legritter

dont get down over any weather forecast for 20/30 days away , if what ever models they are using are 20miles a day out thats 400 miles just for starters 600 miles for a month . move yesterdays synoptics around by this amount and look at the difference . i have a feeling that a blosk will set up ,block ,sorry in middle of listening to snooker behind me . back to block ,where it sets up will be important just basing my feeling on what i said a couple of weeks ago i think this winter will be full of surprises A QUICK CHANGE ARTIST IS THE WEATHER SOMETIMES , tues/sat next week looking very interesting ,model watching will be fun ,after that euro high drama ,anything is possible ,we are nearly there , lets hope we all get our dream charts at some stage ,regards

hi gang ,regards pattern matching ,in regards historical weather logs etc ,.i have spent many a day looking at old logs and sometimes they throw up similar patterns but of course the atmosphere is made up of so many different atmospheric layers and the weather set up either side of these patterns is so complex and unless you have a total northern hemisphere archive going back a long time ,it is in my opinion going to be hard to find one . but it can give you an idea of what can develope but not which way that developement will travell , tonights charts are showing some juicy possible outcomes for next 10 days .if we can get that jet just a touch further south and pressure falling azores etc many more doors will open . just been out for my fag and we have a weak 22 deg lunar halo but tonight jupiter is just outside of the ring . looking foreward to tomorrows charts ,what will be in store . reg ,legritter .

rain heavy here in n somerset , expecting back end of front about 6ish ,good picture of wind tur at scottish wind farm on fire ,dont think breaks worked right ,picture on bbc news on internet ,cheers

very interesting results ,and a few surprises ,cheers legritter

as some members have said about next weeks potential , which ever track they take it just goes to show that 2 wks ago we were all , or a big percentage , fearing the euro high ,long may it enjoy its rest .lets hope it sends its high pressure relatives out of RETIREMENT to grace our weather charts ,any thoughts of where it could set up residence . finland 1042 ish mb with a ridge to iceland , still with an active atlantic though ,if only ,some good active posts around makes good reading and learning regards

morning all but it could be afternoon by the time i post ,WHOOPS SORRY I HAD CAPS LOCK , no i didnt . anyhow some seriouse weather around , will be radar watching next 48 hrs or so just hoping for some feature to pop up and cross our area , but as im aware its a large area so some happy folfs ,and some not so lucky ,lets hope atlantic lows can dig deeper south over next 10 days or so .on about cider apples, i think were picked i mean collected later this year absolutely tons went pass my house during oct /nov .local gritters are in yard and more salt etc arrived yesterday ,cheers

ECM certainly not implausible as mr data stated .could very well be showing us something that could develope in a shorter time ie ,7/8 days .if youre fix is mega lows and youre hoping to see a big one ,you will certainly be on a high today ,but i hope you dont come crashing down along with all those trees today . i still think many in the west and even centrall areas could see some white stuff in next 48hrs or so as todays storm was born ,developed from some pretty potent elements , theres also the possibillity that ecm as caught gfs habit of dartboards ,but often i think in our hobby ,theres NO SMOKE WITHOUT FIRE , but this statement in life you could say Who started the fire .hopefully a new computer after christmas ,mine is rubbish ,i hope to do some blogs iv nearly 400 society magazines and doz of journals , anyone in storm zone stay safe ,re ,legritter

well thurs /fri storm is nailed ,all stay safe . i,v had a look at charts and late thurs friday could see some fun further south with cold front .im also half expecting something interesting ,if projected 850., temp , and other synoptics come off .if precipitation gets going for what ever reason , i think with just a little elevation perhaps 100 mtrs and a bit inland from coasts wet snow in any heavier bursts . next weeks low im sure will take a more southerly flow , after that ,past wed im expecting absolutely anything to happen ,we will have to keep an eye on heights further east , and the dreaded azores high .what ever happens atleast we have the tools these days with computers and weather models and knowledge able forum members . anyone interested there is a halo lunar ,very weak forming ,22deg ,with jupiter inside ring , anyone with strong binoculars can see one of its moons . also a very high altitude jet as recently gone across area of ring ,no contrail ,but it could just be engines off . i know off topic but could be of interest to some ,cheers legritter

