Summer Sun

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Mainly dry Chilly Turning wintry? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131128

The bulk of that talk has come from the Express mainly though

The met office are also going for milder westerly winds to break through after the cold spell, backs up Ian's tweets earlier on This is from the 3rd to 12th of December Temperatures initially around normal for the time of year in the south, but it is set to turn colder from the north. Later in this period, the cold weather will gradually give way, first in the north, but finally in the south with milder westerly winds and unsettled weather reaching the north later. The south will probably remain more settled.

Hot off the press from Ian Fergusson on twitter Cold expected by nxt Fri & into weekend 7th hopefully shouldn't pose any snow issues here in S (a different story N & NE/E coastal England) Shouldn't last too long either: eventually, the cold shunted-off out to E as pressure rises again in from west and temperatures moderate. However, even after few days of the much colder weather, any upturn in temps will be to perhaps average at most, so still a chilly story...

Unsettled central areasColder northIssued: 0530hrs Thursday 28th November 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Cloud and some rain in central Europe, cold Scandinavia Thursday Fine and dry in Portugal, northern and central Spain on Thursday. Showers affect southern Spain, with some snow over the highest ground. Spells of rain affect the Balearics and also Sardinia. A few showers in eastern Italy again. Scattered showers and sunny spells in Greece and Turkey although feeling cool here. Dry and bright weather affect southern France, much of Switzerland and Austria, and into Hungary and the Ukraine too, although quite cold. Patchy rain and drizzle affect Belgium and southern Germany and the Czech Republic. Brighter skies but strong winds affect northern Germany and Denmark, with a few blustery showers possible in Poland and the Baltic States. Windy with gales for much of Scandinavia, feeling very cold in the wind with wintry showers in the north-west of Norway and Finland. Friday A few showers across parts of southern Spain through today. Most northern areas will be dry with sunny spells. Some heavy showers in the Balearics with these showers affecting eastern Spain too. Further showers in Italy, although foggy and frosty in the far north. Fair through Greece but showers for Turkey. A fine day in France with sunny spells, but some showery rain in the far north later/ Breezier with showery rain arriving i the Netherlands and northern Germany too. Most of the rest of Germany and Poland will be dry with sunny spells. A risk of some freezing fog in Austria, Hungry, southern Germany and Switzerland. Cloud and rain affecting Norway and Denmark today, some of this heavy at times. Fair across Sweden with sunny spells here. Fair conditions too for the Baltic States, and remaining fine across Finland. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

UK weather forecast: Start of December 2013 round-up IT all seems to have gone a bit quiet on the weather front after last week’s chilly spell. In fact it has felt comparatively mild in parts of the UK over the past few days with temperatures even nudging double figures in parts. So what is the outlook for the end of the month and the start of December? - which incidentally is the official start of winter. It is likely to turn cooler again, according to forecasters with another band of air heading in from the North. It is not expected to be as fiercely cold as parts of the UK last week as it is not Polar in origin but is coming from an Atlantic direction. The Met Office said it is going to stay cloudy with some patchy drizzle until Friday when things will turn a bit more wet and windy. Strong gusts are expected in the North which could touch gale-force, while more unsettled conditions will spread southwards through next week. Forecasters have also said it is going to turn colder from the North, with wintry weather again likely to spread southwards through next week.The Met Office said the worst of the unsettled conditions will affect northern and western parts, including Scotland, Wales and northern England. One of their forecasters also warned: “There are indications that temperatures are likely to remain below average for the time of year.†Netweather said things are set to turn colder from Thursday evening over northern Britain as “another cold front approaches from the westâ€.Forecaster Jo Farrow said: “Through the small hours the winds strengthen from the West with gales for northern Scotland. “Heavy rain will whisk across Scotland during the night with strong winds. Dawn on Friday will be damp for northern England briefly as the front moves down over southern England bringing more cloud. “Friday is then windy with a brisk cold northwest wind and showers feeding into western parts, bright spells too. “By Friday evening north-east Scotland and the Northern Isles will have some miserable weather, heavy rain and north-westerly gales.“Lively showers with hail and thunder possible will skirt along the North Sea coasts, driven by a strong northerly wind to start Saturday.†So the message seems to be get the hats and gloves out again as we head into December as things start to turn colder. After that, and there are of course suggestions of an unusually severe winter on the way with long-range forecasters saying January and February could dish up something pretty nasty.We will have to wait and see. http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/nathan-rao/445468/UK-weather-forecast-Start-of-December-2013-round-up

