Summer Sun

t216 sees the high starting to shift east cutting off any cold from the north less cold air just approaching Ireland

The high is further west at t192 compared to the 00z, heavy snow for some quite possibly

Here comes the colder air

@Glenn W GEM only goes to t240 GFS ensembles shows the 850's recovering around the 9th coldest period looks to be later next week

Once again GEM shows the coldest air moving away very quickly to be replace by milder air from the west to south west

Out of GFS and UKMO, UKMO continues to have the coldest 850's at t120 and t144 GFS UKMO 950mb low in FI from GFS

Maybe this is what is used?

A quick search of Google brings up accuweather http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940 https://www.google.co.uk/search?newwindow=1&site=&source=hp&q=OPI+forecast&oq=OPI+forecast&gs_l=hp.12...786.786.0.1441.1.1.0.0.0.0.52.52.1.1.0....0...1c.1.32.hp..1.0.0.2BxPnR8_h5A

And now the Daily Star and Daily Mail are copying the Express Three months of winter hell will see coldest Christmas on record BLIZZARDS will batter frozen Britain for the next three months, weather experts warned last night. Some forecasters are even predicting the coldest Christmas on record as temperatures plummet. The threat of extreme temperatures has already sparked fears of transport chaos, school closures and a flu epidemic. And yesterday councils were put on high alert after the Met Office issued its latest three month forecast for emergency planners. The report will send a chill down the spine of many Brits. It predicts a higher probability of below-average temperatures over the period. A Met Office spokesman said the prediction would be used by local authorities and other services to make plans, such as gritting icy roads. He said snow was forecast from today over higher ground, with temperatures plunging towards the end of next week. The icy blast is set to arrive weeks before the official start of winter on December 21. The cause is a band of polar air heading from the north. It comes after figures revealed last winter's deep freeze caused the deaths of 31,000 old people. The latest news will renew fears that bitter conditions could cost more lives, with A&E departments already struggling. People have been advised to check in on elderly neighbours during the big freeze. And panic buyers are expected to clear supermarket shelves of grit, de-icer and ice-scrapers, and emergency food supplies. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/353224/Three-months-of-winter-hell-will-see-coldest-Christmas-on-record Freezing weather to last until March: Britain to be stuck under cold front 'for the next three months' Britain will have to wrap up warm from next week as Arctic winds are expected to bring a cold front for the next month at least. Forecasters have warned temperatures in December and set to be lower than average for this time of year as the country is hit by northerly winds. While the temperatures are expected to remain mild throughout the weekend, a cold blast is due to start as we move through next week. The warning comes as other long-term forecasters have suggested the temperatures could remain below the winter average until March, according to the Daily Express. The average temperature for December is 3.9C, but Met Office forecaster Charles Powell said next month was looking as if it is going to be 'colder than usual'. He did say however that it should remain slightly drier and more sunny than average. He said: 'It looks as if we could be in for a colder spell as we go towards the end of next week, so Thursday to Friday and into the weekend is looking generally cloudy but a bit colder than we have seen recently. 'From the middle of the month for the rest of December it looks as if temperatures are going to remain near or slightly below average for this time of year, but otherwise pretty normal. 'So in terms of sunshine and rainfall there's nothing particularly signalling that there's going to be anything out of the ordinary.' Mr Powell said some snow could even be seen in parts of Scotland today, a risk which could continue for the next few weeks. He said: 'All the way through this 30 day period we have got this recurring theme of scattered showers in the north while the south of Britain will remain cold but dry. 'It might be colder than average across parts of the UK but in terms of snowfall, I don't think it's going to be a blanket.' http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2515481/Freezing-weather-March-Britain-stuck-cold-months.html

Yes tomorrow its out

Early indications from the met office suggest Scotland is on course for its sunniest November in 84 years

Early indications suggest Scotland is on course for its sunniest November in 84 years For the UK in general November was generally colder, drier and sunnier than normal

The Met Office’s outlook for UK winter There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the Met Office is warning of exceptionally cold weather for three months. However, the Met Office hasn’t issued a warning along these lines and we have not highlighted months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather ahead. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings. The news stories are based on information taken from our three month outlook for contingency planners, so let’s take a closer look at that. What does our three month outlook say? This outlook is not like our other forecasts because, as we have discussed previously, it’s not currently scientifically possible to provide a detailed forecast over these long timescales. Instead, the outlook assesses the level of risk connected to five different scenarios for both temperature and rain/snowfall. It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race. The current outlook for December-January-February says the chance of the coldest scenario happening is between 20 and 25% and the chances that the period will fall into the warmest scenario is between 10 and 15%. So while uncertainty is quite large, below average temperatures are more likely than above average (for note, average maximum temperatures for the UK in winter are about 6.6C and average minimum temps are about 0.9C). However, as with any horse race, it’s always possible that the favourite won’t win – so these probability scenarios have to be used in the right context. This is why they’re useful for contingency planners who plan ahead based on risk, but not that useful for the general public. So what will winter be like? Obviously there’s always a lot of interest to know what winter will be like – how cold will it be, how much snow will we get and where and when will it fall? The Met Office is working with research partners around the world to improve longer range forecasting, but it’s not currently possible to forecast snow or exact temperatures three months ahead. However, our 30-day outlook (under the text forecast tab) provides a look ahead to the general type of weather we’re likely to see in the UK. Currently it says that after today, we’ll see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into the first of December before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of next week. This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather. For the mid to latter part December, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely. With regards to forecasting snow, because there are so many factors involved, generally that can only be discussed in any detail in our five day forecasts. If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/11/29/the-met-offices-outlook-for-uk-winter/

