Summer Sun

The final run of ECM Op looks a wee bit cold Ensemble for the same time Anomaly

6.5c to the 26th -0.3c below the 61-90 average

As expected today is a mild day overnight was quite mild as well never dropped below 8c here We are in double figures already at 10:02 currently 10.2c and rising

Gales in ScandinaviaRain and showers in the MediterraneanIssued: 0530hrs Wednesday 27th November 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Cold conditions in central Europe, cool weather in the south also Wednesday Portugal and Spain will have another decent day on Wednesday with bright sunny spells. Some showers remain along the southern Costas. Further spells of heavy rain in the western Mediterranean may affect the Balearics and also southern France with some snow over higher ground too. Northern Italy looks mostly dry, but still with some showery rain and hill snow along eastern coast of the peninsula. Some patchy rain and showers may continue to affect Turkey but becoming drier. Greece will see dry and bright spells too. Still some snow in parts of Romania and Bulgaria. Some patchy rain and drizzle in northern France but drier and brighter for central France. Dry but quite chilly weather affect Germany, Switzerland and Austria. The Low Countries will see more cloud and some light rain. Remaining windy in Scandinavia with outbreaks of rain around the Baltic. Frequent wintry showers continue in western Norway with gales possible. Thursday Fine and dry in Portugal, northern and central Spain on Thursday. Showers affect southern Spain, with some snow over the highest ground. Spells of rain affect the Balearics and also Sardinia. A few showers in eastern Italy again. Scattered showers and sunny spells in Greece and Turkey although feeling cool here. Dry and bright weather affect southern France, much of Switzerland and Austria, and into Hungary and the Ukraine too, although quite cold. Patchy rain and drizzle affect Belgium and southern Germany and the Czech Republic. Brighter skies but strong winds affect northern Germany and Denmark, with a few blustery showers possible in Poland and the Baltic States. Windy with gales for much of Scandinavia, feeling very cold in the wind with wintry showers in the north-west of Norway and Finland. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131127

Murky at times Colder later Colder later in the week with cloud and murk http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131127

5 days now since the Express had a weather story they've gone quiet all of a sudden

