Summer Sun

Forgot yesterday's update so here it is Often dry Chilly wind at times Some rain in north, wintry over highest ground http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131125

Latest from Gibby on the 00z models All models point to a rather cloudy and less chilly spell of weather developing over the UK from later today until Friday with a lot of cloud and hill fog and drizzle all in association with very High pressure near to the SW of Britain and moist air rounding the Northern flank of the High and down across the UK. On Friday a cold front moves SE across the UK bringing clearer and much drier air with a drop in temperature. Winds will become fresh and cold from the North or NW for a time with wintry showers possible in the North and East on Saturday before milder air begins to topple back down over the UK on Sunday following a frost, all this as High pressure is very dominant to the SW. GFS then shows a couple of dry and quiet days across the South to start next week before cloudy and breezy weather moves down from the NW in association with a cold front with another band of lightening rain as it moves across Southern England. Things then turn much more unsettled, colder and windy across the UK albeit briefly with spells of rain with hill snow and strong winds, moving down from the North. This is then quickly replaced by High pressure once more toppling down from the NW to settle things down into a cold and frosty period before things turn rather mild again, especially in the North and West as a SW flow takes hold. UKMO today closes it's run next Monday with High pressure still positioned SW of Ireland with little change in conditions from those we have currently with a mix of cloud and clear spells but mostly dry weather allowing patchy frost and fog by night but daytime temperatures held at reasonable levels due to a maritime NW flow. GEM today shows High pressure still dominant either to the South or SW during the early and middle part of next week although the far North will have a wet and windy period. This then extends further South and East to all areas by next weekend. NAVGEM keeps benign and relatively mild conditions well into the middle of next week with High pressure close to Southern Britain and a moist Westerly flow over the North. Frost and fog though possible would be uncommon as cloud cover will be quite extensive. ECM this morning shows very slow changes to the anticyclonic pattern early next week, taking until the end of the week to turn things much more unsettled briefly with rain, strong winds then wintry showers. It does look though this will also be very temporary as a ridge to the West has nothing to support it and would likely topple back across the UK at the following weekend. The GFS Ensembles show no really cold spell on offer this morning. There is a period when most members offer some rather cold weather for a time next week with no doubt a few wintry surprises for a few but it has good support not to last as the milder Atlantic air is shown to retrieve ground by the end of the output. There will be little rain for Southern Britain until well into next week. The Jet Stream remains orientated badly for UK cold as it remains well to the north of the UK for some while yet before an injection and change to a WNW to ESE flow across Britain looks possible late next week before it rises back to Iceland late in the run. In Summary today there is still little to cheer for those looking for deep cold and snow across the UK as High pressure remains stubbornly anchored close to South or SW Britain for another week warding off any major attempt of colder zonal conditions to move down from the North. There is a more marked attack of unsettled and windy conditions later next week when temperatures become rather chilly and no doubt some will see some wintriness for a time in among the wind and rain but the pattern is far from conducive to bring any one place anything more than a day or two of transient cold before milder air in association with Atlantic High pressure migrating back to the SW cuts off any supply with no Northern blocking or correct Jet Stream orientation to support anything different. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Latest from Gibby on the 12z models All models tonight show High pressure still in control of our weather as it centre currently over NW Britain slipping further South and flattening out to allow a milder flow of winds from the North Atlantic to move down across the UK midweek. Then late in the week a cold front crosses all areas from the NW with a spell of rain, weakening as it moves SE across the UK to be followed by colder and breezier weather for the weekend with some wintry showers possible in the North and East and some frosts for all. GFS then shows things turning milder soon into the new week with Westerly winds bringing cloudier skies once more. Through the middle and end of the week conditions deteriorate from the North as High pressure to the South finally dissolves away South. Things turn colder with some wintry showers for a time with some sharp frosts then as a transient ridge crosses West to East. The run ends with cloud and rain extending NE across the UK with milder air returning East over the South and west at least. UKMO shows a very uninspiring chart for weather watchers in general as the large High to the SW is positioned such that a rather cloudy NW flow brings benign conditions with temperatures recovering to average again by Sunday. GEM shows a steady deterioration in conditions next week as Low pressure gradually gains a stranglehold on conditions over the UK, moving down from the North. The end of the run for next Thursday shows strong to gale force WNW winds and heavy and frequent showers with hail, thunder and sleet and snow over Northern hills. NAVGEM shows a mild WSW flow over the UK early next week as High pressure maintains it's position over France bringing mild and moist conditions with a lot of cloud across the UK. ECM tonight shows a dry start to next week with fine and bright weather in the South while the North clouds over with a trough moving SE across the British Isles bringing a little rain which in turn is followed by a dip into much more unsettled weather with rain and strong SW winds sweeping East across Britain followed by sunshine and squally showers, wintry on hills by the second half of next week. The GFS Ensembles show a tale of two halves tonight with Week 1 generally unexciting with High pressure cloudy based weather with average temperatures while Week 2 shows a strong trend now for the weather to turn colder and unsettled with rain at times with snow over the hills as a period of cold zonality looks likely to develop. The Jet Stream shows the flow to the North of the UK with a plunge South of the flow over Britain on the weekend before a return to where we are now. Then later in the run it looks like the flow will trend towards a NW to SE axis across the UK as the weather turns more unsettled and chillier. In Summary the weather still shows only slow changes over the coming week or so as the Azores High pressure remains displaced further NE close to SW Britain delivering an extended spell of dry and rather cloudy weather with a few brighter interludes with patchy frost and fog if these breaks occur overnight. A brief colder interlude is likely at the weekend with a few wintry showers in the North and East before milder weather returns once more. However, next week sees a steady change to more unsettled and windy weather moving down from the North and NW and while some models tend to exaggerate the severity of such changes a trend is well set that by the middle and end of next week a pattern change is most likely to have occurred and whilst it may not be a change to raging cold and blizzards a more unsettled and volatile pattern will offer something other than Anticyclone Gloom to talk about. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Exactly 3 weeks now till the sun will be setting at its earliest, its flown by this year since the clocks went back an hour and now were 21 days away from the sun setting at its earliest then we start the process of gaining extra daylight Of course the mornings will still be seeing the sun rise later for another few weeks after this

