legritter

as GEORDIE SNOW said ,could be a very cold end feb for states /canada , LETS HOPE IT RUNS IN OUR DIRECTION ,must keep an eye on jet streem , i know there,s a saying of 10 days later for us , but doesnt happen that way very often , but CAN ,and has and will again , plenty of deep cold in arctic ,only looking at end of GFS run ,perhaps ECM will start giving us some candy soon , certainly interesting days to come , as i said ,perhaps MR AZORES is giving his best this week before scramming off , cheers gang

ok ,looking at all charts this week looking very mild ,.next week wc /27th dry /mildish ,to start . but im looking at there being a pay back in march ,or should i say a possible cold spell , GFS is hinting at high pressure in its later stages ,and reading between the lines with met of further outlook ,its seems to be covering itself with a cold spell mentioned .perhaps with azores high sinking or scramming of ,this is just a hunch ,but im sure that the recent cold spell was not the only mayor cold shot of the winter , although if it does arrive in march it will be classed by most as early spring .early march cold weather can be very interesting . especially with stronger sun and good mixing ,perhaps .perhaps this weeks high temperatures could be the last dying gasp of our friend MR AZORES cheers legritter

watched iss on computer with the plotting of its path about a year ago .it was passing over costa rica about 9pm at night ,within less than 30 mins it passed over southern britain . i went indoors made a cup of tea and it was passing down over bulgaria in minutes . back two years ago i watched ISS pass through lunar halo / lunar halos ,have been around millions and millions of years /ISS new boy on the block / kind of special ,moment .

high ,BORN FROM THE VOID ,just been up garden for a look at jup /ven ,very clear night ,makes you wonder mind whats out there ,probably trillions of planets times a few trillion ,i will put 12/13 th march in my diary ,regards legritter

darker now than 8 this morning ,wind picking up rain moderate . all the jackdaws are gone ,just flown of in a big flock . looks like an hour or so of v heavy rain . best of luck for you up north ,this could be youre day ,regards legritter

temp droped 1 c /rain and sleet 80mtrs ASL /hoping front slows a little / some wet flakes now falling by lamp / best of luck gang

hope everyone gets something either today tomorrow or next week .wind in west now ,but still minus ,just had a look at sat pic ,this is building up for a classic ,im going out now to put out garden furniture , ready for photo shoot .iv got to beet 24cms to tie with record since iv been living winscombe for 12 yrs , could just about swing it if front SLOWS ,i like the look of next weeks charts

i just wish more people would have smoky fires in chimney as i love to watch smoke , gives a lot of clues to wind direction and pressure ,bring it on ,but lets wait till tonights faxes . going down village now to turn on lamps on lamp posts ,DONT TELL COUNCILL

could be very interesting late wed /thurs ,fronts coming in from west .depends on angle of attack and how far west cold uppers get ,keep an eye on fax charts and wording on met forecasts . and dont forget those of you who are newes , you dont have to be smack on the front to get precipitation , so long as the milder air behind doesn,t get dragged to low down ,fingers crossed ITS US THIS TIME cider at the ready i,v got thatchers down the road ,over the mendips in a mo ,to see mum ,law ,good buz on modell thread ,enjoy

evening gang ,steady rain with a lit sleet here aprox 90 mtrs /.asl , wind just picked up a bit , got the halogan light on outside . just need temp to drop a bit and the front to orientate more nw /se .a bit ,and we could pull in some slightly lower air . temperature wise . presipitation could last another 10hrs or so ,so with a bit of luck we could see some white stuff , there is some redder colours to our west and north ,cheers legritter

looking at all of todays output so far i think that low pressure will move s/e across the uk at about 120/144 hrs from now ,. tonights 192 hrs ecm i am HOPING will be the start of the change , its also worth using the gfs 144hrs / 192hrs for trend setting ,been on a GFS HUNT IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ,and its been pretty good last couple of days predicting local ised weather events .i am sure that all professional met office personal have some very good model scenarios at the moment but are sworn to secrecy ,im going to give these postage stamp things a go soon , best of luck all ,

its time for a new chapter gang , it will be very interesting uk met 144 hrs and ECM 168 hrs . as i hinted yesterday we could see a migration south of some good cold air . met office must be pretty confident , i will scram of now before im deleted , cheers

looking at ALL MODELLS ,its still saying , big pool of cold heading south or s/e . lets take away the high to our s/w ,which at the moment i think is being attacked come this weekend . beyond 144 hrs could go any way , GFS as forecast some good blocking to our east later in its runs , this could help push a good cyclonic spell south across our shores . this could be the start of something a bit more interesting , . i would say going on present mod output ,there is a very good chance of snow in favoured locations ,even at low levels before next mon /tue and keep an eye on that cold front to our south on sat , i wonder what GFS will throw up for this sat /sun on tonights run , looking foreward to tonights fax cheers gang

evening gang ,im liking tonights posts ,its nice to be back after a week of not looking at any charts or reading any weather in any paper or media . gfs seems to be out on its own but is tempting us to some possibilities in its later stages . if the ECM 120 /200 hrs comes of im sure there will be many a happy poster . met office being very carefull at the mo ,but im sure when they see anything news worthy we will know 120 /144 hrs before .most main modells do show large pressure rise in north atlantic , and some of them globally have pressure north of equater a lot lower come 20th , but as always with forecast modells ,lets not get carried away and get taken to PARADISE , but saying that im HOOKED and starved of snow so ecm ,met office ,and gfs bring it on ,gfs out soon , regards legritter