Looks like a 4 day or so cold snap before a return to average or even above average temps according to Ian Fergusson on twitter A short colder phase likely between 8-12 days time but likely followed by a return to average or even above average temps (contra D Express) Latest from Gibby on the 00z models All models show a period of very slow changes in the weather over the UK for the next week or so. High pressure remains stubbornly close to SW England and the weather shows a milder and moister West flow across the UK now with widepread anticyclonic gloom and hill mist and drizzle at times. This weather will likely persist for the next 36 hours or so before brighter and fresher conditions chase the low cloud and murk away on Friday with sunshine and scattered showers wintry on hills in the North briefly. By the second half of the weekend the weather retrns milder and cloudy again as milder and moist air again rounds the Northern periphery of the High still close to the SW and down over the UK. The start of next week looks relatively mild and benign as the High finally starts to relax away SE while maintaining a UK ridge which maintains dry and quiet weather for most. GFS then shows temporary injections of more unsettled weather starting midweek next week firstly over the North, extending to the South too at times. However, any one weather type remains short-lived as milder air quickly replaces any colder weather and there will be rain at times in the second half of the run although amounts in the South look small on this operational run as High pressure remains fairly close towards the SW or South for much of the time. UKMO shows High pressure over the mid Alantic with a ridge all the way across the UK to Germany next Tuesday. The quiet and benign weather will still be well established next Tuesday with only a slight increase in the Westerly breeze across the North with perhaps a little light rain in the far North and NW. Temperatures would be relatively mild under relatively cloudy skies. GEM today holds quiet and benign conditions right out to the end of next week now as High pressure clings on and only briefly looks like giving way at the very end of next week to a spell of rather colder and blustery NW winds with rain at times and some snow showers for a time on Northern and Eastern high ground before the likelihood of mild and damp weather returns to all over next weekend. NAVGEM closes it's run with a slow deterioration in conditions through the middle of next week as weakening troughs move SE down over Britain with a little rain with the prospect of a phase of more active fronts and wind later in the week but never looking overly cold at any point. ECM this morning shows fine weather still at the midweek point as High pressure clings on over Britain before a pulse of energy pushes a band of rain and colder weather SE over all areas late in the week before conditions gradually turn less cold but still unsettled in the North in time for the weekend while the South would probably become dry and rather cloudy again and less cold to end the run as High pressure is close by to the South. The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing threateningly cold and wintry over the next few weeks. True, there is a period when below average uppers look likely later next week but coming from the NW things could well become modified at the surface by the North Atlantic when crossing the UK to give no more than the threat of wintry showers for a time over Northern hills. There is then strong support for even this pattern to flatten out later as Westerly winds look favoured to take hold with rain at times, chiefly in the North and temperatures well up to average. The Jet Stream flow remains stubbornly positioned to keep cold weather away from the UK for the reliable future with the main core of the flow well North of the UK. Later next week it does show signs of moving South towards crossing the UK rather than locations to the North but it's orientation remains poor for any sustained cold outbreaks with just transitory NW'lies the only likelihood of anything below average later next week. In Summary the weather remains stubbornly locked into a High pressure based Winter pattern which provides days of anticyclonic gloom and benign weather. As the High shuffles about over the next 7 days there is some opportunity for clearer and cleaner air to flood South towards the weekend before this becomes displaced by Sunday by more of our current weather pattern lasting into the middle of next week. As on previous runs there is still evidence of a change to colder and more unsettled weather from the end of next week but this seems a lifetime away and if anything as been reined back this morning in it's spread and influence on this morning's output to just bring a day or two of colder air before the Atlantic bandwagon NW of the British Isles flattens the pattern to return milder air with rain at times, chiefly in the North. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Here's the latest from Gibby on the 12z models All models show a weak warm front drifting down over Southern Britain replacing todays brightness with overcast and damp conditions with light rain and drizzle for a while with hill fog and extensive mist developing. All areas then remain cloudy and somewhat milder with little in the way of frost, fog or brightness. On Friday a cold front moves down from the NW with a band of light rain ushering in clearer and colder conditions with NW winds and occasional showers, wintry in the North for a time. Then as the weekend unfolds winds back Westerly again and milder air returns across the North with more cloud while Southern areas see out the weekend with fine and bright conditions following overnight frosts. GFS then enters next week with mild Westerly winds across Northern Britain while Southern areas remain under High pressure with a similar split in conditions North to South as Sunday. Towards midweek a weak cold front crosses SE with another spell of drizzly rain. Things then become more changeable with a brief colder interlude with wintry showers in the North and East before rain at times and generally milder conditions take control towards the end of the run with largely West or SW winds. UKMO closes it's run next Tuesday with High pressure centred over England and Wales with fine and dry conditions with some frost and fog night and morning in the South while the North stays more cloudy and somewhat milder. GEM maintains its stance of this morning beginning next week fine and quite settled before more unsettled, colder and windier weather with rain and strong winds at times takes hold later in the week from the North. It will be cold enough for snow to fall on Northern hills at times. NAVGEM shows fine weather holding at the end of it's run as High pressure remains ridged up across Southern Britain. Weak troughs affect the far North and East at times with a little rain in temperatures close to average. ECM shows conditions steadily turning colder and more unsettled through next week as High pressure finally loses influence across the UK in preference to wet and windy conditions as Low pressure feeds down from the NW. Some snow may also occur on Northern higher elevations later in the week. The GFS Ensembles tonight show a trend towards more cold zonal type weather as Atlantic depressions take a more Southerly track across the UK and Europe with some cold air drawn South on their western flank. It is not shown to become particularly cold however from most of its members and snow would likely be restricted to Northern high ground. The Jet Stream shows the flow encircling an Anticyclone close to West and SW Britain for the remainder of the week before a slow trend to drag the flow South towards and over the UK next week commences. In Summary tonight there is little changes from this morning with only slightly different variations on a theme maintaining the trend for more unsettled and colder conditions to move down from the North at least for a time later next week. No deep cold is shown but it will certainly be cold enough for some snow on Northern high ground and it will certainly alter the complexion of the weather from that most of the UK has experienced recently with wind and rain becoming much more frequent a visitor than of late. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

The difficulties of long-term forecasting Following our first really cold snap this year there has been much speculation about what the winter will hold in store for us. Will it be the worst for decades, milder and more benign or just average? It's perhaps not surprising that any speculation catches our attention. As a nation we are obsessed with the weather, and severe winter weather in particular can impact greatly on our everyday life. As we head towards December it would be a bit odd if snow were not to fall at some stage across parts of the UK. It would be even more unusual if there wasn't frost in the forecast. We've already had both in the last week or two. No two winters are the same and part of the fascination with our climate is the variety that it throws at us. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere makes predicting its evolution beyond a few days increasingly difficult. The world's leading meteorologists, aided by powerful supercomputers, take on that challenge on a daily basis. From such efforts, we can glean vague signals of how the weather might be trending in the weeks ahead. Government and emergency planners are regularly advised with these forecasts. However, the certainty of such signals is admittedly very limited and the advice is carefully, and necessarily, delivered in terms of risk and probability rather than a day-by-day forecast. I could mischievously point to a striking similarity between the set-up of "highs" and "lows" this week compared with the weeks prior to the most severe winter of them all - 1962-63. However, I would be misguided to imply that pattern means our weather this year will follow a similar path. It's much more complicated than that. A bewildering array of interactions between the atmosphere and the oceans around the world will ultimately determine our winter, and our skill at modelling these is ever-evolving. Over the next few weeks the charts indicate a mixed bag of early winter weather, details of which can be found in our monthly outlook. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25108639