He tweeted it just before 8:30 this morning The met office have also issued an outlook for winter http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2848537

The met office response to the nonsense above the Met Office suggest cold spell later next week should be fairly short-lived ahead of return to W/SW flow & settled weather Curtsey of Ian on twitter

Too far out yet TBH we'll know better after the 12z runs on Tuesday or Wednesday

Yeah it will be below average, Wednesday had a high of 12c which felt mild yesterday was 10c Anyway the fog didn't last long it was all gone just after 22:00 A lot brighter today though its quite windy and its a cold wind

Snow later? Mostly high ground Wintry later in the week, but mostly dry before http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131129

GEM is not so keen on a cold spell to the extent of ECM Next weeks cold will last till March according to a certain newspaper, more like 3 or 4 days

Oh dear the express are back The BIG freeze: Get ready as sharp icy blast returns to last three months THREE months of exceptionally cold weather are on the way, the Met Office warned last night. Temperatures are set to plummet and are likely to remain below the winter ­average right through until March. The big freeze will begin next week with snow in the North and an icy blast bringing an end to the brief mild spell in the South. That will be just the start of what one expert described last night as “a long, hard winterâ€. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “A significant change to much colder ­conditions is likely to develop next week. This ­wintry blast has all the ingredients to become a potentially widespread snow event. “This will give an appropriate feel to the weather at the start of what is set to be a long, hard winter with abundant snowfall. “January in particular could see temperatures hovering at several degrees below the seasonal average for a prolonged period of time.†http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/445766/The-BIG-freeze-Get-ready-as-sharp-icy-blast-returns-to-last-three-months

Cold, WintryUnsettled in the MediterraneanIssued: 0530hrs Friday 29 November 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Heavy Snow Today Cold with heavy outbreaks of snow across Norway. Rather cloudy but dry across Sweden with sunny spells of Finland. An area of moderate to heavy rain will affect Denmark, far north of Germany, Holland and Belgium. Most of France will be fair and dry as will central and southern parts of Germany. Some snow may affect the extreme southern part of Poland, otherwise a dry day with sunny spells. An area of heavy or snow will affect most of Russia, Belarus and the northern half of the Ukraine. Southern Ukraine should remain dry. Expect some scattered snow flurries across Romania, but a dry day to come across Bulgaria, the Adriatic Region and much of the Balkans. Western parts of Turkey will be dry and mostly sunny with rain and snow showers across eastern Turkey. Heavy showers or some more longer spells of rain will affect central Mediterranean from Sicily across to the Balearics. Apart from the odd shower, most of Italy should be fair and dry. Still quite cold across Spain, but it looks fine and sunny. A strong easterly wind will prevail through the Straits of Gibraltar. Saturday Much colder across eastern Europe today has temperatures plummet to below zero for highs. Some zero temperatures are also affected across most of Scandinavia. Generally cold again across much of Europe. Heavy snow is in the forecast for Finland a dry day across Russia and the Baltic States. Some light snow is expected across Belarus into southern parts of Germany across into Austria and the Alps where it will become heavier. Northern parts of Poland will be wet with rain. Some snow in the far south of Germany as well with rain in the extreme north. A few showers to come across Holland and Belgium today. Most of northern France be fair and dry as will England. Mostly dry across the Balkans and the Adriatic Region as an area of heavy rain runs up across Greece, the southern half of Italy into Sicily. Unsettled across western Mediterranean as well. Outbreaks of rain are expected across the Balearics with showers around Corsica and Sardinia. Some rain will edge into the far north of Spain with central and southern parts of Spain and Portugal dry. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

Once again ECM shows 2 cold days UK wide (though the north gets 3) later next next potentially very cold for some before high pressure moves in at the end shifting the coldest air away east t168 sees the arrival of the cold air in the north So a 3 day cold snap (2 for some) before temperatures start to relax

From Ian on Twitter

Very foggy out there tonight which is no surprise given the damp ground and mild temperatures we've had around yesterday and today

WSI have issued there final winter forecast WSI: Cold Early, Warmer Late This Winter in Europe Strong Polar Vortex May Limit Biggest Cold Risk to December Andover, MA, 27 November 2013 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects below-normal temperatures for the aggregate winter period (December-February) across parts of southern and southeastern mainland Europe and southwestern Russia, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere.According to WSI Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “We continue to see indications that the coldest weather will occur early in the winter, with warmer risks more likely in the back of half of the winter. The polar vortex remains much stronger than normal, and many of our internal models suggest that it will more difficult to trigger a sudden warming of the stratospheric polar vortex that often precedes very cold periods in February or March. However, in the near term, we do expect widespread below-normal temperatures across mainland Europe during at least the first half of December. We expect that these colder risks will fade as the winter progresses, resulting in higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures heading into January and February.â€In December, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Colder than normal Northern Mainland – Colder than normal Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except IberiaIn January, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Warmer than normal Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far east and western Russia Southern Mainland – Warmer than normalIn February, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region – Warmer than normal UK – Warmer than normal Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal Southern Mainland – Colder than normal http://www.wsi.com/e5caee4e-ce08-42ea-8503-945d6693f3db/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm