wolvesfan

Hi chiono,Thank you for your answer,as is often the case though your answer has led to another question.You state that the ozone levels are low do we see this anually at the start of winter or is there another reason?,thanks again. G,P's post above answers this question,thanks

Hello chio,would you have expected the srat to be cooler this year than the previous two,taking an increase in the solar flux levels we are seeing at the moment into acount or does this only have a minor affect when coupled with the QBO,thanks for your time.

Hi all, Met office extended outlook pretty much hand in glove with what we're viewing from the model output at the moment.looks like all the current atmospheric,oceanic,teleconections,are simply stacked too highly for anything colder than average.not much hope for anything other than typical late autumn/early winter conditions for the forseeable i'm afraid.the changes we need arn't yet in model range for any proper sustained cold,something needs to change from whats driving the pattern.the stratosphere showing some signs of warming would be a good start,the arctic needs to be unlocked for us to see conditions like what the past trio of winters have delivered.cheers

Morning all, Theres a bit more agreement with ECM,GFS on this mornings output.i think in the overall pattern things are pretty set until we get something to change this.the devil is in the detail for the shorter term but the colder polar air staying with us from t126 onwards.things could be better but they could also be a lot worse as the big euro high never too far from our shores.

please keep banging on john,its posts like yours that are giving amateurs like me a greater understanding of what we are viewing.cheers.

Hi TWS,isn't that yesterdays ECM?.

Hi Nick,Were we ever going to see a speedy descend into winter from the euro high scenario,mods gave us a fast track solution for a time but the overall pattern has worked against this,i agree with your point that the average conditions are a victory,our descend into winter might just have to be a little slower than what we would like,but at least we may now be heading in the right direction.cheers.

Morning all, ECM showing the mid atlantic high pressure retrogress again then build slightly towards greenland,it's done this on quite a few runs now.not expecting it to bulid any further north but it could be more favourable for NW incursions for the uk.also might help dent the SW flow and help to get troughing into central europe as the jet amplifies.deffinatly a more exiting spell of weather coming up.

Morning all, Gfs not looking good for us cold lovers this morning,after a brief fly in the ointment next weekend the pattern resets with high pressure centred slightly further SW.end result SW airflow across the uk for the foreseable.

I think fi on the 6z could actually turn out to be rather acurate on this ocassion.think we might need some ssw this year.pattern thats emerging could be prolonged.hope not though.

Big lesson for me watching this unfold,not sure if i like the lesson conclusion though,we could well be seeing decembers pattern set, i do hope not.

Hi Nick,I think we had a pre warning last night from G.P,as to what could well happen. i do hope he's wrong.but i do fear the worse after reading your thoughts.cheers.

Hi all, I'm somewhat confused from what i've been reading,we have at the moment high pressure to our east,it hasn't been able to build far enough north because of the strong jet(cold strat)it is now starting to subside.as a more zonal flow takes over we may see some colder air introduced as troughing heads into europe and drags in cold air on its northern flank.how will pressure get a chance to rise in scandi with the jet tracking straight through?.if pressure rises to our NE whilst we're under meridional flow won't that leave us in colder siberian/arctic air?.

we better hope it centres further west than whats shown then,

Does this mean a temperary breakdown then back to what we've had for the past five weeks?.

I think the optimism comes from losing that great slab of high pressure pressure we've had parked off our east coast for the past five weeks.

Evening all, ECM starting to look similar to GFS this evening with it's output.quite ironic really the mere fact we are now seeing arctic air being modeled over the uk (albeit in fi).one week ago most were writing nov and first two weeks of dec off.if we see some verification many would be seeing their first snow before autumn has finished.what a surprise that would turn out to be.

We are heading towards solar maximum though and its still relatively quiet compared to other maximum periods.

In principal very possible though.

Its been there on the last three runs as well.

Hello all, GFS 6z may be a cold outlier,but it's showing in principal likely synopsis of what a zonal flow may deliver,i think one or two might be surprised as the pattern sets up,nothing in longevity, but theres lots of cold air to our NW to tap into,and plenty of reload oppurtunity.

Morning all, It's now looking likely we are shortly entering a more active spell of weather,GFS,ECM UK met,all agreeing in principal to a more zonal spell aproaching the uk.we could also see temps well below recent values and indeed could well drop below average for northern areas bringing the first wintry PPN if GFS 6z verified.novembers end could be quite a contrast to the begining of the month.

Morning all, Interesting to see ECM continuing with its earlier idea of a pressure build into the mid atlantic and then NW.pressure also high around greenland at that time.

Evening all, ECM not unlike 00z,still wanting to build pressure towards greenland by the end.

Evening all, Quite ironic realy tonights GFS 12z,next weekend thats the 25th looks like we could be under -5 uppers,and one or two of us might see the first wintry precipitation of the season as that low pulls away.I think if it vaifys it'll be quite a shock to a few,and there could well be one or two eating there hats.