James Madden has hit out at the "unwarranted behaviour and comments towards Exacta Weather/myself elsewhere" he points the "trolls / haters" in the direction of his "accuracy page" I wonder what his response will be come the end of winter if we end up with a mild / average one So basically those who don't agree with his forecasts are "trolls / heaters" https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

New York will see a significant temperature drop in 24 hours 17c and heavy rain tomorrow (Wednesday) 1c and dry but cloudy on Thursday

US storm tracks northeast by Thanksgiving A winter storm sweeping across the US has already caused travel disruption in the run-up to Thanksgiving. BBC Weather's Philip Avery looks at the track of the storm and its potential impact in the coming days. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25108700

UKMO remains unchanged Friday unsettled becoming more settled from Saturday

This afternoon's NAO run continues to keep it either neutral or slightly positive out towards mid December

Its not quite high pressure all the way

The quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1982 is drawing to a close, the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Saturday http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20131125_endofhurricaneseason.html

The EC32 model has gone back to a settled / high pressure outlook well into December @MattHugo81 Some support from the CFSv2 but latest EC32 back on the high pressure trail, with a particularly settled/high pressure outlook well into Dec And from Ian Fergusson on Twitter â€@fergieweather the Met Office lean towards a slightly colder than average winter in their latest (Nov 21) assessment.

GFS temperature charts for the next 8 days continue to show most places becoming less cold 8 day anomaly Expected temperatures Normal temperatures for the time of year

The latest one for all of winter can be found at the link below, they are updated monthly http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2845038

Thanks Gibby completely different to certain headlines in the papers, a much more realistic view IMO

Mushrooms can change the weather, scientists reveal Mushrooms have an extraordinary ability to control the weather, scientists have learned. By altering the moisture of the air around them, they whip up winds that blow away their spores and help them disperse. Plants use a variety of methods to spread seeds, including gravity, forceful ejection, wind, water and animals. Mushrooms have long been thought of as passive seed spreaders, releasing their spores and then relying on air currents to carry them. But new research has shown that mushrooms are able to disperse their spores over a wide area even when there is not a breath of wind - by creating their own weather. Scientists in the US used high-speed filming techniques and mathematical modelling to show how oyster and super duperake mushrooms release water vapour that cools the air around them, creating convection currents. This in turn generates miniature winds that lift their spores into the air. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/10473002/Mushrooms-can-change-the-weather-scientists-reveal.html Mushrooms create their own WEATHER: Fungi alter nearby air humidity to create 'winds' that spread their spores far and wide Mushrooms have an extraordinary ability to control the weather, scientists have learned. By altering the moisture of the air around them, they are able to whip up winds that blow away their spores and help them disperse. Plants use a variety of methods to spread seeds, including gravity, forceful ejection, wind, water and animals. Mushrooms have long been thought of as passive seed spreaders, releasing their spores and then relying on air currents to carry them. But new research has shown that mushrooms are able to disperse their spores over a wide area even when there is not a breath of wind - by creating their own 'weather'. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2513292/Mushrooms-create-WEATHER-Fungi-alter-nearby-air-humidity-create-winds-spread-spores-far-wide.html?ico=sciencetech^mostread

Friday and Saturday look unsettled before we see pressure rising once more though remaining chilly

Cool winds, some rain Milder in west Becoming colder and more unsettled later next week http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131126

Try clearing your cache you could also try doing a full refresh Ctrl and F5

Dry in central EuropeWindy in ScandinaviaIssued: 0530hrs Tuesday 26th November 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Rain continues in southern Europe Tuesday Dry and sunny weather for Portugal and most of Spain on Tuesday. A few scattered blustery showers in the east of Spain, with some more prolonged falls of rain possible across the Balearic Islands. Northern Italy is mostly dry, but outbreaks of rain affect the east of the peninsula with some snow over high ground. Gusty winds in southern Italy too. Outbreaks of persistent rain and mountain snow also affect the Balkan states, Greece and Turkey. France is mostly dry with sunny spells, although there may be some wintry flurries for the Alps, extending into Switzerland and Austria. More cloud for Belgium and the Holland, with some patchy light rain. Germany and Poland are dry but chilly with some fog patches. Windy throughout much of Scandinavia, with persistent and heavy rain, plus mountain snow for western Norway. Wintry showers for Finland, brighter skies in southern Sweden. Wednesday Portugal and Spain will have another decent day on Wednesday with bright sunny spells. Some showers remain along the southern Costas. Further spells of heavy rain affect the Balearics and also southern France with some snow over higher ground too. Italy looks mostly dry, but still with some showery rain and hill snow. Some patchy rain and showers may continue to affect Turkey but becoming drier. Greece will see more dry and bright spells too. Still some snow in parts of Romania and Bulgaria. Dry but quite chilly weather extend across France, Germany, Switzerland and Austria. The Low Countries and Denmark will see more cloud and some light rain. Remaining windy in Scandinavia with outbreaks of rain around the Baltic. Frequent wintry showers continue in western Norway. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131126