Latest from Gibby on the 00z models All models show a large High pressure close to SW Ireland with a light and slack NW flow affecting all areas with low level cloud cover bringing quiet and benign conditions to all areas over the next 24 hours. Through tomorrow cleaner and fresher, colder air will move SE behind a very weak cold front to reach all areas by evening with a dry and bright Saturday away from scattered showers over the North and East for a time, wintry over the hills. By Sunday the NW flow will of weakened as High pressure over the Atlantic ridges back in towards Southern Britain allowing milder and cloudier conditions to gradually topple down across the UK again from the NW through Sunday. This then persists in to the middle of next week with the likelihood of another spell of average temperatures under cloudy skies and light winds for all but the far North where freshening West winds and a little rain develops by then. GFS then brings a weakening band of rain SE later next week followed by a more coherent spell of rain on a marked cold front which sweeps SE at the weekend bringing very cold and wintry Northerly winds with gales and heavy snow showers to all areas, heavy and prolonged with accumulations in the North and East. On this morning's operational cold weather is then shown to last throughout the following week with snow showers and perhaps some longer spells of snow possible before things quieten down under High pressure at the end of the run but with severe night frosts likely. UKMO closes it's morning run with next Wednesday being mostly dry and rather cloudy still with a ridge from the Atlantic across the South. The North would see freshening Westerly winds later in the day with the risk of some rainfall later. GEM this morning shows a cold front slipping SE midweek and bringing a change to colder and dry weather with overnight frost and fog later next week before the High flattens out and milder Westerly winds sink South over Britain followed by another push of colder Polar Maritime air at the end of the run bringing back cold and frosty weather and some wintry showers in the far North and NE. NAVGEM shows pressure falling from the North later next week as Low pressure moves East to the North. The cloudy and benign conditions over the South would be maintained a while longer before a cold front would swing SE later next week to bring a spell of rain followed by colder weather with wintry showers in the North. ECM today shows a sharp drop in temperature later next week as Low pressure crosses East to the North and a cold front sweeps SE across all areas. The weather would turn windy and cold with snow showers over all coastal areas, heavy and accumulative over the North and East temporarily before the emphasis shifts to clear skies and widespread penetrative frosts next weekend as High pressure topples in from the West eventually cutting off the Northerly feed. The GFS Ensembles show only a very short cold snap towards next weekend before things recover to average or even a little above by the end of the run. The operational run is very isolated in it's persistence of cold beyond next weekend with many members showing rising temperatures including the Control run. Rainfall is very low with little for the next week across the South with only short spells of rain shown in Week 2 across the South while closer to average rainfall is likely towards the far North. The Jet Stream today is projected to stay well to the North and NW of Britain over the next 7 days before it turns SE down across the UK later next week. It isn't long though before it is shown to move back North to a position close to Iceland very late in the run. In Summary the next week is going to see a lot more of the same with a lot of quiet and benign weather under largely cloudy skies, very light winds and little in the way of rain, sunshine, frost or fog. There will be a temporary transition into a quieter and colder phase for 36-48hrs early in the weekend as a cold front clears SE leaving a short-lived legacy of scattered showers, wintry on hills in the North before the benign, milder and damper air returns on Sunday. It's not until later next week when a more active phase of weather looks like developing as High pressure gives way. A cold front looks like sweeping South delivering what looks like a short but sharp drop in temperatures with snow showers and strong Northerly winds with some likely accumulation of snow over Northern and Eastern high ground. Thereafter there is a strong balance of agreement between the GFS Ensembles and other models that High pressure will move back in across the UK later from the West which in turn will remove the snow shower risk but introduce some very cold nights with severe frost before milder Atlantic winds begin to edge their way back into the UK, first to the NW and on to other areas later. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

The ECM mean is not interested one bit in a northerly The GFS ensemble slowly builds pressure across the UK

Its tempting, but i think it will be a few weeks yet till we get to his style of play, now I've said that we'll probably win 5-0

ECM appears to be a cold outlier this evening, this is the ensemble

You can see on the ensemble where GFS has a cold outlier follow the black line on the 850's from the 7th to 11th the average from all the ensembles is the red line, still cold yes but not as cold as the Op suggests for now