JUST WAITING FOR LATEST FAX ,BUT OF COURSE ANY SMALL DETAIL WILL COME LATER . WILL BE ALSO LOOKING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR HOPEFULLY SOME SORT OF PRESSURE RISE TO OUR FAR N/E VERY FAR ,WE NEED THESE LOWS TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH , BUT I AM CERTAINLY HAPPY WITH THINGS AT THE MOMENT , PLENTY OF ACTION TAKING PLACE TOMORROW DOWN AT EXETER I WOULD IMAGINE , ALREADY READ SOME INTERESTING NEWS SNIPPETS FROM UP NORTH ,BUT MUST BE CAREFULL AS NEWS IS SOMETIMES EXAGGERATED ,AS WE KNOW .BRING ON THE UPGRADES ,CHEERS LEGRITTER .

as john holmes just said RE high tides ,i think there is a full moon due about thursdayish ,would love to be a fly on the wall down at exeter , and cant imagine but i would think that a lot of emergency planning would be taking place soon IF THINGS UPGRADE QUICKLY ,I HOPE YOU DONT THINK IM SCAREMONGERING , BUT I THINK THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY . TONIGHTS FAX CHARTS COULD BE VERY INTERESTING ,ALSO UPPER AIR TEMPERATURES ,REGARDS

charts showing some interesting stuff for up north ,i am hoping us down in the south can tap into some of the cold air over the weekend .if this incoming low takes a track a little further south it will have the potential for a similar event that took place back in the 90s i think ,called the burns day storm which inflicted carnage across southern england , .but with the severe stuff this time much further north .this evenings updates could be very interesting .even if everything stays zonal for the next week it should make for an interestig forum .regards

evening , a message for the new ones or learners . dont get down if what you see is not what you want ,. iv had 50 odd years obsessed with the weather , being told when a small boy to get back in bed by my mother in the middle of the night when i used to open the window for lamp post watching etc . listening to the shipping forecast aged 10 . having weather charts delivered by post when in my late 20s ,5 day outlooks ,by the time i got them they were out of date ,all changed . this computer lark is out of this world but addictive . iwas totally stressed 24 hrs ago so i stayed of computer, looked on site late tonight and now i feel good .atleast this weekend could be full of surprises ,with different air masses about ,and next week could go severall ways ,i find it helpfull sometimes to go onto some of the webcams in north america or canada ,winnipeg as got some good ones, watch their weather it soothes you .,then come back on NET WEATHER when youre relaxed a bit , i just feel that we need pressure to fall about 10mbs over the south of us ,.as an ex fellow of the royal meteorological society i have met many a knowledgable e ..professor and research scientists and they all say well most , dont put much trust beyond 120 144 hrs unless its a massive agreement , i must admit things have moved on over the last 10 20yrs . always remember someone is wishing in scotland for their fix ,and someone in cornwall is wishing . so you will need to read between the lines ,the white stuff can come at fairly short notice ,if a good mix is around , any how my wife as just said on the weather again no wonder you cant sleep ,cheers legritter ,.

even all ,i said i would post a seriouse post ,but my computer is up the creek again . i honestly think that by this time next week we will have a seriouse high around but where it sits and which way it orientates wont become clear until the human produced chart next thurs is produced , and at the same time as some interesting synoptics take place either over us or near us , .we could be better off this winter having a PV about the half way house ,perhaps that could give some of us normal frontal events spread over the winter ,not squeezed into 3/4 weeks . i think at the moment im going with the met . i will try and post that other post again if i find it , cheers legritter

just been out side for a puff , certainly nippy ,more exciting than that euro damp grey stuff ,at least things on the weather outllook ,look good for us coldies . some good looking shower potential about . and later this week ,sat/sun could be interesting . perhaps the advance guard of winter as arrived ,cheers

morn all ,itried posting earlier but cocked it all up , dont know where i sent post , anyhow i like thursdays fax , a bit of meat on the bone .you never know what a cold front can throw up .i know the state of the stratosphere is a player in polar physics etc ,but im sure in years to come if money is invested in this field we will find some interesting discoveries . looking at the models at the moment is a bit of a rollercoaster , but the end is always changing . yes we have had some good shots over the last 3 winters , but in my opinion we need some damn good luck with getting high pressure north scandy finland way , also ,something to change down the azores ,regards for now .