A more unsettled end to ECM tonight

Latest 8 day temperature outlook from GFS shows the north of the country seeing temperatures slightly above average, the far south west also recovers Temperature anomaly Expected temperatures

All models are in agreement now North westerly on Friday before the high edges east again over the weekend as Autumn ends and winter begins December 3rd shows the next potential north westerly

Quite a big difference between UKMO and GFS for the 850's at t120 GFS UKMO

UKMO delivers a north westerly at t96 before the high edges east again

UKMO between t06 to t36 is updating once more after 11 days of data problems

This afternoons GFS run shows potential for coldies December 3rd onwards this looks to be when a change could happen

Many more runs of course needed to bring it into a reliable time-frame but some interesting developments in FI for coldies

Looking at the ensembles its December 3rd onwards which has all options open

45mm for the month which is well below the 81 to 10 average of 60mm, very little rain forecast for the rest of the month so we could potentially be under 50mm for the month Rainfall for the year is currently 534mm which is slightly above the 81 to 10 average of 526mm till the end of November Another 40mm needs to fall over by December 31st before we hit average

Or they could be directed here if anyone accuses me of only posting mild related stuff Current indications for the NAO suggest it will stay natural or slightly above till around mid December

Current signals for the NAO suggest it will stay positive till mid December The met office favour a negative NAO this winter so thats something to keep an eye on

Thanksgiving travel could be disrupted as a deadly winter storm heads south and east, bringing rain, sleet and snow during one of the busiest holiday seasons. Forecasters said they expected the difficult conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday as millions of people hit the roads and airports. Flight could be delayed and roads could be icy, they said. The Arctic mass, which started in the West, is making its way through Oklahoma, Texas and other parts of central and southwest America. Meteorologist Tom Bradshaw said: "It's certainly going to be a travel impact as we see the first few people making their way for Thanksgiving." The Thanksgiving holiday weekend is one of the most heavily travelled in the US, with some 39 million people expected to hit the roads from Wednesday to Sunday. The storm has been blamed for at least eight deaths in several fatal traffic accidents. It also caused hundreds of rollover accidents, including one that injured three members of singer Willie Nelson's band when their bus hit a pillar on a highway northeast of Dallas. The National Weather Service has issued winter weather advisories for parts of Texas and Oklahoma, New Mexico and northern Arkansas as snow and freezing rain was expected to accumulate throughout the region. http://news.sky.com/story/1173386/thanksgiving-storm-threatens-travel-plans

Speaking of America a deadly storm is sweeping across the USA bringing heavy rain, flooding, icy roads and snow just in the run up to Thanksgiving on Thursday http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25079147

