Summer Sun

Once again though its in the far reaches of FI look at how the spell for the end of the week has gradually watered down, hopefully those in the MOD thread will take extreme caution till any further spells are down to t120 and lower

t240 sees the high just starting to edge up towards Greenland 850's remain average to above average

t192 sees the milder air over all the UK the

+8 850's at t168 for some SE remains the coldest spot in the UK, scandi high continues to build

t144 sees the high starting to extend further NE 850's continue to rise though surface temperatures could still be low for many

ECM in agreement with the other models now coldest air moves away for just about all on Saturday

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2808183

UKMO has the coldest air only affecting Scotland and the Eastern side of England now by Saturday the coldest air is in Eastern Europe +4 uppers very close to the south by Sunday

Baltic Britain: Up to EIGHT inches of snow this week as Arctic gusts will make parts of the country feel like it's -9C in the wind http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2516420/UK-weather-Arctic-gusts-week-make-country-feel-like-9C.html

Its all down to where the Jet stream sits As you can see here its to the west of the UK This allows the high to build to our east and drift to the UK This results in some milder air coming up from the south though not all will see this at first, the south west, west Wales and Ireland would see the highest temperatures

Yellow warnings for snow issued for most of Scotland http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1386201600

Snow Threat As Cold Blast Hits Britain Parts of the UK could be affected by snow by the end of the week as an Arctic blast causes temperatures to plummet. By Friday, average temperatures in England and Wales are expected to drop to just above freezing, with strong winds forecast for some coastal areas. Patchy rain could then turn into snow showers as the colder air hits the UK. Sky News weather presenter Nazaneen Ghaffar said: "Towards the end of this week the winds will swing round to a very cold northerly air flow bringing with it lower temperatures, below freezing across most places during nights with frosts, wintry showers and strong to gale force winds. "From Thursday a band of rain will spread southwards across the UK and the Republic of Ireland. "As that cold front clears to the south, there will be brighter conditions behind it from Friday. "High pressure will also keep it dry for many, albeit bitterly cold in the northerly winds, but there will be some showers in the north and along exposed coasts which will turn increasingly wintry." Snow is also forecast to fall on higher ground, especially in Scotland. Long term forecasts suggest temperatures across the UK could remain below average for much of December. November saw some snow showers in high areas of Scotland and North Wales. http://news.sky.com/story/1176440/snow-threat-as-cold-blast-hits-britain

CET home page confirms November as 6.2c which is 0.4c below the 61 to 90 average http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

December opens up with 5.8c which is 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

Get ready for arctic plunge: Up to eight inches of snow to sweep Britain AN “Arctic plunge†is set to trigger freezing temperatures this week and could bring snow across much of Britain by Friday. Severe gales are expected to sweep in from the North and cause blizzards on high ground. This could be only the start of a particularly bad winter with below-­average temperatures and heavy snow for three months, warn forecasters. They say the blast of cold air could see the mercury dip to -13C (9F) overnight in the North, bringing eight inches of snow with wintry showers as early as tomorrow and heavy snow forecast for Wednesday. It will feel bitterly cold in the South with night temperatures of -7C. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “The North and West will bear the brunt although nowhere will escape the risk of wintry showers,†he said. “There is a huge swathe of Arctic air set to flood into the North initially but moving down the country throughout the week. Severe gales are set to trigger blizzards in the North. “We are at risk of snow, ice and freezing fog hitting parts of the South with eight inches possible over high ground in the North.†He said Britain could be in line for a particularly severe winter with the worst of the weather expected at the end of December. “All the signals are that this winter could be a real shocker,†he added. “Especially the end of December and into the New Year, we could see parallels with some of the worst winters in history.†Netweather forecaster Nick Finnis said a blast of very cold air later this week could bring a risk of sub-zero temperatures at night, low temperatures by day, snow and strong to gale force winds. He said: “Major weather models are indicating a cold front surging south during Thursday, followed by a strong and bitterly cold northerly wind sweeping south across the UK. Friday looks like being a bitterly cold day, with a risk of snow showers.†Government forecasters are predicting below-average temperatures until April. http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/446299/Get-ready-for-arctic-plunge-Up-to-eight-inches-of-snow-to-sweep-Britain

Cold, settledGales, heavy showers in MediterraneanIssued: 0530hrs Monday 2 December 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Snow across Greece, E Europe Today It continues cold across much of Europe today. An area of heavy snow is forecast across Russia with snow showers across the Ukraine. Cold but expect a good deal of dry weather across Finland, The Baltic States into Poland, Germany and France through Spain and Portugal. Strong winds and heavy rain and showers continues from the Balearics into Italy, Greece and into Bulgaria while most of Turkey is dry. Fair and dry today across Belgium and Holland. For the Adriatic Region and the northern Balkans it also looks fair and dry but cold. Tuesday High pressure will give much of Europe a settled, dry day. Expect dry but rather cold conditions from Spain into France across into the Low Countries through Poland and The Ukraine. Heavy snow showers will affect Norway with cloud and light rain into Sweden with a mainly dry day across Finland. Snow is expected across northern Russia with rain across the Baltic States. Plenty of showers to come from the Balearics across into the far south of Italy with snow across Greece. Much of Italy should be fine and dry. Mainly dry but cold across Turkey, Romania and the Ukraine. Most of the Balkans and the Adriatic Region will be also cold but dry with sunny spells. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131202

ECM ensemble shows Friday will have strong northerly winds making it feel bitterly cold Saturday remains cold with the winds starting to ease as pressure rises from the west From Sunday pressure builds and it stays The 850's rise but whether surface temperatures respond remains to be seen

t168 has the high right over the UK

ECM at t144 UKMO at t144 GFS not in agreement with the other 2 UKMO and ECM look in decent agreement with GFS on its own once more

GEM is lining up its northerly According to Essex weather on twitter last night MOGREPS had it down to 1 day

GFS ensemble is rolling out now Looks like the northerly will still happen but it could be shorter lived than previously thought

Well then now UKMO has shifted the northerly east I wonder what the met offices thought's on this will be All down to ECM now if it also back tracks then a new trend may have been found by the models this afternoon

GFS still has the cold air

GFS 12z is now rolling out very little change so far at t78 from the 06z run Around t102 is when the 06z brought in the colder 850's to Scotland

Yep still early yet but Scotland looks the main focus for the snow up to Friday currently, Friday for this region looks sunny, cold and windy after a wet day on Thursday