Yeah it was

Latest from Gibby on the 12z models All models show a large High pressure area close to SW Britain and a mild and moist but light cloud laden NW flow over the UK. This pattern remains for another 36hrs or so with just very weak fronts injecting a little more moisture into the atmosphere at times with a little drizzle. On Friday fresher and chillier NW winds blow down over the UK as the High moves a little further away West briefly allowing some showers to occur, perhaps wintry on Northern hills for a time. By Saturday the bright and fresh weather will slowly become eroded from the West by milder Atlantic air, toppling back down over the UK with High pressure close to Southern Britain. As we start next week the High pressure slowly recedes away South or SE but maintaining a ridge across the UK well into the middle of next week maintaining dry and rather cloudy weather with temperatures close to average for many with only limited amounts of fog and frost by night should skies clear. GFS then shows Westerly winds steadily increasing later next week with some rain gradually winding it's way South across the UK reaching the South later on Thursday or early Friday with very much colder and brighter weather following down with wintry showers and strong winds giving some very wintry conditions over northern high ground for a time and even some wintriness in the showers over the South too for a while. Over the weekend conditions moderate for many but it would stay cold with a disturbance as shown bringing rain across the South a week on Sunday and some snowfall in the North before this shifts away SE as pressure builds strongly from the West later. Initially this could mean some very sharp frosts for a few nights early in the second week before an inversion develops with an infill of cloud setting up a cloudy and benign pattern to end the run with the mildness returning to the North in Westerly winds while High pressure remains straddled across the South. UKMO tonight shows High pressure in mid Atlantic with a ridge extending East over the UK with quiet and benign weather continuing at this stage with a lot of cloud, largely dry weather and temperatures close to average. GEM tonight shows a trough bringing a spell of rain SE across the UK next Wednesday followed by another surge of High pressure transferring slowly SE across Southern Britain and away to the SE towards the end of the run. A deep and slow moving Low pressure well North of Scotland sends some rain and strong winds across Northern Britain. A weakening band of rain on a cold front then swings SE across Britain followed by colder weather with wintry showers across the North but mostly dry weather further South. NAVGEM shows a weakening front too moving SE over Britain next week with some rain for a time before clearer and fresher weather moves in behind followed by more unsettled and windy weather reaching the NW later. ECM tonight shows a cold front running South again late next week with a short spell of rain followed by some wintry showers, more especially in the North and East, heavy briefly. Quickly following is another major rise of pressure with the UK returning to dry and benign conditions with frost and fog prior to milder air toppling back into the NW soon after Day 10. The GFS Ensembles show a change to colder conditions soon after midweek next week with a 3-4 day colder interlude before things recover to average levels. It is unlikely that any major snow events will occur over the South with most of any wintry action reserved for more Northern areas before things revert to milder weather towards the end of the run from most members. The Jet Stream flow shows it's axis carrying it well to the North of the UK around the Northern flank of High pressure to the SW of the UK. This persists for the reliable part of the output tonight before in the less reliable period it shows signs of migrating South across Britain, then resetting across Britain from the West. In the far reaches of the run it then is shown to extend back North across the Atlantic towards Greenland and Iceland. In Summary tonight the weather remain very static over the coming 7 days. Beyond that things do turn more interesting for a while as a cold plunge of Arctic air moves down across the UK from the North. There is a strong risk of snowfall over the North for several days mostly in the form of showers while the South is generally unlikely to see anything exciting before fine weather returns in association with more Atlantic High pressure. After some frosty nights towards the end of the second week it looks like milder Atlantic air with High pressure close to the South looks the most likely end result. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Thanks Paul, doesn't sound too bad much more realistic than the Express

High pressure shifts the northerly away at t240 it remains cold but back to square one over Greenland with low pressure back

And here is the northerly

t192 has a northerly incoming with the cold getting closer

t168 from ECM keeps the high over the UK

Yeah its still available with the added bonus now of the 850's to t144 ECM at t144 showing the colder air coming in to the north, the south remains mild for one more day

GEM is less cold than GFS by quite some margin at t240, it would probably get there in the end just slower GFS GEM GFS goes for a northerly whilst GEM goes for a north westerly

After the northerly we have the Atlantic high winning out in the end, no doubt about it though it turns cold maybe even very could for a time once more from GFS before milder air wins out

ECM for the same day And GEM

The ensembles do support a cooler spell later next week for a time

There longer term update yesterday and again today say temperatures would be below normal from later next week through to Christmas so Its not a big surprise to see that tweet.