Summer Sun

The high at t192 is further east tonight on ECM with winds coming from the south west it certainly wouldn't be cold

In the short term the general idea is for the cold air on Friday to move east and milder air moving over the UK GFS temps from Sunday shows most places getting above average early next week by Wednesday it could become cooler for many

Anyone fancy a 1070mb Greeny high ?

Weather onlines month ahead forecast including a look at Christmas which may well be Green Valid from 30/11 to 27/12 2013Dry overallIssued: Wednesday 4th December 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob Plenty of dry weather, only a brief colder snap The area of high pressure which has been hanging around the UK and Ireland for the past few weeks looks set to remain our guest for much of December. It is likely to be a dry month for many, and although cool at times, there are signs of a only a brief colder snap around the middle of the month. 8/12/13 to 13/12/13* High pressure is expected to be in control of conditions through the course of the coming week. This is going to be bringing plenty of dry weather across much of the UK and Ireland. It is likely to be mild for a while, especially into the middle stages of the week. Indications of temperatures slipping later in the week, although probably becoming 'cool' rather than 'cold'. *14/12/13 to 20/12/13* There is consistency from models that high pressure remains the main factor in the weather through the week. This brings more dry weather. However, temperatures are expected to be slowly slipping as the week progresses, and by the middle to end of the week it may be fairly cold. There is likely to be a fair amount of cloud around too, the best of any sunshine always in the west. In areas of lighter winds, such as Scotland and northwest England as well as the northern half of Ireland, winds may be light enough to allow mist and fog patches to form. The risk of a frost increases through the week. *21/12/13......27/12/13* The area of high pressure is expected to again be dominant in the run up to Christmas, although it may be that the winds become more south to southeasterly leading to slightly milder conditions. There is the threat of some rain in the far west, but the east is expected to remain dry. It's hard to see any signs of a White Christmas! *28/12/13......3/1/14* Conditions may become a little more mixed through the New Year period. Cloud and rain could affect more southern areas, with the north dry. Rain reaching the north later, possibly preceded by some wet snow. There is the chance that as we enter the new year a spells of strong southwest winds may ensue, bringing more unsettled conditions. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20131204

Wrap up very warm! Snow and Arctic winds set to hit the nation tomorrow BRITAIN is on alert for Arctic storms ­ripping across the country tomorrow as winter roars in. Up to 10 inches of snow could hit parts of the exposed North with bitterly cold gusts of almost 100mph over high ground, said forecasters. The Met Office issued severe weather warnings for violent gales across much of the UK plus a snow alert in Scotland until Friday. The whole of Britain could see snow flurries by the end of the week. With windchill, overnight temperatures could plunge to -11C (12F) in parts of the North over the next few days while dipping to -5C in the South, including London. Met Office spokeswoman Nicky Maxey said an Atlantic depression will move in tonight with 90mph gusts in the North. She said: “This could lead to travel disruption especially across Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. “Large waves may also cause flooding in Orkney and the Western Isles and along the East coast of England. “Everywhere is going to experience a very short cold snap.†Other experts predicted gusts of up to 100mph over Scottish mountains ­tomorrow and up to 10 inches of snow over very high ground in the North. Jonathan Powell, of Vantage Weather Services, said: “The full force of the Arctic blast is set to hit on Thursday. “The odd snow flurry could be seen ­almost anywhere.†Coral cut odds of snow in ­central London this weekend to 5-1. Spokeswoman Nicola McGeady said: “With temperatures set to plummet, we have had an avalanche of bets on a white weekend.†http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/446645/Wrap-up-very-warm-Snow-and-Arctic-winds-set-to-hit-the-nation-tomorrow

Yesterday the NAO was showing to go negative this afternoon its a complete turn around

NAO from yesterday showing a very clear trend, a negative one 2 successive update its going negative I wonder what today's update will show The ensembles are very clear this morning from Sunday or Monday for around 10 days we have 850's above average across the UK

Cold then very mild Becoming mainly dry Severe Gales Thursday http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131204

Spain dry and sunnyStormy in northern EuropeIssued: 0530hrs Wednesday 4th December 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Fine weather spreads through the Mediterranean Wednesday Bright and sunny weather for Portugal, Spain and France on Wednesday. Just an isolated shower possible in southern Spain. Italy sees an improvement too, with mostly dry conditions. A scattering of showers for Greece and remaining breezy. Some persistent rain for southern Turkey with mountain snow. Plenty of cloud across northern France, Belgium and Germany with outbreaks of light rain and drizzle around North Sea coasts. Switzerland and Austria are dry with sunny spells. Dry weather for eastern Europe, with more cloud in Poland. Rain spreads into the Baltic states, whilst Finland and Sweden will have sunny spells and are mostly dry but cold. Persistent falls of snow affect western Norway, with strong winds. Thursday Another bright and sunny day for Spain and Portugal, with fine conditions extending to southern France, the Balearics and Italy. Greece and Turkey see mostly dry and bright weather, with just the odd shower. More cloud for northern France, with blustery winds. Germany is largely dry but with strong winds by the afternoon in the north bringing rain later. Gales developing for the Low Countries and Denmark, by afternoon, and heavy falls of rain. Stormy seas affect North Sea coasts too. Partly cloudy but dry through Switzerland, Austria and Hungary. Some heavy snow throughout Norway, and rain in southern Sweden, possibly turning to snow. Some showers in Finland but brighter weather here. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131204

ECM ensemble doesn't look as good for an easterly tonight +5 850's widely as well

20:30

ECM has high pressure and mild air dominating tonight Once these patterns develop in winter they can take a long time to shift as we've found out before

