Summer Sun

Early stats suggest an average Autumn this year - http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/statistics-announce-an-average-autumn/

November finished on 45mm here 15mm below the 81 to 10 average Final stats here - http://darlingtonweather.weebly.com/autumn.html

There is now increasing confidence that an arctic blast will sweep across the UK later this week with snow falling in northern Scotland from Thursday By Friday the arctic air will be across the UK with temperatures ranging from 0c in the northern Isles to 4c in the south

With an arctic blast coming later this week some areas will be seeing snow Post your reports here if you get snow

BBC weather for the week ahead video

The beebs weather for the week ahead shows an increasingly cold outlook with an arctic blast for all of us by Friday though snow doesn't look like it will affect to many of us away from Scotland Thursday sees the cold air starting to arrive turning the rain increasingly to snow over northern Scotland Friday sees the cold air over all the UK with gale force winds making it feel even colder For most in the east it will be sunny and cold with the west stuck under more clod the bulk of the snow lookd restricted mostly to Scotland

BBC weather for the week ahead First part of the week Often cloudy A few sunny spells Some rain Second half of the week Becoming colder Video to follow asap

The long term forecast as I posted above only gives temperatures from 12:00 to 18:00 To get precipitation forecasts you need the detailed long term forecast London - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/London/long.html Birmingham - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Birmingham/long.html Darlington - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Darlington/long.html Edinburgh - http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html

Here is the day time temperatures from Thursday according to ECM London Birmingham Darlington (7c and snow looks suspect to say the least) Edinburgh (5c and snow looks marginal) So as we can see there it looks fairly sunny snow is shown for some northern parts but with temperatures of 5c and 7c I wouldn't be so certain The north starts to see temperatures relax by the 9th (Edinburgh's average high for December is 7c so only just below average by the 9th)

06z ensembles show a steady rise in the 850's from Monday 9th still looking at 3 or 4 days for the coldest weather (either Thursday to Sunday could well be the coldest period)

Based on the met's cet here September was 0.1c above average

Gavin P has issued his winter forecast

November CET confirmed as 6.17C The first below average month since June

GFS is still pushing the high across a lot quicker than ECM Snow as far south as the IOW possibly

Batten down the hatches! Britain is as cold as Moscow FREEZING Arctic weather is set to batter Britain next week, making the UK as cold as Moscow. Forecasters warned the nation to prepare for sub-zero temperatures, icy winds and huge snow storms. And the mercury is forecast to plunge below zero, meaning Britain will shiver in the same -1C weather gripping the icy Russian capital. MeteoGroup forecaster Laura Caldwell explained: “Even though it’s relatively mild at the minute, it’s starting to turn with winds coming from a more northerly direction through the week. “By next weekend, we will see the really cold air drawn down from the Arctic, with chances of snow showers. “It will mainly be in northern, exposed parts, such as north Scotland, but also down the eastern and western coasts of Britain exposed to the northern wind.†Forecasters also predicted that parts of the UK will see icy wintry showers this weekend, pelting Christmas shoppers with freezing rain. Daytime temperatures in the north and Scotland won’t rise above a bone-chilling 4C today or tomorrow. Paul Michaelwaite, from forecaster Netweather explained: “We’ll see wintry showers along the east coast of Scotland, and other parts of Britain will also see showers. “The maximum daytime temperatures we’ll see this weekend are about 6 to 8C in England, although it will be a few degrees colder in the north and in Scotland. “However, much of the country will see overnight temperatures falling to as low as zero.†But there was some good news from the Met Office, which predicted there would be bright sunshine for much of the nation over the weekend. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/353381/Batten-down-the-hatches-Britain-is-as-cold-as-Moscow

Looking at ECM there is a 2 day window for snow before high pressure moves in By Sunday pressure rises so still cold but more settled GFS has snow for Scotland and some western parts the rest of it stays in the north sea though some coastal districts could catch some wintry stuff at times

Stormy MediterraneanCold and across EuropeIssued: 0530hrs Sunday 1 December 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Heavy snow Today A very unsettled and windy day across the Mediterranean with gales, heavy rain and heavy blustery showers from the Balearics east across Italy into Greece with snow across the Adriatic Region. Cold across Europe today. An area of heavy snow is forecast across Finland into Russia and Belarus with rain across the Baltic States into northern parts of Poland and Germany. A dry day across southern Poland, southern Germany and for much of France, Belgium and Holland. Cold but dry across much of Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Dry across much of the Balkans and Turkey today. Lots of sunshine is expected across Spain and Portugal but a cold day across Iberia. Monday It continues cold across much of Europe. An area of heavy snow is forecast across Russia with snow showers across the Ukraine. Cold but expect a good deal of dry weather across Finland, The Baltic States into Poland, Germany and France through Spain and Portugal. Strong winds and heavy rain and showers continues from the Balearics into Italy, Greece and into Bulgaria while most of Turkey is dry. Fair and dry today across Belgium and Holland. For the Adriatic Region and the northern Balkans it also looks fair and dry but cold. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

Wintry, short, cold snap Turning wintry later Becoming Bitterly Cold by Friday http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131201

Once again this morning the ECM gives 3 days of -5 or lower (-10 for Scotland) 850's before they start to relax The GFS ensemble also shows a few cold days before a rise in the 850's albeit quicker than ECM

First tweet from Matt Hugo regarding Christmas Christmas 2013: Primarily using EC32/CFSv2 and some other 'variables' Xmas, at this extremely early stage, looks unsettled / average temps.

Tonight's ECM ensemble shifts the coldest 850's away at t192 unlike the Op run Ensemble After this we have good agreement for less cold air to move in though surface temperatures would still be low and if skies cleared at night we could be looking at minus double digit temperatures especially in rural areas with any snow cover The GFS ensemble barely gets the -5 850's into England After that less cold air moves in

The weather outlooks winter forecast is out Winter 2013/14: Colder than average OverviewRather cold and drier than average. All regions likely to see some snow, but perhaps not as much as in recent winters.On balance many of the signals are thought to be very weakly biased towards milder conditions, but the forecast overrides these and suggests a colder than average winter for the UK. The key reasons for this are:i) 4 out of the last 5 winters have been colder than average suggesting background patterns are stacked in favour of colder wintersii) Tentative signs in late autumn of a more blocked pattern at mid-latitudes becoming established again Temperature The winter is expected to be slightly colder than average over the 3 month period. Precipitation Slightly below average over the 3 month period. December Temperature: Close to average Precipitation: Close to average January Temperature: Slightly below average Precipitation: Close to or slightly below average February Temperature: Slightly below average Precipitation: Slightly below average Full detailed forecast here - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

4 days of cold looks a decent bet before less cold air comes in from the west

Frost would all depend on the high if it was a cloudy high night time temps wouldn't drop enough

ECM ends with the high remaining in place Becoming less cold for all