Summer Sun

t216 sees the coldest air shifting away east with the high in control So 3 very cold days (4 for Scotland) from ECM before a return to less cold weather as per the met office nothing prolonged

t192 has the high across the UK less cold air just edging into Ireland but remaining cold for all at the surface

Quick look at the 850's from the big 3 at t144 and ECM remains the coldest UK wide, UKMO is second with GFS 3rd

High slightly further east by t168 remaining cold for the 3rd day......... At least one model with have this on its face regarding this spell but which will it be

No backing down from ECM

Still looks short lived Ian Fergusson has just tweeted this Hopefully in-out of cold snap late next week pretty speedily, as @metoffice always suspected. No 3-month gig as progged by Express 'experts'

Towards the end of GEM's run the Atlantic high is approaching but first the delayed northerly arrives

Once again GEM is struggling to get the coldest air in

Well you see anyone who replies and doesn't agree with him has the comment deleted so he's probably had enough of deleting them

GFS has now removed any chance of snow on Friday for this region Same times as above Only chance now is Thursday evening

Hats off to GFS if its called this right its never been keen to prolong this cold by much more than 2 or 3 days, the same can be said for GEM as well

It appears so even those who "like" the page can't comment

GFS out to t72 and so far it looks pretty much as you were

The latest met office update from the 5th to 14th suggests snow later next week even in some wintery stuff in some southern parts before milder air returns Showers may turn wintry in the south later on Thursday and during Friday but the south and southwest should see the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be below normal and feel colder still in the wind. Little change is expected during the weekend, with unsettled and cold weather continuing, and snow for northern Britain in particular. Thereafter, milder conditions are likely to spread from the west across much of the UK, with some more settled weather over the south.

6.6 to the 29th bang on the 61 to 90 average

Weather wars: Met Office denies predicting three months of exceptionally cold weather amid reports of Britain's 'coldest winter ever' The Met Office has once again responded to reports that this winter could be the coldest ever after a rash of headlines warning of three months of record-breaking icy cold weather. A number of newspapers this morning published articles warning of a 'killer three month freeze' that is expected to hit Britain in days. The reports also warned that the winter could be one of the 'worst in history'. The reports cited a Met Office three-month contingency plan that states: “Indications are that December will most likely be colder than average. “For December-January-February as a whole uncertainty is quite large but below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average."But also quotes forecasters other than the Met Office suggesting that this winter could see record breaking cold weather. In a blog posted today the Met Office sought to distance themselves from the report and explain once again why three month forecasts are not accurate. The furthest afield they can forecast is 30 days - but stressed that if there is any sign of significantly cold weather, they will update the information given to the public accordingly. The Met Office blog post said of its most recent outlook: "Currently it says that after today, we'll see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into December 1 before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of the week. This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather. "For the mid to latter part of December, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely." In a previous blog the Met Office explained the complexities related to providing detailed forecasts over the long-term. The blog explains that our weather is a "classic example of what is known as a chaotic system" being influenced as it is by a range of tiny factors that could have a huge impact. They quoted one scientist as saying "one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever". Hence atmospheric 'chaos' means that long range forecasting is particularly difficult. The blog goes on to state: "Speculative forecasts appearing in the media and claiming to accurately and definitively forecast UK weather months ahead are therefore doomed to failure when analysed over a long period of time." Despite various experimental methods aimed at long-term forecasting it remains an inexact art. As for this winter the Met Office is saying that as things stand, December is set to be "fairly normal". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-wars-met-office-denies-predicting-three-months-of-exceptionally-cold-weather-amid-reports-of-britains-coldest-winter-ever-8973755.html Severe winter coming? Not necessarily, says Met Office Britain’s official weather forecasters today poured cold water on media reports that the country was heading for one of the severest winters in years. The Met Office said that, although there was a chance of below-average temperatures over the next three months, it could also be warmer than normal. http://www.grough.co.uk/magazine/2013/11/29/severe-winter-coming-not-necessarily-says-met-office UK Weather: 'It Will Not Be Exceptionally Cold This Winter' Met Office Says The Met Office has given a clear-as-mud weather warning, predicting that the next three months may or may not be exceptionally cold. In a blog post on Friday, the forecasters said Britain was more likely to see below-average temperatures than above-average temperatures - but noted that the "uncertainty is quite large". As things stand, December is set to be "fairly normal", however. The furthest afield they can forecast is 30 days - but stressed that if there is any sign of significantly cold weather, they will update the information given to the public accordingly. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/11/29/uk-weather-forecasts-uncertain_n_4359617.html

Potential for some snow next Friday With 6 days to go this needs caution to be taken as always with any potential snow events

Northern Scotland and parts of England have a decent chance of seeing some snow next Friday at this stage South of the Midlands only sees sleet

Cold northRain MediterraneanIssued: 0530hrs Saturday 30th November 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Cold north with unsettled Mediterranean Saturday Much colder across eastern Europe today has temperatures plummet to below zero for highs. Some zero temperatures are also affected across most of Scandinavia. Generally cold again across much of Europe. Heavy snow is in the forecast for Finland a dry day across Russia and the Baltic States. Some light snow is expected across Belarus into southern parts of Germany across into Austria and the Alps where it will become heavier. Northern parts of Poland will be wet with rain. Some snow in the far south of Germany as well with rain in the extreme north. A few showers to come across Holland and Belgium today. Most of northern France be fair and dry as will England. Mostly dry across the Balkans and the Adriatic Region as an area of heavy rain runs up across Greece, the southern half of Italy into Sicily. Unsettled across western Mediterranean as well. Outbreaks of rain are expected across the Balearics with showers around Corsica and Sardinia. Some rain will edge into the far north of Spain with central and southern parts of Spain and Portugal dry. Sunday A cool and breezy day through Spain and Portugal today. There will be a few showers in the east but dry to the west. More unsettled in the central Mediterranean with low pressure bringing rain through the Balearics and Italy and well as Greece. Turkey should be drier with some sunshine. A fair day to come across central and northern France. A few showers in the Low Countries and northern parts of Germany. Windy with some snow in northern Poland, but fair to the south. Fair through Switzerland and Hungary as well as Austria. A windy and cool day in Norway and Denmark with some heavy, wintry showers. More wind and showers in Sweden, and some snow showers to come through the Baltic States. Snow showers in Finland too. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131130

Lots of Dry Weather Turning Wintry Coming Bitterly Cold http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131130

Looking at the ECM ensemble its 3 cold days max before less cold air comes in from west t216 and t240 sees less cold air moving across the UK GFS ensemble is also in support of less cold air coming in At t144 UKMO has -12 850's over northern Scotland ECM has -8 850's GEM has -6 850's over Scotland with -8's just approaching the far north GFS has -8 850's

ECM ensemble shows -5 850's covering all of the UK at t168 and t192 -10 850's just clip northern Scotland By t192 the ensemble shows pressure slowly building over the UK with the 850's slowly recovering though it would remain cold at the surface

Its not quite no chance as cold air does hit the north looks similar to GEM by keeping any cold short lived

Just imagine if we get another "that ECM" style let down after last years let down, all hell would break out in the MOD thread

t240 sees the coldest air gone into eastern Europe, high pressure back in control with clear sky at night some sharp frosts would occur especially in any rural areas with snow cover, surface temps would remain cold given the cold air proceeding it