wolvesfan

The stratosphere is showing warming signs at the moment,wether this will continue remains to be seen,any ssw in december was always going to be unlikely though. GFS 12z does show a highly possible outcome and it would fit hand in glove with the latest met office outlook,not what us cold lovers want but sometimes it's what you get i'm afraid. We may well need to endure pressure rise from the south at some stage.

Hi jim_AFCB,Like i said in my post i'm no expert.This particular zonal spell seems to be diffrent from what we normally see in respects of the jet angle,so what other factor other than the strong tropospheric polar vortex would you think can be driving this?.High pressure to our south is being steam rollered at the moment.cheers.

Hi Weathizard, I'm no expert but IMO i would think the pattern we're in at the moment is set for the next couple of weeks at least,the stratosphere is unusually cold and subsequantly the tropospheric polar vortex is very strong as we're seeing at the moment.Wether we get high pressure building in from the south remains to be seen,but the models do keep showing this in the low res part of there runs,for this to happen though you would expect to see some sort of reduction or displacement of the polar vortex.

Evening all, Overall IMHO i think we're in a lot better position in respects of cold for the UK than a couple of weeks ago.Temperatures have tumbled and we're now seeing below average values.Everyone won't see snow but a lot happening nevertheless. We might not be seeing severe cold but taking everything into consideration strat,etc we could be doing a lot worse,bartlett and euro high for example. I for one will gladly take tonights output its not historic or record breaking but it's a damn site better than what we've had to endure this autumn.

Mornin all, Yesterdays mid atlantic pressure build from the GFS now gone,too much power in the vortex at the moment. ECM,showing pretty standard early winter zonal weather for most. No signs of the SW flow one or two were predicting either which is a big plus for us cold fans.

Evening all, Good output tonight for us cold lovers considering around a week ago we were finding it hard to see where any cold would come from.I think we are set for an interesting upcoming period,it would be surprising though if we get any longevity from it, severe cold also looks improbable taking into consideration all the background signals,cold strat etc but outlooks much better now the limpet euro high has gone.lets hope for a few more upgrades from the mods.

Hi all, Wondered if this is of use to anyone,shows ssw that have taken place in the past.Also the mean stratospere temps since 1955, http://www.geo.fu-be...pole/index.html

Its a mid atlantic high,it's formed south of the polar front jet so would be filled with relativly mild air and i would say cloudy as moisture is fed into it from the atlantic.night time minimums or around 0c daytime maxima around 5-10c but dependant of cloud cover.

Looks like good agreement tonight between ECM,GFS for next weekends cold snap.

Hi all, It was january 1985,the polar outbreak,a SSW ocured when the strat warmed by around 13c,cheers.

Hi mrsmall,If it sets up over greenland cool wet and windy propbably with a strong westerly flow.If we get high pressure to our South east propbably a milder south west flow.Not good for snow and proper cold,cheers.

Hi all, The strentgh of the polar vortex keeping the flow mobile at the moment,there may be a chance of it also saving us from the the pressure rise from our south that the models seem keen on.At best i think we will only end up with a westerly flow though.

I think the only thing it does prove is that because of our geographical position we are likely to experience vastly diffrent patterns of weather.surely the global warming/cooling comment not relevant to this thread.

I think we could be setting up a 24hour vigil in the stratosphere temp thread also.

I agree we seem to be heading back to the euro/bartlett high regardless of which path we take,for me the stratosphere being the main driver at the moment.Thats IMHO where we need to be looking for change not the models.cheers.

GFS 12z Yes the pressure rise around 1st december from the SW dosn't seem right,not at all in tune with recent model runs,one for the rubbish bin i think.

Hi C,CWith the strat at the moment being 10c colder than it's mean,no wonder anything cold isn't being shown in the synoptics.personally though i'm hoping we see a reversal of last year,i dont think we will see the strat continue to cool after december like it did last year.I also wouldn't be surprise to see a ssw propbably in early january but thats me just trying to keep positive i suppose.cheers.

Hello Chiono,In your opinion what do you think the chances of a SSW are before january?could this be how this year we see the srat return to a more average temp?cheers.

Afternoon all, The pattern really is depresing at the moment for us cold lovers,the stratosphere running 10c colder than it's november mean at the moment driving the tropospheric vortex leading to a +AO.it sems we need some sort of a warming event then in the strat to help us out here,i've looked but can only see of 3 SSW that have taken place in december since 1955(i could be wrong so please someone correct me if so)so the pattern well likely to continue untill we see more natural warming from january onwards.cheers all.

Hi Nick.Is the dissagreement basically where the mean troughs set up to the eastern US and the UK?,cheers.

Morning all, Far reaches of fi albeit but we could be looking at early modelling of the elusive scandi high which i'm sure is going to set this thread on fire as winter progress's(if it varifies).

Eveving all, I might well be wrong because i am a mere novice in interpreting what the models are showing.But imho a change of any significance wont be seen until the arctic is unlocked,we need to see a warming to the stratosphere then a reduction in the polar vortex and a subsequant -AO.we may then see mid/high lattitude blocking set up and a shot at cold longevity.PM incursions depending on the mean trough position are our best chance for the forseeable,i hope i'm wrong and if i am please someone put me on the right track,cheers.

Hi wimblettben,The post i made was more in relation to the overall patern change it shows,specifically the transfer of the troughing we have had to the SW of the uk to the position the run shows around italy,cheers.

Evening all, ECM,looking better tonight with a SE tracking PFJ,the trough t our SW replaced with high pressure.lots of high pressure cells over NW canada into greenland.slight upgrades for cold for the uk.

Hello Chiono,I've gathered from the post from G,P that we are in a -QBO at the moment,there are also remnants of a +QBO.How long do the phases last?,would a +QBO be more conjusive to a SSW?,thanks again.