Summer Sun

Now get ready for an ‘Ice Age’ as experts warn of Siberian winter ahead BRITAIN faces a new mini-Ice Age with decades of severe Siberian winters and washout summers, an expert has warned. Professor Mike Lockwood, of Reading University, said erratic and extreme weather patterns could be the norm in 20 years. He said the risk of harsh winters and wet miserable summers has gone up to 25 to 30 per cent compared with 10 per cent a few years ago. Weakening sunspot activity is to blame for a “major change†in the UK’s weather he told BBC TV. He said: “The sun is ‘quietening’ really rapidly. We think it is actually quietening more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years. “So this is a major change. We think lower solar activity does seem to tie up with more cold winters in central Europe and the UK.†Climatologist Dr Dennis Wheeler from Sunderland University, said: “When we have had periods where the sun has been quieter than usual we tend to get these much harsher winters.†The comments follow unusual weather patterns over the past few years including the extreme winter of 2010 and this summer’s heatwave. They also come after the Met Office suggested earlier this year that the country may be in for a decade or more of washout summers. It said the country was in the middle of a rare weather cycle caused by a shift in the jet stream in the upper atmosphere. Since the cycle began in 2007 six summers have been damper than average. Last year saw the heaviest rainfall in a century leading to England’s wettest summer on record. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/439701/Now-get-ready-for-an-Ice-Age-as-experts-warn-of-Siberian-winter-ahead

The Daily Express New deadly storm on the way is splashed across the front page

Up to 11.2c now Continued sunshine and a cooler NW wind

Experts warn us to expect hurricanes every year The UK could be hit by extreme weather events, like the tornados and hurricanes which batter the US. Yesterday’s storm of St Jude was the worst to hit Britain since 1987. But experts said it could be the first of many megastorms because of climate change. Fiona Brookes, of the Campaign Against Climate Change said: “There is an increased likelihood of extreme weather events in Britain. “Hurricanes are more likely, partly because our oceans are getting warmer. “Scientists don’t like to talk about anything as a certainty, because we simply don’t know. “But one thing that we can say for sure is that the UK’s weather system is so complex that we will see more and more extreme weather. “Climate change means our seasons have moved out of sync.†A Met Office spokesman said there was no certain way of predicting whether Britain would see more weather extremes in the future. He said: “It’s not part of a wider pattern. There’s no evidence to suggest when the next storm will be.†http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/347871/Experts-warn-us-to-expect-hurricanes-every-year- At least 61,000 homes are still without power as Britain's starts to recover from chaos caused by the St Jude's storm http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2478759/St-Judes-storm-leaves-61k-homes-power-recovery-starts.html

Daily Express ramping up the next storm for the weekend New deadly storm on the way after 100mph gales claim 6 lives http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2822327

New deadly storm on the way after 100mph gales claim 6 lives THE death toll from Britain’s violent storm last night hit six as forecasters were warning that more catastrophic weather is on the way. Winds nudging 100mph and torrential downpours left a trail of devastation around the country in the early hours of yesterday. Tens of thousands of homes in the South were left without power, trees were uprooted, trains and flights cancelled and floods crippled huge swathes of the UK. The cost of the clean-up is thought to be at least £1billion as the country recovers from the worst autumn storm for more than a decade. Forecasters last night warned the UK is braced for a second wider onslaught as another “deep low†pressure system brews over the Atlantic. James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “Another period of very stormy weather and potentially damaging winds may also develop later in the week and into next weekend. “This storm may also have the potential to become more widespread than the St Jude storm that we have just experienced. “It will begin to turn much cooler than of late as we progress throughout this week, with the risk of ground frosts in parts of the North by midweek." Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: "We could see more strong winds and more torrential downpours from Thursday. "This time though it is the North which is more at risk from some very strong winds. Just as we clean up after the last storm there is another deep low headed for the UK." http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/439848/New-deadly-storm-on-the-way-after-100mph-gales-claim-6-lives

13.1c to the 28th 2.2c above average 2nd warmest month of the year currently July was 2.3c above average

Wall to wall sunshine, chilly NW wind 9.2c and rising

Over 57,000 homes are still without power after a storm battered Britain. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24723028

Unsettled Rain and Showers Near-Normal Temperatures http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131029

Dry eastern EuropeChilly across EuropeIssued: 0530hrs Tuesday 28 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Fine across Balkans, pleasantly mild Today A windy day across northern Europe and also across southern France. Sunnier and drier across Britain and northern France. A few sharp showers will affect Belgium, Holland and Denmark. Colder across Norway with sunny spells and a few snow showers in the west. Dry across Sweden with sunny spells while rain is forecast across Finland and showers for the Baltic States. An area of rain is expected across southern France, The Alps and Austria. It stays fine and dry across the Adriatic Region and across the Balkans. Sunny and dry across Turkey, Greece and Italy. Cloudy with rain into the Balearics with a risk of showers for eastern parts of Spain. Portugal and western Spain will be dry and sunnier. Wednesday Rain spreads in across England. Lots of fine, sunny weather to come across France but windy in the south. Cool but dry with sunny spells across Portugal and Spain. Apart from coastal showers, it's also a dry day across Belgium, Holland and Denmark. Cold but dry and sunny weather is forecast across Norway, Sweden and Finland. Showers are expected across the Baltic States but dry across Russia, Belarus and most of Poland and Germany. Some rain may affect the Czech Republic and Austria. Lots of sunshine to be had across the Ukraine, The Adriatic Region down across Greece and into Turkey. Fair, pleasantly warm and dry across Italy with an area of rain moving towards the Balearics later in the day. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20131029

