seb
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Posts posted by seb
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8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Not one op run, the trend is creeping north now. Still a high snow risk but rather from waves in the low centered over the uk than a convective easterly
A more northerly track also puts us at a greater risk of slider snowfall
A trend? Models jumping back and forth. If the next 4 ECM runs and the next 8 GFS runs show everything staying norths or moving west, then we can talk about a trend.
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2 minutes ago, Singularity said:A high centred in line with central Greenland is not west-based.
Say the 12z GFS verified 100% (imagine that!), it would be a very frustrating run of weather for me in the far south... but the key details are all 6+ days from now so I frankly couldn't give a flying fish at this stage. For all we know, the airmass over Scandinavia could correct a degree or two colder or less cold in the days ahead, which would significantly affect how much leeway we have with the path of the trough and interacting lows.I will become a bit concerned if the 12z ECM is anything like the 00z, though. I've seen enough very wet and windy weather for this year!
This 100%.
I'm just baffled how some people can be watching each run frame by frame to then spot random features being introduced or moved around by a few hundred miles. I mean for heaven's sake, we suddenly have a channel low showing up of the GFS Op out of the blue. If that isn't telling that all the models are struggling with how to handle the huge pool of cold air and the blocking off of the Atlantic then I don't know what would.
I'm going to say it again. BIG picture. That has not changed in days. It will be colder from next week and much colder from the latter part of next week. All the potential we can possibly ask for is there and that is exceptional for this time of year.
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Beautiful. GFS kills the low roundabout 236 hours and pushes its remains to the SE without ever coming close to impacting us. Makes much more sense than what the ECM produced earlier. Exactly what you'd expect with that huge area of high pressure blocking the low and also in line with jet (which the ECM's solution was not).
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10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Really want east a smidge and south.. I really can't stress enough that the ECM sets up where we land around day 9 onwards at day 5 and 6 which it's pretty accurate on usually...
While there's a valid point in what you're saying (i.e. setup from day 6 leads to what is shown for day 9+) , the ECM wants to create a low which is far, far too intense to be plausible. That's not surprising given what it is trying to do but it's also not going to verify like that (just look at the mean vs the op). It follows that with a chunk of the intensity of the low being removed the cold isn't going to be pushed back as far as shown in the latter part of the op and we end up far closer to what is shown on other models.
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And once again, a perfectly normal model wobble-about of 200 miles at 9 days from now is causing doom and panic.
Please look at the big picture. Please remember how much models struggle in this kind of setup.
The overall setup has not changed, it remains brilliant and extraordinary for early December.
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5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
I think there is similarities between this run and this mornings run, it's a good run though because you get the initial proper cold blast followed by slack low pressure with the potential for some nice frosty weather.
Obviously if you want something more long term, the initial northerly needs to be further eastwards but amplification to remain as good as the ECM shows and not like the UKMO run for example.
I think the differences are far greater than similarities?
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I mean I won’t ever take snow charts seriously even within a 24 hour time frame but I’ll bank 4cm and lows of -6 for my neck of the woods a week from today
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And at 144 it still looks great
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3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Steady on Seb lets not celebrate yet.
3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:Please don't jinx it!
Lol. I think it’s a beauty so far.
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ECM wobble corrected by the looks of it.
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Those are some really good charts so far this afternoon. Let's see what the ECM will do.
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10 minutes ago, Downburst said:
And News Years Eve 1979, I remember walking to a neighbour's house holding my mother's hand so we wouldn't slip in the snow, so two years in a row back then with snow for new years
Dec 31 1979 , It was flartastic, in a Boney M kind of way chart viewers)
NYE 1978 - I was only a few months old but my parents had a party in our new house. People arrived in pouring rain. By midnight there were nearly 10cm of snow. By 3am it was up to 20cm and when everybody woke up around 10am there was well over 30cm, blue skies and a hard frost.
My parents still talk about it. Never seen anything like it before and never since.
They lived in central Germany at the time but from what I know things were similar everywhere?
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5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:
Just look back the last few pages, the GFS has been all over the place! It's like it's been out for too many drinks, while ECM has been mostly stable it's in output.
Only till this morning apparently it's not good enough because its showing the wrong output.
Yes, this afternoon will be very important but we shouldn't disregard models because of their output.
It’s good enough for me lol. And of I had to bet I’d say it’ll look just fine again in the next run or the one after that
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3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:
Looks like the GFS is now the hero, because of one poorer run from the ECM.
Keep in mind that the ECM is a slightly more reliable then the GFS, I don't think I need to explain about the GFS recently too...
Don't think there needs to be any hero lol. Every single model is going to wobble a bit. This kind of setup is always confusing to the models and every time they try do weird things in one run which then completely vanish in the next.
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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
But if I post a chart of the CURRENT run that should be a given.
I’m not here to specifically spoon feed beginners. I’ve been here for 12 years on this forum, my post style has never changed.
But it isn’t a given for many. I’m not going to argue and I know what you meant and mean but many don’t. I think it’s great that we have a lot of people who are interested but not as knowledgeable as others and I just think that it’s important to be clear when analysing individual runs.
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12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:Yes…I posted the EC frame and analysed what it would bring as surface conditions. It’s what this thread is for?
As for your second point, I don’t just analyse the ECM you know
So really what you wanted to say was:
If the ECM Op verified as per this morning’s run then we’d end up with cold rain for most.
That’s valid and I assume that’s what you meant. But what you actually said, together with the general OTT reaction by some, implies to those less knowledgeable that instead of cold and potentially snow we are now expecting miserable wet and cold weather which simply is not true.
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:No one’s predicting cold rain on the 10th December. It’s merely what the ECM shows.
It’s the model discussion thread, we’re discussing what the model shows.
Come on. You posted a chart from the ECM Op for 10 December and said “cold rain for most”. There’s loads of people here who don’t have your knowledge and will take that as what will happen.
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One word… CALM.
Models will wobble as always in this kind of setup. There’s no point worrying about “too far west” on charts showing a potential scenario at 9+ days and there’s definitely no reason to predict “cold rain” for all on 10 December.
The overall setup hasn’t changed.
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Calm needed. Ignore individual runs and look at the big picture.
A change in pattern is about to occur and the train of one front from the Atlantic after another is about to end.
All possibilities that come with the pattern which is about to be in place are in play.
No one promised snow, no one promised there would be a BFTE, no one has mentioned extreme cold. However all of those are possibilities as is a return to a dominating Atlantic or calm, grey boring cool/cold weather.
One fact remains - it’s been years since we had a setup this early in winter that allows for all those possibilities.
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Looks like some exciting times ahead
As always, it is good to remember not take individual runs in isolation, not to take the Ops as gospel and to look at the overall patterns. Anything 8+ days is FI but if Models overall are close with their solutions then that is good guidance.
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Rain!! We have proper rain with puddles
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23 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:
Bit off track here, but spending billions of pounds on Supermodels has resulted in them still overestimating things then has it been a waste of money? How far ahead in forecasting accuracy terms are we than, say, the late 2000s?
It’s much more accurate. It wouldn’t have been possible to more or less nail down a heatwave 14 days in advance. But models are based on previous data, behaviour and outcome. If something changes in way that hasn’t happened inside the period which models have access to then they’ll struggle.
Of course all the investments are not only aimed at mid-range forecasting and its accuracy. Huge sums are invested in more and more accurate short term modelling which is extremely important for flooding, tornadoes, storms and so on.
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Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I think given the last sentence of your post, I'll leave you to it rather than responding and discussing "correctness".