seb
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Posts posted by seb
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12 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Typical: just outside the area. It would be ironic if we miss them again today because they are just too south east after yesterday being too north west. Think we have had 0.05mm or less so far..
Edit: you may have better luck Seb...hey sun has just come out.
Sun out here too
let’s see what today brings! They few drops we’ve had so far have done nothing for the drought conditions.
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Since the “rain/storm” event started we have had a grand total of 0.75mm
No change to the parched and cracked soil. Not even the surface looks damp.
Oh and I saw one distant flash last night
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Decent summer weather after it wants to go tropical on 25 Aug (rain with a high of 24!!).
More runs needed.
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I know we can’t post it here but the extended MetO forecast reads more confused than the models are. Never seen so many contradictions. But it eventually comes to the same conclusion as most of us: settled with temps above average.
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Well that stuff that’s now near Norwich gave us 5 minutes of moderate/heavy rain. You wouldn’t be able to tell when you’re looking at the soil. It looks like before. A bit of water left on the garden table as it’s too humid to evaporate quickly.
Everything that’s come over since, regardless of the shade of green, has produced absolutely zero.
It’s warm, muggy and there’s not even the tiniest bit of a breeze.
Grand total so far around 0.25mm, which means that even the most conservative model have overestimated the accumulated precipitation for the past 24 hours by around 5mm (not that 5mm would have done anything to change the desert conditions).
A glimmer of hope maybe looking at the cells over the Channel east of Cherbourg but I think they’ll miss us to the West unless they expand a lot.
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Wohoooo! 5 minutes of heavy rain. All surfaces wet but so true what they say about solid ground. So much runoff even with this small amount.
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
Did move a little bit NE,getting rain here so imagine you will soon.
This is definitely a sound I welcome
3 minutes of big drops lol. Garden table wet, decking was wet for 10 minutes and patio slabs for about 5 minutes.
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39 minutes ago, KTtom said:
ECM joins the UKMO and GFS with a washout on Sunday for the areas that need a good soaking.... B-H also not looking as hot now with a northerly flow from both ECM and GFS.
The ECM has shown a lot of rain for the weekend for days. The GFS keeps flip-flopping but if anything it has once again reduced rain amounts for the weekend.
UKMO in fact leaves large swathes of the East entirely dry. Not sure where the “washout” is being shown.
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Should have known better than get excited. The Central East Kent rain and storm shield remains in full force.
We’ll be lucky to get two minutes of drizzle.
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We may at last be in luck for a few drops or dare I say it, with lots of luck for something convective! That heavier band in the channel SE of Eastbourne has added a few pink specks in the last two radar frames. Might it actually pop before it reaches us in the Kent desert areas?!
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3 minutes ago, minus10 said:
I have to say that i dont think i have ever seen such a crazy outlier as the gfs 12z..
i mean...its on another level...its just ....bonkers.....isnt it ?
I’ll have whatever the Op is having
On a serious note, let’s see what the next two runs produce. It’s clearly exaggerating whatever it has picked up on but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t something to pick up on.
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19 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:
Cornwall seems to have been badly affected according to Tomas S. According to the BBC News, you will be able to received text alerts for flooding from later in the year.
Yes it’s the mobile alert system. Like the emergency alerts in the US and many other countries. Was meant to launch in December, then in the Spring, then in the Summer.
Guess Priti is too busy….
Emergency Alerts - GOV.UK
WWW.GOV.UKYour mobile phone or tablet may get an emergency alert if there’s a danger to life nearby. Alerts tell you what to do to stay safe.-
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3 minutes ago, Lauren said:
It's just so humid! Really need the rain to break it.
Don’t look at the model thread. If it comes off we are looking at 8 days in excess of 30 from 24 August. 5 days getting close to 35.
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Make that 8 days >30 degrees. On 5 days significantly >30 degrees.
Madness.
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6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
I'd like to pinpoint where the jet would be on those charts, high pressure everywhere.. can't see where it would be.
The Jetstream weakens and once again splits as per the study I posted a week or so ago. It splits and goes north of us and the Nordics and the other half goes into Southern Europe towards Turkey.
Same setup as countless times since last autumn.
It’s very visible on the 850 anoms.
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Just now, damianslaw said:
I'm binning the GFS 12z as a rogue run, nonsensical, nothing about if is plausible long term.. no jetstream whatsoever. How it kills the jet early next week and evaporates what is quite a deep low over Iceland is suspect, thereafter its just bizarre.
Yeah that’s what many of us said in July and then again 3 weeks ago…….
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That’s 6 days in excess of 30 degrees, 3 days touching 35. Starting from 24 Aug.
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Whaaaaat is GFS doing?!!!?
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8 minutes ago, TN9 said:
Last shower in that line gave a rumble over Bromley but since died out ..Hoo peninsular has had one all afternoon by the looks of radar (this side of Thames i mean) rest are north of it
Ha! You know that the area from Tonbridge, RTW over to Maidstone down to Folkestone and Rye is a desert and will remain a desert. Maybe we can start growing figs and if we import water some lemons, oranges and olives!
For ages it appears to be a case that unless we import a decent storm from the Cherbourg area we just don’t get one. General rain for the last 8-10 months seems to only happen with low pressure over Benelux spinning showers to the West (like in the last week of May which was the last proper rain we had and naturally caused May to be the one month since November to have average rain amounts).
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23 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Hopefully not ECM embarrassing itself again with its overzealous precip forecasts.....although to be fair GEM dumps widely 20-40mm this weekend too.
Unfortunately the GFS moves most of it further north so at this point there is so consensus. As for GEM, while often useful, if its predicted rainfall amounts had come off over the last thee months then we would be in a far less severe drought situation than we currently are.
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Really could not make it up. Latest blended modelling gives the SE corner of the UK a grand total of 2-4mm in the next 8 days. Even UKV (haven’t looked at it but am just going by the MetO app) seems to have removed everything today and tomorrow with a small chance of something convective on Wednesday. MetO forecast text a bit more positive.
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7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Well we don't have a Winter 2022 thread but the August update from the LRF's aren't a disaster at this stage...
Depends on your view.
7/8 indicate anomalous high pressure which will do nothing for the drought situation. Remember, many parts need in excess of 150% of the average Aug-Mar rainfall to kind of get back to normal.
If you’re hoping for an autumn and winter with calm weather then it looks like your wishes will be granted.
Temps, contrary to what one would expect with the above average high pressure and blocking patterns currently predicted, are indicated to be above average with a 60-70% probability.
That’s good news for energy bills but not so much for those who look forward to a cold winter.
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by seb
Unbelievable. I can literally see the rain falling looking out of my window towards the west. I am also admiring some rotation and thunder. But other than a few big drops, we have nothing.
I'll take it back
Expect the unexpected... lovely cell just formed SE of me out of nowhere, bringing lightning, loud thunder and some rain!