Latest from Gibby All models paint an unsettled picture for the remainder of the week. Having said that the weak NW flow today will be superseded by a ridge of high pressure crossing tonight. Hard on it's heels will be a cold front which will cross the UK through tomorrow with a band of rain followed by a showery Westerly flow on Thursday, most of the showers to the North and West. On Friday complex synoptics with pressure falling means all areas can expect some rain at some point, heavy for a few before a more coherent spell of wet weather crosses from the West to begin the weekend followed by a very showery cyclonic flow with strong winds from the West or NW for many Southern areas late in the weekend. GFS shows a very unsettled operational run this morning with a strong Westerly flow throughout carrying gales and bands of rain and showers frequently East which lasts through much of next week before a High pressure ridge extends North over the UK at the end of the run with much lighter winds and frost and fog. UKMO today closes it's run with deep Low pressure out over the North Sea with trailing Low pressure over the UK and the Atlantic gives rise to spells of rain and showers in rather cold conditions overall. Some of the rain would be heavy and thundery and fall as snow at times over Scottish hills. GEM shows a very blustery and unsettled period over the weekend and into next week with some cold weather to be found as winds swing North for a time. There would be strong winds and rain at times alternating with a sunshine and shower mix when some of the showers could be heavy and thundery and fall as snow for a time on Scottish mountains. A broad Westerly flow ends the run later next week with milder air with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West. NAVGEM also brings deep low pressure across the UK at the weekend and out into the North sea where it becomes slow moving for several days allowing colder air to feed South over the UK with periods of rain gradually giving way to showers and sunny intervals. the showers would be heavy and thundery near the coasts especially and again could fall as snow over Northern hills. ECM shows Low pressure well in control too as we move into next week with successive Lows and fronts to the North crossing the UK with Westerly winds and bands of rain followed by showers the main events of the period. Though a little colder at times temperatures overall would not stray too far from normal. The GFS Ensembles show a sustained period of uppers that are normal or thereabouts. There is a lot of rain shown on occasion indicating a strong Westerly bias over the UK but there will be some colder incursions in the wake of Lows and troughs exiting East out of the UK. Late in the run the Jet Stream heads North raising uppers above average again and then less rain is indicated in the South. The Jet Stream continues to blow strongly over the vicinity of the UK through what's left of this week, the weekend and beyond before as indicated above there are signs it could migrate North and allow less volatile weather across the UK, especially over the South. In Summary things still look very unsettled this morning with the next few days looking the most reliably fair days shown in the output today in the South. Winds look like freshening again by the weekend with gales and heavy rain at times for all as another large depression crosses the UK. Thereafter a Westerly flow maintains very changeable weather but never overly cold though a Northerly incursion for a time early next week is shown by some output. Overall though a typically Autumnal period of weather is maintained with only isolated colder periods when a touch of frost could develop should skies be allowed to clear overnight. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Latest from Gibby All models show the St Jude's storm now long gone away to the NE. A rather chilly and showery NW flow will affect the UK tonight and tomorrow with the majority of the showers towards the North and West. pressure will be rising steadily and a ridge crossing East through Wednesday will kill off the showers and give a drier interlude for most. However, a cold front moving in from theWest will bring increasing cloud, wind and rain in from the Atlantic reaching all parts by Wednesday night. Thursday will be a benign sort of day in the South with a lot of dry weather and just the odd shower. The North could see a greater chance of rain and by Friday the weather begins to slide downhill again a new deep Low pressure centre to the West of Ireland moving across the UK over the start of the weekend with spells of heavy rain and showers for all. All through this week the temperatures will never be far away from the seasonal average but it will feel rather chillier than of late. GFS then takes us through Week 2 with a strong Westerly flow maintained for much of the period though with short quieter spells in the South. This would continue to mean spells of rain at times but with some drier and less windy interludes in the South. The temperatures will remain well up to average given winds remain from a Westerly source. Late in the run a major pressure build from the South over the Atlantic brings dry weather for all with mostly dry weather with some clear skies overnight and some frost and fog patches possible. UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure clearing slowly away to the East with a strong and windy NW flow over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain continuing. GEM tonight shows deep Low pressure almost continually settled to the North of Scotland with strong Westerly winds, spells of rain and average temperatures for all of the UK with some heavy rain in places at times. NAVGEM looks like keeping unsettled weather going indefinately over the UK as the bandwagon of Low pressure areas clear to the East and approach from the West and NW beyond the term of the run. ECM too shows a very unsettled and windy weekend to come with little sign of any significant improvements thereafter. It will feel quite cold for a time as winds switch Northerly briefly but a weak transient ridge moving East kills the Northerly flow quickly and re-opens the gates to the West but in a much more medramatic fashion in quite mild conditions. The GFS Ensembles show a very sine wave style pattern over the two weeks as successive air mass changes takes place over the UK behind frontal systems frequently steaming in from the West. The temperature extremes are never particularly marked but there will be some cold and mild feeling days in among the always rather breezy Westerly flow. The operational run described above is a marked outlier of the cold variety at the end of the run. The Jet Stream shows the flow streaming across the Atlantic and the Uk for the reliable future before it shows signs of moving further North tonight late in the predictive period. In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying unsettled and windy for the reliable future. there are some potentially stormy periods especially again towards this weekend. In contrast there is also some windows of drier weather, especially in the South and later in the run as signs of a Northward moving Jet Stream and Low pressure areas on a much more Northerly trajectory are shown. With High pressure then to the South and Low to the North this would once again mean temperatures above average as we move into November. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Storm death toll rises to 13 in Europe The death toll from a severe storm that ripped across Britain and onto mainland Europe has risen to 13, with the UK and Germany hit the hardest. Hurricane-force gusts have knocked down trees, flooded low areas, left hundreds of thousands without power and snarled transportation networks across the region. UK officials reported at least five deaths. Four people were killed on Monday in Germany, adding to two deaths at sea off the German coast Sunday. Danish media says one man was killed by a flying brick just north of Copenhagen, and Amsterdam police said a woman there was killed by a falling tree. A major storm with hurricane-force gusts lashed southern Britain, the Netherlands, France and Germany on Monday, knocking down trees, flooding low areas and causing travel chaos. Seven deaths were reported. Weather forecasters say it was one of the worst storms to hit Britain in years. Gusts of 160 kph were reported on the Isle of Wight in southern England, while gusts up to 80 mph hit the UK mainland.UK Power Networks officials said up to 270,000 homes were without power. Flood alerts were issued for many parts of southern England and emergency officials said hundreds of trees were knocked down by gusts. London's Heathrow Airport, Europe's busiest, cancelled at least 130 flights and express trains between central London and Gatwick and Stansted airports were suspended. Huge waves prompted the major English port of Dover to close, cutting off ferry services to France. A nuclear power station in Kent, southern England, automatically shut its two reactors after storm debris reduced its incoming power supply. Officials at the Dungeness B plant said the reactors had shut down safely and would be brought back online once power was restored. In central London, a huge building crane near the prime minister's office crumpled in the gusts. Thousands of homes in northwestern France also lost electricity, while in the Netherlands several rail lines shut down, airport delays were reported. Dutch citizens were warned against riding their bicycles - a favoured form of transportation - because of the high winds, and Amsterdam's central railway station was shut down by storm damage. http://www.smh.com.au/world/storm-death-toll-rises-to-13-in-europe-20131028-2wbti.html