looking at all of todays charts i half expected to be where we are now . but i would not be surprised if ECM is much furmer over the following days . its deeling with a big pressure rise , whether its to the n/e or north , and dont forget any orientation that is to be forecast will come much nearer the time .also looking at GFS , i know its knocked alot but it still keeps churning out ,plenty of highs ,north and east ,.so i think 3/4 days to still be patient ,but i think the big news of tomorrow could be met update . good model watching ,im of for a break ,cheers gang

its been a painfull ride this winter ,but alas todays charts are alot firmer . this time tomorrow is critical , just need those highs same similar places or a little firmer north , im only going to keep a watchfull eye on GFS out to about 264 hrs , and ecm 216 . i know its been mentioned but IT DOES NOT TAKE MANY DAYS for deep cold to materialise . there could be a clash with air masses about 16/17th but thats a long way of ,we might have to wait till 20th , but if the highs dont become too flabby we could get a good deep easterly . its ironic im of down to hampshire next week 5 days ,no computer , so plenty of chart dreaming . weve all suffered , or most have lately so enjoy the charts , will be interesting met update monday no dought , regards legritter

just hang on in there ,ok a week of mild dross then action again . we could get some eye candy come monday ,all to play for .perhaps a very disturbed COLD ZONAL is on its way .extreme cold zonal helped to pile all that ice up at start of ice age especially on western side , if only , mega lake effect snow 10cm an hour job ,looking foreward to tonights ecm run ,

before any body chucks in the towel ,DONT , if a major change is on its way lets say for instance in 12days time we have a good high pressure belt greenland to far n/w of russia ,and low pressure takes up a position further south ,WE wont be seeing much on the models for a few more days , lets just remain calm ,gang , the charts are teasing us because its only modells working on billions of information . we dont need any ridge sticking up the aleutions thank you very much , we can still get cold with its usuall aleution low . a bit more energy north of the tropics could be a help , dont worry if this azores high hangs around any longer it will get a big crank up its rear from me . im sure us coldies will get our rewards for being patient , cheers legritter

hi ,its legritter just s/w 15miles from bristol ,wind increasing ,power keeps dipping ,im using rain today but stuck at 6 o,clock ,probably to many hits , all the best gang ,will try to give a report later ,cheers

front approaching s/w ireland ,rain across southern ireland now , i personally think all prone places could get a good hammering ,this must be a hard one for the MET ,the problem being depth of low combined with high pressure to s/west , and day time peak of gusts , also cold front being influenced by ,. post ka , .. and daytime heating .;;. hope all stay safe,regards legritter , im off to cinema

yes ,enjoy the ride .we are starting to see what most of us wanted . cold air coming into europe , the atlantic slowing down ,the models at longer range will always chop and change , just think as iv pointed out before 50 miles plus per day over next 240 hrs = 500 miles at least =,all that high pressure could finish up in the right place gang , i know there are other types of physics involved but the bottom line is the heavier the amount of molecules above a given place especially if warmed up ,the higher the pressure , im sure we have a possible strat warming event now about to show its hand . hope im right , going by my limited knowledge of strat warming , and iv read the posts from our threads ,north america , canada and astronomical sights , also quarterly journal , but its a bit thechnical ,but still informative , anyhow going by this i will stick my head out and say continental feed by 12th jan cheers

a good start to the new year for us mod watchers ,it will be interesting to see what ecm is showing at 240 hrs from about next tues onwards , i think it will be a painfull week but perhaps some rewards come the following , if this very interesting low on tues day ish does take a good track further south , it could be a very early sign of things a changing , anyhow thanks to all the gang for their brilliant contributions with charts and tech details etc , all the best for 2012 ,lets hope its a BEASTERLY

yes 30cms in 24hrs down near exeter at minus 3 with gale force winds ,feb 18th 1978 ,white hell was headlines . also march 4 th 1947 , south of bristol 40cms at minus 2 vast drifts , april 1908 a couple of exceptional deep fals especially in oxford cambridge bristol ,also low temp for late in season ,the victorian blizzards in the 1880s not sure which year , 60cms quite widely across southern britain .cheers legritter

yes certainly one to watch .will be interesting chart watchtng over next couple of days . will be interesting if this low does track further south , at least we will get plenty of warning from met office , i dont think it will finish up a channel low ,but could finish up very deep somewhere ,eng /scot borders , with a very tight pressure gradiant further south ,and some very interesting weather behind ,cold front . just a thought if it does track further south as of todays predictions ,it COULD be heralding something going on in the very complicated subject that we are all in love with . many years ago before all these modells etc and only about 144 hr charts to generally go by ,a north atlantic low in winter ,heading further south or s/e was a good sign of a possible change , i suggest any learners take notice of JOHN HOLMES ,follow movement and developement read all information put on by experienced members etc ,keep a record for future reference , and enjoy the ride ,regards legritter ps my new computer or reconditioned one was no good ,hope to sort problem soon

nearly got blown over today ,nothing major but went up garden for a little skive in our shed . when i came out there was a gust ,which nearly took the door off , we might be stuck in generally mild muck but its certainly ACTIVE .next weeks low as very good potential , but we need to wait for tomorrows runs to firm things up , then tomorrow nights fax to give us a possible track .if it does track further south it COULD be the start of something a little bit wintry , IT CAN happen like this . we dont know what the models might be showing come monday , i dont post very often in this part of the forum but i am always looking in ,so thanks to the people who post charts and data etc ,take care ,regards legritter