The latest video from the beeb shows the milder air making its move during Friday pushing the cold air east Tonight's UKMO And the latest thoughts from the met office I think the biggest concern over the next 3 days is the wind speeds for the north on Thursday

Looking at the BBC's latest video the cold air won't make it into the south west and much of Ireland with the exception of northern Ireland Thursday Then during Friday the milder air is making its move And this is how things looked on Sunday Just goes to show how quickly things have changed

BBC weather for the end of the week Gales Brief cold blast Milder for the weekend http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/25201359

GEM is not interested in any cold infact it becomes very mild +14 850's for some with +12 widely at the end before that we have +8's widely

UK set to be covered in snow as the big chill takes over BALTIC Britain is set to suffer freezing -4C weather and up to eight inches of snow. A cold-snap will grip the nation from Thursday, weather forecasters warned yesterday. Britain will be as cold as Swedish capital Stockholm, with widespread chaos expected on the roads, railways and at airports. Meteogroup warned that Scotland, Wales, northern and eastern England will suffer icy winds and snowstorms. Meteorologist Rachel Vince said: “The winds will turn more northerly on Thursday afternoon through Friday, bringing cold air down from the Arctic, and it will be very unsettled with snow showers. It is largely northern and western Scotland that will get the snow showers.†Northern areas could see eight inches (20cm), with up to 4cm elsewhere, with icy showers reaching south to Norfolk. But forecasters reckon the sub-zero cold snap will only last for the weekend. Rachel added: “It will be milder for the start of next week.†http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/353821/UK-set-to-be-covered-in-snow-as-the-big-chill-takes-over So widespread chaos expected on the roads, railways and at airports yet the snow will be largely in northern and western Scotland, hardly widespread chaos is it

The met office are now hinting at the potential for something colder in the south and east just after mid December UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Dec 2013 to Wednesday 1 Jan 2014: Generally unsettled, particularly towards the north and northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier and brighter conditions further south and southeast. Temperatures look to be around normal, although there is the potential for colder than average temperatures across the south and east during the start of the period. One to keep an eye on especially after Ian's update this morning

ECM shows temperatures rising rapidly for Darlington through the weekend after a cold day on Friday

Latest text update from the met office for the region Outlook for Thursday to Saturday: Thursday very windy with gales and a spell of rain. Coastal wintry showers follow, these dying away Friday leaving a cold, increasingly sunny day. Saturday becoming milder with occasional rain.

Wintry at first Becoming milder in west High pressure tries to build over Europe http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131203

Plenty of dry weatherWindy in the northIssued: 0530hrs Tuesday 3rd December 2013 Duty forecaster: Garry Nicholson Still some showers in the Mediterranean Tuesday High pressure is in charge across much of central continental Europe, with dry and fine conditions for many areas. Spain and Portugal will see good spells of sunshine on Tuesday, with just a few showers possible along the south-eastern Costas and the Balearics. Italy will see some heavy and thundery rain in the south, whilst it is dry in the north. Showers also affect the Balkan states and Greece. Strong winds affect Greece and Turkey too. Dry weather affects France, Germany and the Alpine states, although feeling cold. More cloud will affect northern regions however, with blustery winds for Denmark and the Baltic. Some showers affect Scandinavia, with more frequent snow showers in the west of Norway Wednesday Bright and sunny weather for Portugal, Spain and France on Wednesday. Just an isolated shower possible in southern Spain. Italy sees an improvement too, with mostly dry conditions. Again a shower is possible in the south. A scattering of showers for Greece and remaining breezy. Plenty of cloud across northern France, Belgium and Germany, whilst Switzerland and Austria are dry with sunny spells. Bright skies for eastern Europe, with more cloud in Poland. Windy with outbreaks of rain for Denmark and the Baltic States. Some brighter and breezy weather in Finland, whilst persistent falls of snow affect western Norway, with strong winds. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

Forgot yesterdays update Short cold snap Becoming milder Gales at first http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131202

SNOW WARNING: Arctic storm set to blast Britain with 90mph gales and crippling blizzards ARCTIC gales of 90mph are gearing up to batter many parts of Britain with eight inches of snow expected in remote areas. A huge swathe of the country is braced for the gusts, bringing crippling blizzards over high ground in the North. The Met Office last night gave a severe weather warning for much of the country on Thursday. It issued an alert for heavy snow in the North and said potentially destructive waves will lash coastal regions. Forecaster Dan Williams predicted heavy snow on high ground and wintry showers along coasts on Friday. The country could see isolated snow showers before the weekend as temperatures plunge from tomorrow, he warned. He said: “A low pressure system is set to move across the UK with a large part of the country in for strong winds from Wednesday. “Nowhere should be surprised to see some snow or hail by Friday with up to 20cm (8ins) expected over high ground. Cold air is being pulled down from the Arctic direction from Thursday.†The Met Office said: “Warm air crossing the Atlantic will encounter very cold Arctic air which will cause a low pressure system to develop later on Wednesday. “As this system moves eastwards into Scandinavia this is likely to bring very strong westerly winds to northern and central parts of the UK. Netweather warns of “Arctic gales and snow†at the end of the week with the risk of blizzards. Forecaster Nick Finnis said: “Wednesday sees the cold front across the North continue south across England and Wales. Thursday will turn unsettled from the North, as a band of rain and strong winds sweeps south, reaching southern England in the evening. “The northerly wind will strengthen to gale or severe gale force towards the evening across northern and eastern areas, bringing a risk of blizzard conditions in any snow showers and drifting of snow. Friday will be a rather cold but bright or sunny day, with a distinct wind chill.†http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/446430/SNOW-WARNING-Arctic-storm-will-blast-Britain-with-90mph-gales-and-crippling-blizzards

ECM ensemble also shows the high building towards Scandinavia to what extent it does remains to be seen