wolvesfan

Morning all, Nice to hear the background signals looking better fo a possible pattern change. GFS,better run this morn but it is showing lowest pressue synopsis of the ensembles, ECM,eventually now starting to flatten the euro,bringing in the atlantic.FI showing pressure rising into greenland h500 giving it a chance showing little in the way of low pressure around at that time. Its taken long enough but we may soon be waving goodbye to the euro,can't say i'll miss it.

Evening all, I know GFS in particular is showing a more atlantic influence from aound t120 on 12z ,i wouldn't be at all surprised to see pressure remain high though,a lot of the ensemble members continuing to keep it high. I'm hoping we do see something more zonal as i think this is our best shot for anything colder,if we can keep north side of the polar jet i think theres plenty of oppurtunity for NW incursions that will bring -5 uppers delivering snowfall,we know they'll be shortlived affairs but the pattern will bring reloads.this IMHO our best shot for cold pre christmas. As we see a seasonal reduction of the sub tropical ridge as winter progresses,and also a warming of the strat which could happen at some point,seeing though it's colder than normal at the moment,we may then see mid to northern lattitude high pressure have more oppurtunity to build into cold delivering position.

Morning,Neither comment made any reffrence to the upcoming winter,my comment was based on what the models have shown for the past six weeks,and continue to show for the upcoming high res part of the model run.its a model thread to disscuss what they are showing when the runs have completed, not to discuss our upcoming winter predictions.

the models are anything but normal at the moment,they have and are continuing to model one of the mildest autumnal patterns of weather we have seen for along time.

Evening all, Not one crumb of comfort whatsoever from this evenings output if like me your looking for cold,i was hoping to see some progress from the atlantic, that IMHO the only way out of this pattern.no cold will come from this euro high we can dress it up as much as we like.

Morning all, i think from a cold perspective we need the atlantic to win out ASAP,the only way we'll get any cold from the euro is for the jet to undercut(not likely though) and detatch it from the sub tropical ridge,this after all is its fuel supply, its just a huge rupture from it's wall.it needs to be flattened and then we've got a better chance of PM air thrown in the mix as a more zonal flow can be resumed.this about the best outcome in retrospect of all the background signals.nothing cold will come from the euro sub tropical high IMHO.cheers.

sorry to be pedantic but do you mean SSW.

Evening all, That looks like a nasty low pressure system?.

Evening all, GFS 12z showing a likely example of what could happen,even with all the background signals pointing towards mild theres no reason why we shouldn't see these kind of synoptics verify at some stage.we know fi unlikely to happen but my poinf being the models are still throwing up cold synoptics irregardless of other factors.

Hello John,Great post,earlier on today i posted a h500 chart from 00z t384 GFS,would the wave pattern on this chart be indicative of what you have described in your post,thanks for your time.

Hello all, There seems lots to be downbeat about if like me you are a lover of the cold,but the conclusion i have come to from carefull consideration from what's being said at the moment is,we might not be going to see record breaking prolonged cold spells but cold is still highly possible, e.g. NW incursions if we see the atlantic win out and also inversion cold from a better positioned european antcyclone,these just two possibility's but i'm sure the list is endless.the pattern does seem to be pretty set at the moment but as others have said it will vary and is still capable of producing cold weather.my glass is deffinatly half full.

Morning all, Appologies for this question but i am a mere novice, The above chart which i'm using as an example,to me shows a better amplified wave pattern pattern which started in the pacific,would i be correct in thinking this is what we need to see in regards to a change in the pattern we are experiencing at the moment?,thanks for any replies.

Thanks Nick for taking the time to reply,much appreciated.

Hi Nick,Even though we have a cooler than average stratosphere at the moment,wont the position of the polar vortex determin wether a height rise to our NW is achievable as opposed to how cool the stratosphere is?,appologies if this a silly question.cheers,

i think he's expecting it to turn cooler shortly?.

Morning all, GFS 6z,continuing to stall the atlantic unlike last nights runs,low pressure shunted round the top and high pressure staying close to our east and building from the south giving it support.looking likely the switch to a more zonal type flow now being delayed yet again.i for one am starting to wonder when we're going to see some sort of pattern change?be interesting to see UKmet extended update later.

Around 6-7pm this evening.

Morning all, Interesting models this morning,GFS stalling the atlantic further from yesterdays runs,the jet tracking further NE over the top then completes the run with high pressure being sucked up into greenland.ECM gives us a scandi high by around t192 and undercuts with some energy from the jet to finsh,this propbably best for any cold lovers.big diffrences then from ECM,GFS regarding the scandi high,i did think yesterday GFS was a little hasty in flattening pressure to our east,it will be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming runs.

Hello Summer blizzard,Would you say la nina was more typical to the blocked anticyclonic conditions we have seen for the past month or so then?i was under the impression la nina was more associated with slightly more atlantic dominated weather patterns?for the uk.i am a little naive so any advice would be much appreciated,cheers.

Hello all, Just been reading other posts regarding the current state of things as they stand,wouldn't you think we would be seeing a lot more mobile atlantic?,we seem to have everything running in its favour,strong vortex,NAO positive,la nina, all seem to favour the atlantic,but the mods showing blocking being the dominant picture although being in the mid lattitude region,still it does seem to be contradicting what we should be seeing.

Hello all, I think its debatable wether the atlantic will win out as shown past t168 on GFS 6z,ECM seems to dissagree and keeps pressure strong and in situ to our east,i dont think we can read too much in whats being shown from this point onwards as GFS could be being too progresive as others have stated.tonights ECM will be interesting to see what it does around t168 for me.cheers all.

Morning all, Just been looking through this mornings updates not very inspiring to say the least.above ECM looks about the closet we get to any pressure rise in a favourable position for cooler weather,just wandering if that troughing close to our NW near Greenland might be downgraded closer to the time and give it more of a chance.but then again i'm propbably just cluthching at straws.

Thaught i'd cheer one or two up showing the 528dam line,might not see it again for a while.

Hello Ian,I'd take that as opposed to the euro high.at least it's a pattern that can change within days as unlike the euro.cheers.

Evening all, Must say it's quiet in here today. The mods at least taking the jet south of the UK that has to be a start?, it was always going to be a slow transition to lose the euro.if we can stay N side of the jet at least any pressure builds around us will consist of a polar not tropical air mass,IMHO things arn't as bad as they seem as long as we keep that polar air anything can happen.cheers.