wolvesfan

Morning all, Model output not good for cold again,previous flirts with trying to rise heights further north now gone for the time being,ensembles now supporting further mild also. http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png Background signals are better but the Greenland vortex still firmly in charge,it needs another hammer blow.

Personally i can't see whats wrong with the post from weatha20,the three statements are all correct,the NAO,AO are forecast to trend negative this will decrease westerly airflow for the uk,and increase easterly airflow to the polar region bringing about a northen hemisphere pattern change.Ridging is also being shown from a mid atlantic high and troughing to eastern europe on most of the mods at the moment.I'm a less experienced model watcher and it wasn't missleading to me.

Far realms of fi albeit but note the blocking over the pacific pumping warm uppers up into the arctic,something to look for maybe?,first time i've seen it this winter.

Just when it looked like we were getting a few positive signs from the GFS,ECM backtracks and gives us a kick in the teeth,just hope it's a mild run amongst the ensemble members but the way this winters going i doubt it.

Evening all, ECM similar to 00z keeping us on the cold zonal path with the uk north of the pfj.output for me isn't as bad from a cold perspective as some fellow model watchers are making out.ECM may well have us on a path to some proper cold,but as we've seen before it's not going to be a quick transition, i for one think we are on the right track though.

Morning all, I for one am going to enjoy ECM, clearly the best output we've seen for a while,its not deep cold by any means but a clear pattern change nevertheless.A cold period IMHO could well develop from ECM,mid atlantic high pressure building further north,Russian block building and NAO,AO trending more -ve. UK met not as amplified as ECM at around t144,but both models much better viewing than GFS thats spewing relentless mild at the moment.

Evening all, Hope ECM dosn't trend towards GFS on tonights run,it really is carrying our hopes at the moment as the GFS truly is dire for cold. Many a cold winter has followed a mild spell like the one we are seeing at the moment,we do need to see a change soon though and hopefully ECM is leading the way in regards to a pattern change,it won't be the first time its been quickest off the mark.

Evening all, ECM,GFS both mods showing a quieter atlantic than we've seen recently,low pressure formation and intensity also seems reduced,could we be seeing a transition period to something more high pressure dominated?.IMHO i wouldn't be surprised to see heights rise further north than we've seen so far this winter,mods are hinting at this currently.

Better from the 6z,high pressure building from the atlantic Northwards into Greenland ,also the polar vortex dissruted and intensity transferring to northern Russia as i posted about yesterday.One run albeit but first positive sign for a while.

Hi BA, Do you have the link to view please.

Hi Nick, I agree there's no major dissruption to the polar vortex at the moment,my guess is the models could start to show this in the next 7-10 days as the strat warms around northern Canada into west Greenland.As i've said before though i'm no expert.cheers.

Morning all, Models not looking good for short term cold prospects at the moment,but we are seeing signs from the main three models of a dissruption of the polar vortex that has been in sittu around Greenland.A dissplacement of this which IMHO is possible in the near future will give a greater possibility of northern lattitude ridging from the azores high,or even a mid atlantic block to our west. A lot of talk has gone into a pressure rise to our north east but could this area be a location for the vortex to setup?.The GFS stratospheric 30hpa chart,which is forecasting a warming moving into northen Canada and reaching western Greenland shortly will surely help to dissplace the vortex from its current location?.The stratosphere is anomolously cold so a dissplacement of the polar vortex probably the best we can hope for. I'm no expert though and what i'm seeing are my thoughts and oppinions so are more likely to be wrong as my model watching is still in it's infancy.

Morning all, ECM this morning showing azores high being flattened around t192 and a return to a zonal flow,polar air back over the uk just after christmas. All the three main models continue to show dissruption to the polar vortex on the northern hemisphere charts,wether we can can see dissplacement from it's current position around Greenland remains to be seen,but this would be a step forward for cold longevity next month.

Morning all, Shocking output for us cold lovers at the moment. I'm no expert but IMHO and as the models are showing, we will not see any northern lattitude blocking anytime soon.The stratosphere is anomolously cold at the moment and although some of the models have been showing the polar vortex to set up around northern Russia,the transition will take time(if it happens at all). I think until we see some change in the strat and the polar vortex the models won't change significantly from what we're seeing at the moment. Do hope i'm wrong though.

Hi GSL, There is a change regarding the tropospheric vortex,if you look at the northern hemisphere chart you will see it transfer from west of Greenland eastwards towards northern Russia,i'm not sure but this may be to do with the stratospheric warming thats being forecast around north America and Canada.

Hi YBY, Its a bit like toothache for me at the moment,take a paracetemol and you get a little relief,the NW incursions being the paracetemol.My appologies for the negativity.

Morning all, Models continuing to show us cold fans what we don't want to see(average/mild synoptics).We shouldn't be surprised though stratosphere still anomolously cold,polar vortex still strong,+NAO,+AO. The odd NW incursion probably the best we can expect until we see some significant change(if we ever do).

Couldn't that ridge fuel a pressure rise to scandi?.

Not sure if i buy the latest GFS output,i'll refrain judgement whilst the ensembles are out.

Evening all, models this evening agreeing to calm the weather down from around t144,with high pressure building delivering a sw flow ready for christmas.Overall december has been quite eventful,considering all the background signals that have been stacked against any cold longevity. Both models continue to build the russian anti cyclone,GFS in particular builds it westwards into scandi to finish the run.

Morning John, Whats's your take on it?, Cheers.

Morning all, ECM 00z,Interesting to see after a stormy week coming up,high pressure next week building over the uk and eventually linking with the russian anti cyclone close to the christmas period,what's instore for the new year?.

I certainly hope ECM are closer to the mark this evening with there downgrade of fridays low,after all who would want that 940mb low to crash through the uk a week before christmas.

Morning all, All talk at the moment focused on the upcoming storms and rightly so,worth noting though next weekends arctic blast when fridays storm has passed.I suspect one or two of us might be wishing for a bartlett scenario after whats going to be thrown at us over the next week.

Warming probably will occur in december but historicaly to my knowledge i think there has only been around three ssw's in december during the last 60 years or so.i would think january would be the month if we were to see a ssw happen.I may well be wrong though.