seb
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Posts posted by seb
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2 hours ago, Love Snow said:
Sky News just said no damp weather in the Models until the End of October can anyone confirm this?
A number of long range models show below to well below average precipitation. They may of course be wrong.
That said, given the last 8 months, the estimate that we would need 12cm(!) more rain than average to cancel out the lack of rain seems correct.
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6 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
This is wide of the mark. It's akin to the 'will it snow in xyz' type posts in winter.
The key thing is the setup. The fact is that we are moving to a significant low pressure phase next week and unless you are pinning all your hopes on the lone star GFS operationals the devil will, as always, be in the detail.
With the low pressure will come precipitation. Significant quantities of it. The Euro models all show this and so do many of the GFS ensemble members.
We have a great tendency to recency bias. We subconsciously think 'oooooh it's hot now it will be hot next week.' Actually the models are consistently showing us that the second half of August will be a marked contrast to the first half. As the Met Office have said.
Much bias?
The MetO says this:
14-23 Aug: Temperatures initially cooling down to nearer normal and feeling humid, but returning to warm or very warm, becoming locally hot in much of England and Wales.
24 Aug - 7 Sep: […] some spells of rain or showers, most likely in the north and west. However, periods of dry and sunny weather can be expected in between. Temperatures are likely to be above normal, with the chance for some very warm spells.
And that was of course based on yesterday’s output whereas today both GFS and ECM have different ideas, keeping very warm to hot temps all next week, away from the NW. In other words, as you were… rinse and repeat.
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The 00z gives us temps of 30-32 on Tuesday on Wednesday. Rain? If it sticks with this I doubt there will be any in S&E.
Let’s see what the ECM will bring today.
EDIT: Add 30 on Thursday and still 28 on Friday to that. Rain by Friday 0-2mm in a strip across the entire South Coast and up to EA etc. Exceptions London and parts of Essex where there seems to be some convective precipitation. And yes, I am not taking precipitation charts as gospel but the theme is clear and it's the same it has been for month. Rain modelled to then slowly vanish with each run.
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13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
At this range it's futile predicting where and how much if any precipitation falls next week. What ECM does show is a trough bedding down on the UK within relatively warm air. Such synoptic ripe for showery downpours almost anywhere and potent ones, don't see how can describe it as a dry pattern.
Please ignore rainfall prediction model output for 7 days plus..
I normally would but the pattern for rain to fizzle out before reaching the S&E has been the same since November. In fact the only decent setup bringing heavy showers in this region in the last 6 months was a low stuck over Benelux spinning up showers from the East. That was in the last week of May which resulted in May being the only month this year where our rainfall wasn’t well below average.
Every single front coming from the west results in a few drops here and the same applies to convective setups in westerlies. There is nothing anywhere which implies this is going to change unless you can point to something.
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So ECM and GFS agree on next to no rain (up to 4mm) for the S&E until next Friday. Temps good too.
The GFS FI after next Friday… well, it’s what it modelled in the same run yesterday just to then remove it all in the subsequent two runs.
Long range forecasts go for continued drought conditions.
Let’s see what the models do in the next few days.
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Well latest Exeter long range kind of in line with GFS 6z. A little cooler, showers and storms mainly in the SW. I settled in the NW. Possibly a few storms across the South.
Reload of the hot conditions.
More unsettled late August but continuing NW/SE split with temps above average.
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12 minutes ago, Nick L said:
Added to low dew points again too. This summer has seen really unusual heat for the UK: Dry and windy.
Very unusual for sure. It isn’t like the heat in Spain or Portugal either.
The only place I’ve experienced this kind of “heat feel” is in Southern California, in a narrow strip each side of the I-15 during weak Santa Ana events when the sea breeze is trying to “win” against the winds rushing down the mountains.
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I had not even looked at wind on the models and forecasts but did just now when I noticed how gusty it is. We have 20-25 mph gusts forecast all the way to Sunday evening.
Not good for the wildfire risk.
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GFS 6z removes even more of the precipitation and apart from one cooler day (Wed 17th) has very warm to hot temps for the Southeast through its entire run. 30 or more on a number of days.
Rinse and repeat. Pattern truly stuck.
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Hadn’t even looked at the 00z GFS. All rain removed. The luckiest areas in the desert regions see around 5mm by the end of the run.
Either way, gone is the monsoon and instead the SE has temps of 35 on the 22nd!
