wolvesfan

Thanks John.

HI All, would the cold being shown for for Russia be unusual for the time of year if it varified?its just that i cant recall seeing any of the purple shading that far south of the arctic before,normally deep blue and further into winter.

Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011 Settled mid-November Issued: Saturday 5th November 2011 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob 'Winter is on my head, but eternal spring is in my heart'. Victor Hugo (1802 - 1885) There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern. The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December. The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas. Morning,this is from weather online it seems to tie in well with where the ECMWF might be going.

Morning all, ECMWF 00Z this morning maintaning to build pressure in NW area,looks a lot better for cold prospects than it did a couple of days ago,shows how quick things can change.

Hello trisnow,one thing i wouldn't discount when model watching is the hunch,especialy when looking out of the model range,theres no science to back it up but as in life can pay divedends if you trust in it.this is however contreversial to say the least and am not sure if its straying too far off topic but just thought i'd add it.cherrs.

HI phil,Thanks for taking the time to explain.

HI Paul,This would be beneficial to a pattern change would it not?,thats if it did go negative,thanks.

HI GSL,my knowledge of the NAO also very limited but i believe its forecast to go negative shortly, this can result in a less active icelandic low and also the same principal applies to the sub tropical ridge i believe.if i'm correct this would be more conjusive for rising heights to our north.maybe one of the more experienced members could explain better though.thanks.

Evening all,just finished viewing tonights ECMWF,correct me if i'm wrong but big diffrence tonight to me being high pressure now around Baffin out at 240 and also looks like high pressure also to scandi,both areas showing troughing on the 00Z,would this correlate with the NAO turning negative.also i realise still well out of the reliable but thought it could be worth keeping an eye on.

Hi all,ECMWF12z time to get the Ambre Solaire back out.

HI all, just finished viewing GFS barely a single low pressure system to transfer west to east across England in the next 16 days if it verifys.what an extremly benign autumn we are experiencing.i'd like to think we might now be seeing the begining of the end also being progued for the euro high,hope the weekends following runs bring its demise a touch closer,high pressure never far from our shores though.

Hi,i would be most grateful if someone could explain the diffrences,thanks.

Hi Nick,would i be right in lookig for pressure to our south for a pattern change?,thanks.

Hi all, 06z GFS making for better viewing,cut off low pressure towards iberia and also showing the azores ridge being flattened slightly as the jet splits and tracks further south.wonder if we might get more low pressure into the continent from this if it verifys?.

Hi all, slightly better from the models this morning both showing movement in the polar vortex from around next weekend its a long way out but could lead to some opurtunity for a rise in pressure to our N/NW,something to maybe look out for.think we could do with some low pressure to our south though that euro high needs it fuel supply dissrupting.

Hi all,tonights ECMWF looks like dire for anyone wanting cold the euro high set to intensify and by the end of the runs takes us back to where we were a month ago.

Hi all,just been looking at the latest GFS,i think maybe a more zonal type set up from around mid month looks the favourite at the moment especially if my interpretation of the polar vortex setting up over northern canada is correct.

Hello all, ECMWF 00z to be the model most likely to verify from what the top three are showing at the moment,nothing realy to support a sustained rise in pressure to our north.on the other hand pressure to our east well and truly anchored.any ideas as to whats going to break its back anyone?.

At least it might feel more like autumn.

Hello all,GFS has been rocking back and forth with the idea for a pressure rise to our north east for a while but today its braught it a lot closer to the reliable timeframe,also ECMWF,UK met showing some support on this.eastern europe also showing on todays runs to cool significantly from around thursday onwards,wonder if that will have any bearing on our weather donstream?.

Hello again I,F,i was using the euro high as an example of how low pressure cant displace these high pressure areas as they used to.

Hello I.F,if the atlantic is as strong as ever why has blocking become so dominant again.

Hello all,i said earlier to describe the atlantic as being dead was a bold statement but no one can deny the fact that it just doesn't power through like it used to, thats why ireland and the north west has been so wet recently,low pressure hasn't been able to make inroads across england the euro high cant be displaced quickly instead we are seeing a gradual shunting and erosion.

Hello c.h,your theory or hunch seems bang on the money to me.

Hi all,models showing slight changes on latest runs at the moment pressure building more to our north east out in f1 albeit but GFS has been rocking with this idea for a while now,something cooler downstream maybe?.