November updated Issued December to February Summary Temperature Indications are that December will most likely be colder than average. For December-January-February as a whole uncertainty is quite large but below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average. Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest category is between 20 and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest category is between 10 and 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). The most useful indicator of synoptic type during the winter months is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which in its positive mode results in stormy winters across the UK with generally milder-than-normal temperatures. A negative NAO is mostly associated with fewer storms than normal, a pre-dominance of high pressure and generally lower-than-normal temperatures as outgoing long-wave radiation overnight is greater than normal. There are currently no significant sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific and therefore neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail. Computer models favour a continuation of near-neutral conditions in the coming months. In the northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures are mostly above average, whilst further south they are a little below average. The influence of these forcing factors is to weaken the strength of jetstreams in the Atlantic, creating a less conducive environment for storms and more dominant high pressure systems over the UK, that is, negative NAO conditions. However, this year this influence is expected to be weak. Arctic sea ice has started to increase in area now, but is still below the climatological average for the time of year, especially in the Kara Sea. Indications are that this might support the negative NAO conditions described in the paragraph above, although as yet the predictive association is not fully demonstrated. The winds in the equatorial stratosphere are currently strong and westerly, indicating the westerly phase of the Quasi –Biennial Oscillation; this phase typically favours the positive phase of the NAO in winter. This influence is currently only weakly represented in most forecast models. On balance a greater proportion of the drivers that affect UK weather are suggesting a negative NAO winter; indeed, computer models favour higher pressure than normal across the country and blocked atmospheric circulation over the normal eastward moving Atlantic storms. This is reflected in the temperature forecast for December-January-February, with rather colder-than-average outcomes slightly enhanced relative to climatology – as can be seen in figure T2. Temperature Summary Summary precipitation Confidence in the forecast for precipitation across the UK over the next three months is relatively low. There is a preference for below-average precipitation during December. For the December-January-February period as a whole there is a slight signal for below-average precipitation. The probability that UK precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). As discussed in the temperature section, forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK. As in all seasons, this pre-dominance of anticyclones is likely to lead to drier-than-normal conditions across the country, as can be seen in figure P2 where the forecast shows a shift towards below-average values. The weakening of the prevailing westerly flow means that the normally wetter western or northwestern parts of the country may see a significant reduction in precipitation compared to average, while the east or southeast may be closer to average. However uncertainty in this regional pattern of precipitation is large. With colder-than-normal conditions being favoured, as indicated in the temperature section, the probabilities for precipitation falling as snow and for occurrence of ice this winter will be higher than the climatological values. Precipitation Summary

The latest met office contingency planners forecast favours a colder than average December along with January and February Forecast models favour a negative NAO pattern this winter, with high pressure areas more likely to be centred over or close to the UK

Heavy snow and rainContinued wintry across EuropeIssued: 0530hrs Monday 25 November 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Dry, cold across Spain Today Cold across much of Europe. An area of heavy snow is forecast from northern Russia across Belarus into southern Poland, Hungary and into the western Ukraine and Romania. Heavy rain is likely across southern Russia into the eastern Ukraine and western Turkey. Dry and fine across eastern Turkey. Cold but expect a dry day across The Adriatic Region with a few heavy showers across Greece. Cold across Italy with some sleet and rain with showers around Sardinia and the Balearics. Still cold but dry and sunny for Portugal and Spain and into France. A few showers to come across The Low Countries but a sunny, dry day across Denmark, southern Norway, Sweden and Finland. Snow showers are expected in the far north of Poland and around the coasts of the Baltic States. The mistral persists across southern France and it stays windy across Portugal and eastern Europe making it feel cold. Tuesday It continues cold across Europe today with an area of snow expected across central Russia into Belarus southern Poland and southern Germany. Snow is also forecast across Croatia, Serbia and northern Italy with rain and snow across Bulgaria. Heavy rain across Turkey today with heavy showers across Greece and southern Italy. A number showers will also be found in the western Mediterranean with a cold, dry and sunny day again across Spain and Portugal. Mostly fair and dry into France. Dry as well across the Low Countries and Denmark with coastal showers. Apart from snow showers for north west Norway expect another cold but dry day across Norway, Sweden and Finland. Very windy across eastern parts of Iberia, the Straits of Gibraltar, southern France and Italy. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131125

