May. The ground is bone dry down to half a meter. Grass is dead. Leaves are falling everywhere. I need to top up the pond daily (once a week during summer normally, if that). I have found 4 dried out dead slow worms in the last week in the garden.
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18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Hey folks anybody else's weather apps today showed the opposite of what actually happened! Met forecast for my area today was cloud increasing through the day after sunny start...well its nearly 5pm the cloud melted away and it's unbroken sun! Wow just goes to show how it pays to not get to hung up over the surface details for a day or 2 ahead.
Well then....ICON LITERALLY AS A SCANDY AZORES LINK UP AT DAY 7. Thats some spread of Heights we end up with.
The general message is keep watering those plants before the powers that be remove that luxury!
It's a dry outlook folks that's for sure!
Summed up perfectly in the MetO mid and long range forecast. Dry, dry and even drier in the South and East.
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17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Just on the light brown/ white border. A dry month here but not especially so. Everything still very green.
1995 and 2018 brought weeks of dusty arid ground. This is not exceptional. 1995 more exceptional as it was countrywide.
Well considering it’s the driest July on record (and every month since February has been well below average), I’d say it is extremely exceptional.
I have never experienced drought like this in this country.
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I think neither should we rule out extreme heat nor should we bank it.
The more important matter is that the South and East are all but guaranteed to have another two weeks of summer weather which in other years we’d pray for, along with no rain. Considering that large swathes of the South and East have had 10% of their average July rainfall and the landscape resembles Spain, Portugal or Southern California I would say it’s clear that summer 2022 is extraordinary and record-breaking. There are no signs whatsoever in any model which imply a change to that, whether extreme heat happens or not.
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20 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Well i dont think i have ever seen such a flat dry precip run as shown on gfs 0z for herts..
Just when i thought it couldnt get any drier...
Yes I agree. And my usual sense check on Weather.com and AccuWeather for the first time ever shows clear 14 day runs without the usual rain at some point between day 10 and 14. In all the years I’ve looked at models and the “direct to forecast” apps that has never happened.
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Nothing is ever certain in FI but I think it’d be worthwhile for people to remember what GFS showed a few weeks ago, how many discounted it (while pointing to ECM, La Niña and anoms) and what happened in the end.
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2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:
That's really sad seb. As a lad I can remember them in my back garden. Slow worms are now a protected species in the UK with numbers in decline. They can live for up to 20 years and enjoy slugs and snails, so the one's you found had probably been living in/near your garden for some time, until this prolonged period of drought.
I know
They're amazing creatures and we are really lucky to get a good few in our garden as well as “normal” lizards.
I have never found one of them before all dried out. Horrible. We started leaving small bowls with water out over the last few weeks, mainly because the birds have been desperately trying to drink out of the pond but the pigeons and doves don’t give the smaller ones a chance. I’ve seen “our” squirrel drink from the bowls but I guess it’s not helping the slow worms.
Big shower to our NW tonight but as it moves SE it just dissipates on the radar.
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Breezy and so muggy, 24 degrees. Not a drop of rain in the forecast… tell a lie! MetO app shows a 40% chance of a shower at 4PM tomorrow
The desert remains. Found 4 dead, dried out slow worms in the garden in the last few days
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1 hour ago, Atmogenic said:
well just had a slow moving light shower and now the humidity has risen what feels like 60% as im all hot now just from coming back inside
This is the kind of rain we’d need for 3-5 days. Soil still cracked and looks no different to earlier.
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We just had five minutes worth of rain drops bigger than drizzle!! The patio and the road actually looked wet… for about 5 minutes
the decking still looks wet!!
I better enjoy it as there’s nothing on the models for the next 10 days and even a quick “sense” check on the “automated model data apps” like AccuWeather and Weather Channel show bugger all until 6 August.
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14 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
Relatively heavy rain for about 30 seconds here nothing else from then on.
Saying that, more rain now.
We had 3 "drizzle showers". Because of the wind it barely reaches the ground. You can see a few drops on the car and garden table but it's gone as quick as it appears
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
RAIN!
Don't think I've been so happy to see rain falling here when it's not a Storm.
Drizzle for 5 minutes here lol. Showers coming in from the West, vanishing on the radar about 10 miles West from here...
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Total accumulated precipitation in the SE until end of run of of the 00z GFS
And to make it worse, pretty much all of it is towards the end of the run or in other words in FI. If the last few months have taught us anything, in all likelihood this will disappear.
Not that 1-3mm would do any good anyway.
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7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Why is it some on here see a bad GFS op run then paint the picture of a typically poor August on the way? Wow just wow...The summer so far as been pretty dam good for the South with records being broken for heat....and drought like conditions for some! I think some have it in there heads that August has to be poor because it always is! Or that they expect every model run to be perfect....thats not the way it works.
To sum up next week looks good for many away from the far North...The extended 6z mean keeps with the mainly settled and fine Summer conditions for the South...and as long as that remains the case we are in the game for heat!
And guess what September these days can also turn out to be a warm and summary month!
The outlook looks pretty positive in my eyes!
Summed up well by Rob above.
I did a raindance last night and now it's drizzling here...
Agree. It seems some people are just desperately trying to be the first to bring “bad news” and jump to conclusions by looking at the op of one run, ignoring ensembles and it seems even the mean.
There is nothing other than average or above average summer weather well into FI and most definitely no washout. In particular the “desert areas” barely have any rain in the next 10+ days on any model.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hot, hot and hot.
A grand total of 2-7mm of rain by the end of the GFS run in the desert areas and that hinges on a tiny bit of convective precipitation modelled for the 16/17… so for now to be taken with a huge pinch of salt. ECM has a tiny bit more (2-20mm) but again, pinch of salt.
Either way, temps remain above average away from the NW throughout all runs and even if there were to be 20mm of rain in favoured spots, it won’t change the drought situation.
Any of the “breakdown” posts which seem to appear every morning lately can safely be ignored. There is no huge change modelled anywhere and the initial seasonal modelling shows below average precipitation going forward. Unless something major happens out of the blue, this is getting serious.