Grinzzz

Still learning too but from what I've read you're almost right, it increases chances of northern heights building somewhere. From what I can tell this just increases our chances in the weather lottery; it guarantees nothing. Looks like our luck may be in for this weekend and maybe beyond. GP's latest post in the mod thread appears to be suggestive of cold weekend, warming a little (but still staying cool/cold) followed by another cold spell. Given I think he first posted about a mid-January cooling in early December I'll go with his thoughts at the moment and filter out all the bickering in there.A nice cool start to today in west MK, no frost this morning which is a shame - had a nice grass frost at midnight.

I hope I'm reading the models right - looks like quite a few ice days on the cards next week, no matter what falls. The server can't handle the stress you're all causing it

One wonders what Glosea4 is making of the Short - Medium Range forecast at the moment? As I understand it that model uses more stratospheric data/calcs than most others. Is the monthly forecast from it operational now?

Part of Liam Duttons Blog on Ch4 website discussing upcoming weather. First mention I've seen of SSW outside of specialist sites/twitter etc. Any signs of colder weather? In recent days, I’ve had quite a few people asking me on Twitter, Facebook and Google+ whether or not there are signs of it turning colder with snow. The weather computer models are hinting towards a general downward trend in temperature from the middle of January onwards, but at this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty about how cold it is going to get. Another interesting event that is about to take place in the upper part of the atmosphere (the stratosphere), is a sudden stratospheric warming – SSW for short. What happens when sudden stratospheric warming occurs? During the winter months, a polar vortex sits across the north pole in the upper part of the atmosphere. Effectively, this is a huge area of lower pressure around which air flows from west to east in the northern hemisphere – known as a zonal flow. The presence of this zonal flow keeps the weather generally unsettled, with low pressure systems at the surface affecting mid-latitudes locations, such as the UK and north America. However, sometimes, a sudden significant warming can occur in the stratosphere, which has the effect of disrupting the polar vortex and the winds that rotate around it. Initially, the normal west to east flow of air is disrupted 30-50km up in the atmosphere, where it slows down or reverses direction completely. At this point, because it is so high up, it has little effect on the weather we experience at the surface. But what can happen in certain cases is that this disruption of the west to east flow of air can gradually percolate down to the surface. When this happens, blocking areas of high pressure are more likely to form, potentially bringing a big change in weather patterns. At this stage, it is too early to tell exactly what the outcome of the imminent SSW will be because the places getting the coldest air will depend on the location and orientation of any blocking high pressures that form. Nevertheless, the second half of the month could prove interesting – something that I’ll keep you updated on here in my blog and on Twitter – @liamdutton http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/year-brings-weather/2730

Liam Dutton on Ch4 website has mentioned the SSW and it's potential effects. Only one I've seen so far outside of twitter hints etc.

Very light snow falling in Milton Keynes right now. This wasn't supposed to arrive until tonight according to this mornings met. Looks like the midlands might get the worst of it from the radar.