Here's the latest on the 00z models from Gibby All models currently show High pressure across NW Britain with light and slack winds across the UK. Trapped under this High pressure as expected large amounts of cloud has formed and spread out to give many areas rather cloudy weather which looks like lasting through much of this working week. However, as always some breaks will appear in the cloud and allow frost and fog to form overnight which will continue to occur over the coming nights too. Through the middle of the week Northern areas will become milder for a time before a cold front moving SE at the end of the week starts the weekend off with a chilly NW wind and some bright spells and the odd shower following a band of rain SE on the front through Friday. GFS then shows High pressure reasserting it's influence across Southern Britain at least for a time early next week with bright and dry conditions while the North quickly become more changeable again with Westerly winds and some rain. This changeable theme then spreads further South and East later next week with a marked wind increase by the second weekend as an unusually deep depression lies to the North, giving severe gales, heavy rain followed by wintry showers to all areas to close the run. UKMO shows a cold and breezy start to next weekend with wintry showers possible in the East and frost at night. Conditions then moderate through Sunday as a ridge builds from our Atlantic High while the North sees milder Westerly winds returning on Sunday. GEM today also shows a NW flow to start the weekend, rather cold with some showers for a time, wintry on hills. As we move into next week it's trend is for more unsettled weather to extend to all areas by the middle of the week with wind and rain for all as the High finally collapses and dissolves to the SW. NAVGEM keeps High pressure across the South to start next week with a milder Atlantic Westerly flow developing across the North. The South would likely see frost and fog patches night and morning while the North is less cold and rather cloudy but mostly dry. ECM also shows High pressure across the South to start next week although it pulls slowly South and weakens as more instability in the atmosphere pushes down from the North by midweek with the threat of rain increasing for all, first in the North. Temperatures would be close to average through the period. The GFS Ensembles show a slightly colder domination this morning as the benign conditions of this week slowly give way to more unsettled weather with rain at times and temperatures likely to be close to or rather below normal later in the run which would allow for some snowfall to occur on Northern hills at times. The Jet Stream driving the weather at the moment is well to the North of the UK and remains there for some time to come. There is signs then of a tilt in the flow to run it SE across the UK at least for a time as pressure falls to the North next week. In Summary the weather this week will see only slow changes and variations day to day. Anticyclonic gloom will be prevalent but some clearer slots could give rise to frost and freezing fog patches at times before midweek. Then later it looks like most models support an injection of colder clearer air from the NW at the weekend. In Week 2 the trend seems to be for things to slowly turn more unsettled and windy with rain at times as our High finally becomes slowly eroded from the North. Though no prospect of marked cold is shown again this morning some change of air mass to Polar maritime later could bring some wintriness to showers over higher ground especially in the North. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Here is the Latest from Gibby on the 12z models The UK has High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic with a slack Northerly flow over the UK bringing a mix of sunshine and cloud with frost and fog patches at night or cloudy, benign conditions with very little rain. Through the week the weather will become somewhat milder for a time as the High to the West flattens and moves gently South with a milder feed rounding the Northerly periphery of the High and down across Britain. By the end of the week a trough slips SE over the UK, most likely on Friday with a weakening band of rain moving down across all areas with colder and brighter weather following with wintry showers in the NW to start next weekend. GFS then shows milder air quickly returning next weekend and the start of the new week as SW winds round a declining High pressure with a front moving SE once more early in the week with some further rainfall but very little in the South. Again this is followed by a return to colder and dry weather as an intense High pressure area comes down across the UK to be replaced by an Atlantic ridge opens the door to a Northerly flow with snow showers especially in the North and East and frosts by night. UKMO closes it's run with High pressure out to the WSW with milder air again rounding the High replacing the day or two of colder weather which will occur early next weekend. GEM tonight shows High pressure declining SE with some very mild Southerly air moving up across Britain supported by Low pressure having formed to the SW. The weather would remain largely dry with just light drizzle and mist near Southern and Western coasts and hills. NAVGEM shows High pressure next weekend relaxing South with milder air rounding the High across the North and later areas further South. ECM follows a GEM route of High pressure declining away SE over Europe with a very mild Southerly flow sucked up over the UK with largely dry conditions before a complex frontal system moves erratically ESE across the UK by midweek or soon after. The GFS Ensembles show that from the mid run period things diversify between members in a huge spread North and South of the UK. The weather slowly becomes more unsettled too with some rain likely for all in the second week. The Jet Stream shows that the flow is maintained to the North of the UK for some time to come turning South down the North Sea later in the week. Then in Week 2 there is some indication that the Northern arm weakens and resets over the Atlantic towards the UK. In Summary the weather remains in very static mode for the first week with quiet benign conditions and only patchy frost and overnight fog as cloud remains stubbornly persistent for many. In Week 2 things become rather more difficult to call as there is some sign of our High declining with more unsettled weather with some rain at times. despite a few options of a colder Northerly flow is shown from GFS right at the end of it's run there is little support for anything particularly wintry likely within the next two weeks as things stand currently. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Looking at the ensembles December 3rd onwards has a lot of scatter on show so its still anyone's guess as to which way it will go All options remain open

t240 shows cold air approaching but until then its not all that cold, infact before it gets colder we'll have to potentially get through something milder, how mild it gets at the surface though is anyone's guess at this stage t240 is loaded with potential for cold weather