Edit: To make matters worse, that total amount of rain falls over three days with dry days in between and each “rain day” only has 1-2mm; in other words it will do bugger all. If this does come off as currently shown then the soil won’t even get damp.
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6 hours ago, Kentspur said:
You can blame me whenever I've had Annual leave this summer and had a staycation its been perfectly hot and sunny not a drop of rain. A week in June which saw an unusual 32c in Devon! and 3 weeks at home in the SE with the mega record breaking heat week.
That late August wet period you mentuon I'm flying out to Menorca before it
. So no doubt I'll come back and you'd all have had some welcome rainfall as per GFS run and it's ensembles. But it will be back to heat the way this summers gone for me
5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:Would be great if it was the 21st-22nd, as that will mark 35 years since those severe thunderstorms during 21st August 1987, after a few days of hot weather.
2011 was like that, but the summer was very poor.
4 hours ago, sheikhy said:And then comes the monsoon for most of england a day later!!for some reason im kinda looking forward to that
!!
All FI of course and precipitation charts are never accurate but you couldn’t make this up… the “monsoon” shown by the GFS gives close to 50mm in parts of the desert but the 18z appears to have recognised the East Kent rain shield and manages to create a dry zone with a grand total of 10mm by the end of the run… and I’m right in it
Oh and temps up to 30 on the 22nd! In fact, apart from 2 days at 20 we are in the mid to high 20s throughout.
Let’s see what today’s runs bring. I think for now I’ll stick with the MetO and no significant rain.
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GFS 12z brings in an extensive convective front late 21 Aug into the early hours of 22 Aug across the East and Southeast, with high winds and flash floods if it comes off.
Deep FI but that’s a new one lol.
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1 hour ago, SnowBear said:
As I see it will take the awakening of the hurricane systems to break this pattern as we have seen many times in years past.
This year, the seas off Mauritania, the southern Western Sahara coast, Senegal and The Gambia have been 1-2°c lower than normal, at around 24-25°c with a small patch of 26°c off Senegal. Usually they will be at 26°c and above. 26°c is generally the sea surface temperature for tropical storm/hurricane development.
We do now have a disturbance moving off that coast near Senegal which has a 40% chance of developing into a tropical system, but currently its a disorganised area of convection.
Once we do start to see systems move off and start their long tracks into the Northern Atlantic then we will start to see our patterns change too.
Many have spoken on how little energy the Atlantic has at the moment, as there is little energy being introduced by these systems right now, it results in what we see in our weather.
I generally agree, however the lack of hurricanes can't explain the weak jet stream since November last year. So something, somewhere is missing or has (temporarily?) changed.
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32 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
MO outlook pretty much reflects what the models are currently showing; Temperatures trending downwards after this week but staying very warm. Some rain in the north and thundery showers in the south. Then turning more settled again.
Yep. Continued very warm, locally hot away from the NW. Possibly some showers or storms then back to more settled into September.
No breakdown.
GFS 12z rolling out as we speak. Let’s see what we get.
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Guys, I don't think anyone is being aggressive and no one should be. We all have our preferred weather but just like there are some in winter who see cold and snow when it isn't showing on the models, there are a few here who for the past few months have seen breakdown after breakdown where models aren't showing one.
I just went back to 23, 24 and 25 June so I won't be unfair but the posters who stand out anecdotally stated that models back then were showing an unsettled and cool pattern throughout the first two weeks of August, including rain in the S & E. The models didn't show that but they actually showed more rain than they are showing now until the end of their runs. For my location we apparently were due 15-30mm by 6 August. We had some drizzle and one 2 minute shower. You couldn't even see it on the hard, parched soil.
Of course sooner or later there will be a pattern change but it is is extremely unlikely to happen next week, just as it didn't two weeks ago or the many times before it was apparently going to turn unsettled.
Whatever causes the current pattern (a pattern that goes back to November last year, some short interruptions - for example Eunice - aside), it seems more or less stuck. Whether it's climate change or something else, I don't know but we it is what it is.
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There’s also this…
/https://www.meteo-villes.com/actualites/double-jet-stream-ce-phenomene-qui-favorise-vagues-de-chaleur-et-secheresses//assets/favicon.png Actualités météo: Double jet-stream : ce phénomène qui favorise vagues de chaleur et sécheresses 06/08/2022
WWW-METEO--VILLES-COM.TRANSLATE.GOOGRécemment, une étude a mis en lumière les effets néfastes du double jet-stream sur l'Europe de l'Ouest et la France, favorisant les vagues de chaleur et les sécheresses. Explications du...explained well in a new French study.
