legritter

evening all ,looking at all the charts and looking in on all weather forums in the northern hemisphere , sorry some of , its looking like zonal for a while ,but in my opinion there is a possible change a coming about 10 days time . it could be a very slow process , there are some signs of higher pressure popping up in the poles and signs that the jet could head further south . its great having all these super computers giving us these forecast modells out to 240 hrs and 380 hrs and of course even longer , but it gives us a big problem when youre FIX DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE CHARTS . DO YOURE EYES GO STRAIGHT TO THE BOTTOM LEFT ., BLINKING AZORES HIGH SHUV OFF . or across the top , oh no ,everything is heading north , anyhow for those wanting a little fix especially neweys ,watch the charts over the next 6/7 days on how they handle next weeks low , it could be very interesting ,you could be looking at a possible major event ,or possibly not ,as iv said before ,stay tuned to NET WEATHER and learn , i think iv lurnt more the last 3 years by just clicking on net weather than my 20 yrs as a fellow , GFS starting to update in a few minutes ,just keep an eye about 240 hrs , spoke to an ex colleagueinpoland ,they are forecasting a change in 10days time ,didn,t ask to many questions as raw data comes from , different sources ,well good modell watching cheers, ps any one for a v,cold zonal , it could come just to shut some of us up .

merry christmas ,all , all the best for 20120 whoops 2012

HEAR HEAR , some good posts ,everything to play for , whats lurking around the next corner ,looking foreward to tomorrows runs perhaps a bit of firming up on the way cheers ps happy christmas ,let it snow , let it snow ,let it snow ,

we all know the high pressure to our south and s/w could be around for a long time ,BUT 10 DAYS from now it might just pack up its bags and equally disappear . the models are starting to show us possible outcomes , i cant see mild temp plaquing N/W europe for much longer ,as i said months ago , im sure this winter will be a quick change artist , just look at the potential weather over northern uk this week ,theres plenty of action taking place , so mild dross at the moment because mother nature SAYS SO ,but mother nature is full of surprises ,for you new ones , dont take to much notice of changing end charts as these are so hard even for a super computer ,but take notice of a run of consistant charts ,singing of the same hymn sheet , dont listen to anyone who tells you that the nights are getting longer and snow wont lay , have a good look at historical charts , this is a brilliant forum , gfs about to finish run soon , wonder what change there is on last 3 days of run cheers legritter .

charts looking a bit better for the future ,plenty of dream ones coming lets hope ,a big thank you to all the gang for the input ,merry christmas .ps got me new computer , game show ,,cheers

just hang on in there ,plenty of winter left ,have a good christmas everyone cheers legritter .

thanks to the replies about my remarks about missing data , i guesed that was the issue but didnt realise it was such a touchy area , i will tread a little more carefully i think , ,icall the hours between 5pm and 8pm the golden hours ,loads of info coming in ,from models and members cheers

MISSING DATA ,WHATS THIS ABOUT MISSING DATA ,tell me more .does that meen the last weeks info is wrong as well ,and next week we have a 480 DAM over southern england .and the channel freezes over .on a seriouse note some tease on jet , and a good mix on charts ,sometimes a good sign ,cheers :smilz38:

some good constructive discussion going on today .the forecasted jet to possibly move south in jan is a big help , i find it great when certain members throw in some meat on bones ,as until christmas day when i get new computer i am unable to access much info as com naff ,i will certainly be looking out for yellows above 60 north ,cheers all

EVENING ALL ,iv been asked to post in this thread ,can someone tell me the BEST place to look for past records for the lowest DAM number recorded along english channel . im doing a little research which i will post in new year . im hoping things could go our way in new year ,plenty of little things popping up on current charts , would love to see a winter on par with about half a dozen from the 1600 hundreds ,17th century .i bet there was many extreme spells not even properly documented from 1500 hundreds and iv read some old manuscrips from monks etc of people froze solid .i always think its happened before etc etc . odviousely the dam as only been known recently but knowing the possible would help

today i could have picked red roses from garden , raspberries yes raspberries , a harlem lily from next door ,nesturtion to mix with the lettuce , snails a plenty , three french hens two ,sorry getting carried away . this time last year a white out , lets hope we see some good charts coming soon , nesturtion should be nasturtion well iv had a little tipple cheers

my GUT feeling is a winter of a quick change artist . i truly think that the weather is about to go nuts ,in the northern hemisphere , not before christmas but around the new year .when i say nuts i dont mean 63 or 47 ,but a total mix of every severe wintry spell possible but in smaller doses . i get this gut feeling because iv just spent a week going through every winter since 1600 s , and theres something about the recent cool zonal we have just had and that low up the channel that tells me ,it was just a teese , and mother nature is just having a rest .i think the ECM will pick up on it first , this euro or bartlett thing could be the computers picking up on something , among those billions of bits of the puzzle ,eventually the HIGH appears in a different place ,cheers gang , ps had one centimetre of snow last week ,who would have thought that 3 weeks ago .

wind picking up in winscombe i hope thats my stocking filler aproaching bristol heading mendip way , lets hope its still active , was ill last night could not sleep ,i wonder why ,saw some big flakes about 5am ,watched precipitation break up , went over mendip motorway 9am ,winter wonderland ,enjoy the show gang ,its getting closer ,sky gone milky, plough and jupiter fading ,going back to radar ,cheers legritter

