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Lincs Observation

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  1. Lincs Observation
    Well the countryfile weather is punting for cold weather towards the end of the week, however the thoughts are they have no idea at this time how far south or how cold it will be, they hinted at a small chance of a low tracking across Scotland with potential for widespread snow across Scotland only. to be honest I’d only expect Scotland to have snow this early in the winter. For the rest of us frost at best for the time been.
  2. Lincs Observation
    Do you think he’s having a pop, if so not very sporting
  3. Lincs Observation
    The fact that despite the timescale issue at this time, the models seem to be throwing up various journeys to a cold pattern change must indicate the start of a trend. A bit like focusing in to an object with out of focus binoculars eventually you will get a pin sharp image sooner or later. As someone said yesterday you can’t ignore the trend it’s your friend the noise over a cold spell is getting louder on various social media outlets so I say despite the uncertainty something is afoot
  4. Lincs Observation
    Morning all a selection of images taken last night taken with my iPhone 12 using a 3 & 10 second exposure and at different zoom rates, my daughter assisted me who knew I could do this with my phone I’m hooked a Fantastic night here in Lincolnshire, I think I have found a new hobby totally enjoyed my self last night. the last pic I’m particularly proud of with the plough IMG_1012.dng
  5. Lincs Observation
    Take care there I can only imagine how bad it is there, truly historical events happening right now. And extremely dangerous too.
  6. Lincs Observation
    This is extremely serious stuff down i the Channel Islands probably the most frightening night on record I’d think. This link shows a full bore tornado https://x.com/thesnowdreamer/status/1719893210401591359?s=46&t=FDRXB-PdoXSULLPenJr_eA
  7. Lincs Observation
    well that cleared that up then
  8. Lincs Observation
    But if you let it cool normally how would you know the difference ?
  9. Lincs Observation
    Current recorded wind speeds at 9pm, I suspect things have ramped up a tad since these readings.
  10. Lincs Observation
    That’s not good at all, that would coincide with the storm tracking through that area at its strongest I think, it pains me to say that that sounds like a full on emergency with potential loss of life, surely they must be or are considering evacuation due to the height of the storm surge? my thoughts go out to those poor people tonight
  11. Lincs Observation
    I suffer barometric headaches when pressure changes, once in a pressure pattern I loose the headache until the next change for example high to low low to high. I’ve had a foggy head all day.
  12. Lincs Observation
    Fair comment, however I would argue that with the models predicting a northerly track on a few past runs it was looking like this storm would have had a much more devastating impact, thankfully it’s adjusting south and may just may become less of a uk mainland issue and more a wider French issue. Now I’m not saying there won’t be strong winds but a previous prediction of a 100miles further north would have been horrendous. My Area for instance just north of the Wash was predicted to have upto 80mph winds as the storm exited through the Wash now that’s been scaled back at this time. It’s very flat here and when a storm runs through Lincolnshire can be badly hit.
  13. Lincs Observation
    Beat me too it, yep the big hitters starting to align now, however a tad of caution still needed until the last run of the day I feel things can and have changed in the past at short notice that said modern modelling is pretty accurate these days. looks like the uk has dodged a particularly nasty bullet.
  14. Lincs Observation
    For me my interest will be in its exit, currently progressing to exit via east anglia, this would put us in here in Lincs in a easterly flow of winds in what is a very flat county. The point being it could be quite tasty here for a short time as this storm promptly rattles through.
  15. Lincs Observation
    I think the next four runs possibly 6 runs will still not nail this down, I’m pretty adamant that it not until the early hours of Wednesdays runs that we will have more of a grasp on what is to come. It will be a very last minute dot com situation.
  16. Lincs Observation
    Morning all the latest view, some pretty horrific numbers here
  17. Lincs Observation
    Latest sat image of what will become storm ciaran
  18. Lincs Observation
    Indeed the spread across the models from day to day in fact from output to output just goes to show the real complications of the track of this storm. this has to be the most exciting period since the st Jude’s storm
  19. Lincs Observation
    And I think it will shift again in the models over the next 12-24hrs, I still think that it’s still to early to get to grips with this storm. It’s still in development 3000miles away and with a very strong jet stream and waters at +2.1oC warmer than normal this really could get nasty. like I said earlier my feelings are around Wednesday 00z output as the system approaches the SW by then we will know 12hrs before the real action starts if it hits us, what intensity and track or it is a glancing blow as it tracks to Northern France.
  20. Lincs Observation
    An alternative look curtesy of the weather outlook, model showing track south. with the storm still in development stage the other side of the Atlantic I think personally it won’t be until the 12z Wednesday output we will get some idea of strength, pressure and a possible outcome in direction.
  21. Lincs Observation
    It looks like Thursday lunchtime is the witching hour for Lincolnshire should that graphic be correct with gusts at 80mph, many of the online weather forums are picking up on a possible more northerly track across the Uk, reminds me of the infamous bbc weather report by Michael fish all them years ago
  22. Lincs Observation
    Thoughts of paul blight courtesy of X interesting jet stream speed
  23. Lincs Observation
    Not sure this has been put up for general viewing but here is a graphic courtesy of uk weather updates.
  24. Lincs Observation
    This morning at the Brayford Lincoln.
  25. Lincs Observation
    interesting https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1712522155403931655?s=46&t=FDRXB-PdoXSULLPenJr_eA
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