A pattern that does (in my opinion) not only apply during heatwaves but to a lesser extent has been in place for quite a while and does not seem to be displaced easily.
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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Hello seb
no sign ?
it may not last too long but ‘no sign of a breakdown’ really isn’t accurate…..
No, no sign.
A breakdown is commonly accepted to mean rain and a significant cool down.
Neither the mean nor the large majority of ensembles show any rain unless you really want to count <5mm, spread over 5 days, at 8+ days away. The same has been shown at that range repeatedly over the last two months. It hasn't happened. The Atlantic has been MIA for most of the last 9-10 months and the jet stream has been weak. There is nothing to suggest, at this point, that this big picture pattern is changing. Every time low pressure is modelled at 8-10+ days it gets squeezed out or fizzles out into a weak front which by the time it reaches the S & E has no precipitation.
As for temps, if you want to consider mid 20s in the middle of August as cool...
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30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
There's a first time for everything, I guess?
But, seriously, is it surprising that some of us are getting a wee bit obsessed with potential rainfall?
Haha
Not at all, rain is needed, badly! It’s the “breakdown” stuff when there’s no hint of a breakdown that baffles me
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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Most of that ppn on the ecm is also convective or storms….which as we’ve seen all summer has been grossly exaggerated on all of the models. Be very wary at the moment until any breakdown is firmed up on. Could be that many areas see nothing again like the GFS run. Getting close to disastrous in some areas (including mine) now with the lack of rain.
Yep that's exactly the point I was trying to make. Convective precipitation in FI, GFS and ECM disagree and even the most positive ensembles show less than 10mm across large swathes of the parched desert areas. As for temps, mid 20s which is actually above average. So I'm just a bit baffled about some posts that appear as if wishful thinking has cancelled out skills and knowledge.
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16 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
0z ECM precipitation chart at 7 days:
And 10 days:
Euro models seem to be in agreement at the moment that after this week's extreme heat a return to something more typically British may be in force from next week onwards. This tallies with the Met Office forecast for a wetter second half of the month.
As I said earlier, a transition to "normal" summer weather in the mid twenties. Nothing which we would consider a breakdown in normal times.
Rainfall amounts close to nothing for the majority all the way to the end of the run. All the ECM has done between 12z and 00z is to move some modelled convective precipitation further East, which if it remains modelled in the reliable timeframe, would be welcome for EA. However, we all know to take storms or showers modelled at 3-5+ days with a huge pinch of salt, especially where ECM and GFS wildly differ. The South and SE however manage a grand total of <5mm by the end of the run... in other words amounts which will do nothing when falling on the ground.
12z vs 00z ECM and GFS 00z.
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5 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:
Two charts from UKMO and GEM that are not stable summer weather.
In these situations I would always trust the European models too. We await this morning's ECM with interest. Especially so as the GFS has habitually over the past week had a problem with its operational being out of kilter with its ensemble members.
A swift breakdown coming end of the weekend.
UKMO results in great “normal” summer weather of mid 20s and isolated showers. GEM goes against every other model and has not been exactly great for the last few months so unless this scenario is modelled elsewhere I will ignore it for anything further than 3 days out.
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2 minutes ago, richie3846 said:
Is that accumulated precipitation from the 7th till the 23rd?
Yes it is.
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GFs 00Z reduces any precipitation across the S & E even further to now almost nothing by the end of the run. Total accumulated precipitation on 00z vs 18z below.
Temps rising each day this week, peaking mid 30s at the weekend. Still touching 30 a week today and then settling in the mid 20s.
No sign of any meaningful rain and nothing that would, in normal times, be considered a breakdown. Heatwave for 5+ days followed by summer weather we would normally be happy about.
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Almost all rain gone from the 12z GFS. In fact none at all until 19 August in large parts of the desert.
After that some lucky ones (NW Kent and parts of Essex) may get something convective with up to 20mm just for the heat to then return.-
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The mean is just the average of all 30 possible scenarios. It's quite unusual to follow the Op closely at more than a week away. If you look at next Thursday for example, you got P30 throwing out 850 temps of 3 degrees whereas P06 is touching 17. The op is at 15.