evening all ,could someone tell me if the ECM mid day friday is out yet ,not sure where to find it ,wont be able to sleep otherwise ,thanks . not in usual place .

just spent a while on charts ,i dont usually put my kneck on the line but i think the 144 168 timeframe could be one to watch .im pretty confident that some cold shot is on its way .its been teasing for a while . whilst the stratosphere is a key ,other keys can open the door ,just my outlook , just need pressure too fall by about 10 mb to our far sw ,in the outlook ,cheers

its good to see some good charts tonight , our local gritting yard as been recieving more supplies , im just waiting for latest fax , and hoping that dam line keeps south 528 that is , i wonder if CORBYN is lurking about ,looking good for those web cams in winnipeg next week , if they dont crack with the cold , regards legritter

yes certainly some good charts about ,i will put my hands up and say that i thought sun chart would be similar to what gfs was showing yesterday , a more developed low tracking across us , lets hope we keep getting some upgrades on our side . and keep that 528 dam as far south as possible .i think thurs 120 fax chart could be very interesting ,sea temp nice and warm at present ,and a nice cold feed . virtually anything could happen next week ,but we all know that mother nature can take our dreams away , heres hoping ,regards.

regards ,sun mon event ,as i said the other day ,SOMEWHERE IN NW EUROPE IS IN FOR A PASTING ,GO CAREFULL WHAT YOU WISH FOR .the forecasters will keep this one close to their desk ,untill i think much closer the time . the low could very easily develope further south and take its time developing ,so we miss the worse ,or the opposit e could happen . thurs night charts could be interesting ,regards

YES SOME JUICY DAYS COMING UP , PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ,COULD BE AN INTERSTING MODELL FORUM THIS WEEKEND . THURS NIGHTS FAX SHOULD BE INTERESTING ,

im pretty sure that there was a period of 2 weeks or so of very potent nw/northerly winds in jan 1906 or 1908 a paper was written on this event in weather magazine of roy met soc . i will try and find it , they fill up 3 bxs in our attick .but the article could have been in one of many old log and diarys i bought . i can remember the author stating that because these events were before satellites many of them could have been polar lows ,. sudden violent snow storms affected many parts especially west and central ,parts of n ireland as well .also mentioned the great mix of snowflake sizes and wind circulation ,if i find this information i will post ,WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST PLACE TO POST , WITH THANKS LEGRITTER .

evening all ,looking foreward to tonights fax update , i find these charts are so much more interesting , but i think this sun /mon synoptics wont be clear until late thurs . the advance guard of winter as arrived in somerset , just feel that fresher north atlantic air . what a great leap foreward compared to 7/10days ago ,

there is even a possibillity that the low rapidly deepens earlier and moves across our south , watch out FRANCE , or it might just be an over cooked burnt low GFS style , but as others have pointed out SOMEWHERE WILL GET IT , ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON . I PERSONALLY THINK THE COMPUTER IS LATCHING ON TO A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT .,BUT STAY IN TUNE , IT COULD LOSE IT TOMORROW ,AND BRING IT BACK WEDNESDAY ,PERHAPS A LADY WILL RING THE BEEB TOMORROW , IV MET MICHAEL FISH AND HES A GREAT BLOKE ,SO JUST IN CASE ANYONE SAYS IT, NO IM NOT TAKING THE p...regards legritter

iv just posted and cant believe the other posts that came up , at least its not just me fearing the worst ,it takes me ages to post, old computer and one letter one finger ,cheers