THANKS RADIATING DENDRITE . THANKSfor the info on CMC . i know the cold air is to our n/w , my grammar is sometimes poor .i was just saying that i prefer high scandi ,low channel , lets hope we can have plenty of this synoptic set up this winter . but of course with plenty of variation so that we can all see our dream frontal event . perhaps this winter we might get a good long beast from the east ,then north ,bring it on . some interesting possibilitys coming up on latest charts . cheers , i have not quoted youre post because im not sure what im doing plus computer naffed

morning gang ,computer still playing up but new one in new year hopefully . virtual memory crap . could someone please tell me what CMS ,ENS ,CHARTS ARE AND how accurate ,interesting developements to our west ,can see cloud tops now sun is higher ,.if all the elements come together thurs /fri it could be knife edge time . this is the type of low i like with colder air to our east and high pressure over scandi ,will we have melt down tonight ,cheers thanks in advance .

yes regards 87 storm ,on the afternoon they downgraded the intensity a little ,and forecast it to move further south .one of the automatic weather bouys to the west malfunctioned giving no data , the rest is history . the low exploded between london and bristol ,i lived in bristol then it was a breezy night but VERY MILD . my sis inlaw had travelled overnight from dover to bristol ,said it was scary , saw power cables arcing . im looking forward to tomorrow nights trough ,if it matures could be interesting ,friday well i think we,ll know more late tomorrow , if it developes with cyclonic winds and passes up channel could be fun , ifit dev rapidly and moves n/e across north wales watch out south coast , but of course there are several or more synoptic possibilitys ,cheers legritter

morning CRIMSON SPRITE , if you dont get the gales you might get the snow ,plenty of natures mix about this week . hope you sort youre wind thing out .just had a look at sat pic WOW , FRIDAYS LOW IN MY OPPINION COULD GO 150/200 MILES OUT ON CURRENT PREDICTIONS ,OF CHRISTMAS SHOPPING NOW WILL CATDH UP TONIGHT ,A BIT OF RADAR WATCHING ,REGARDS LEGRITTER

well it was worth it staying up for the 120 fax .tomorrows ecm run im sure will once again show a dartboard low for wed , i think a little south though . a trying time for mod watching and a real challenge for the met .a few big question marks for 17/18th .will we see low pressure to our north east being forced south ,is something a stiring .

popped into weston today ,called into shop for bread .sold out ,people have been buying extra because of storms ,reminds me of winter 1981/82 my sister inlaws shop was stripped bair .anyhow , mon night /tues looks game on for our area ,but will be fine tuned tomorrow by met office . as for friday it could go severall ways but latest charts are still on track ,if food runs out i will be going down thatchers cider over the fence job , a nice little line of showers just to our w/sw ,cheers if it turns wintry over the MENDIPS i will be up there, willgo to see moth inlaw on mendip motorway ,instead of chew way ,bring it on ,

met office just updated warnings about 12.35 . loads of horror stories appearing on internet ,lets hope its an interesting week , but everyone stays safe cheers ,legritter

i to find the word MILD absolutely disgusting ,are the powers to be near burmuda sending us an early christmas present . i for one will be monitoring this weeks events , im sure it will be a great week for learning the charts and comparing weather forecasts and media coverage .most mod in agreement but jury still out on core of worst winds ,tonights ecm will be interestig and lets hope tonights fax follows .cheers

where ever these storms hit will be seriouse , so IF the storm centre takes the current forecast as of 1800 hrs today expect winds of atleast 60 miles an hour inland ,the end of the week ,probably now late thurs /friday is another problem we will have to wait till atleast late mon /tues for any half possible prediction coming off . and next weekend could throw up some sudden surprises . almost anywhere ,in reply to WIMBLETTBEN ,LOOKING AT ALL THE CHARTS AND READING BETWEEN THE LINES I PERSONALLY THINK PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DIRE SOMEWHERE ,HOPE ALL KEEP SAFE .

as TIMMY TOUR as pointed out ,are the models about to show something to our east developing .or up over finland etc ,this area as been lacking in past winters ,it used to be a much regular occurance .what ever happens, the next 7/8 days look very potent ,plenty of planning taking place right now in gov dept etc ,had 2nd frost this morning .i expect this forum will be in meltdown next week so i will keep my posts more near ON topic and remember to change caps lock ,cheers Legritter

only a quicky , i was invited to the weather centre in 1978 ,feb ,and that week was interesting because i spent 4 days working with the forecasters ,only days before the west country and s/w was hit by a memorable blizzard , they changed their forecast several times but came up trumps in the end . the front was slow and complex ,bristol had a good fall but down to devon and dorset a white hell . the front came to a grinding halt and swindon and glos city virtually zilch ,of course 47 and 63 history ,.back in the early 1800 hun dreds 3 very large falls over 35cms in one winter ,and 1600 s a monks diary quoted snow over3 foot deep many people perrished. 1981 1982 winter bleak on the mendips ,jan like hell . 1939 1940 jan very bleak ,latest charts look good for some arctic air inbetween next weeks deep lows , we COULD get lucky ,stay tuned ,cheers gang

we talked recently about compairing past weather events and weather charts well here is a thought . jan 6th 1839 IRELAND , after a fall of snow the wind drops completely ,but little did people in ireland know what was lurking out in the atlantic , a mighty GFS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM . ONE OF THE DEEPEST EVER RECORDED /AS OF 2007 /THE WORST STORM FOR 500 YRS IS ABOUT TO HIT .300 KILLED BUT LUCKILLY IT HIT AT NIGHT .WINDS 150MILES ,TOMBstones ripped out the ground and found a mile away .thousands of people lose their savings because they have hidden them in the thatched roofs ,i will stop now as i will do a blog next year ,models still looking good ,tonights 120fax should be interesting at least its our last glimpse of what could be before most of us hit the pillow ,went over the mendips this morning had a couple of wet flakes , probably sleet ,cheers