ECM has the low at 975mb now

But it will be November on Friday and the countdown to winter will be well underway

Based on this months update you would be right in saying not really good news for the coldies, based on the update something like winter 11 / 12 springs to mind mostly mild with limited cold snaps

GFS doesn't look as bad as this mornings runs Compared to the 00z UKMO still going for 980mb

With the met office expecting a mild November some places may not see any frosts to at least December http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

Looks like the met office are going for a mild winter, though as you would expect even in milder winters occasional cold spells can't be ruled out For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

October update issued November to January Temperature There is a strong signal in the forecast for above-average November-mean temperatures. For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). There are currently no significant sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific and therefore neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevail. In this respect computer models favour a continuation of neutral conditions during the coming months, leaving the influence of this as a forcing factor weak and not expected to contribute predictive value for conditions across Europe during the next three months. Across a large part of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain largely above average, whilst further north Arctic sea ice has recently reached its annual minimum extent. Whilst well below the climatological average, this minimum extent was not as low as 2012’s record minimum. The greatest deficit relative to average appears to be over the northern Barents and Kara Seas. Whilst this may play some part in determining late autumn and early wintertime conditions over northern Europe, the predictive associations are not yet entirely clear. Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation. Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions. These influences are reflected in the forecast in Figure T2, which shows a strong signal for milder-than-average conditions in November. In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf Precipitation Indications are that precipitation in November is more likely to be above average than below average. For November-December-January as a whole the signal for precipitation is similar to climatology, with only a slightly higher probability of above-average than below-average rainfall. The probability that UK precipitation for November-December-January will fall into the driest of our five categories is close to 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is approximately 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). At this time of the year, climatologically speaking, Atlantic depressions are typically more intense, affect Britain more frequently and often carry large amounts of moisture making the late autumn and early winter one of the stormier and wetter parts of the year. As discussed in the temperature section, one atmospheric driver with known influence on predictability over northwestern Europe at this time of year is in a phase conducive to positive North Atlantic Oscillation. This typically favours wetter-than-average conditions, as well as an increased risk of windier periods or storms and heavy rainfall, over northwestern Europe during the late autumn and early winter. Later in this forecast period computer models show large spread, and hence increased uncertainty, concerning likely dominant synoptic types. Forecast curves for November show a strong signal for wetter-than-average conditions. With computer models signalling westerly or southwesterly flow for November as a whole, it is thought more likely than not that many northern and western parts of Britain would be wetter than in November 2012. For November-December-January as a whole the forecast favours above-average rainfall over below-average, with the probability of very wet conditions enhanced, and that for very dry conditions reduced, with respect to climatology. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/q/A3_plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

The BBC are reporting that 580,000 lost power during the storm 310,000 now have power again 270,000 homes are without power this afternoon

Monthly Outlook Summary A wild start, and remaining unsettled. With all eyes turning, understandably, to the approaching severe storm you will be forgiven for forgetting the weather we have been experiencing over the last few days. We have had a real mixed bag, in true autumn style. It has been noticeably mild - much warmer than we would expect for this time of year - peaking at 19.6C at Gravesend in Kent on Friday 25th October. It has also been wet; over 30mm of rain falling over the UK in all bar one day last week. All in all a fairly wet but mild week. Monday 28 October—Sunday 10 November Some like it windy The headline of the coming week is, without doubt, the severe storm expected to hit the British Isles through Sunday evening and into Monday morning. This rapidly deepening area of low pressure is expected to bring heavy rainfall to large swathes of England and Wales along with potentially damaging winds perhaps exceeding 80mph at times. Beyond Monday conditions, although remaining changeable, look like they should calm down from the stormy start to the week. Expect both showers and longer spells of rain during the week mixed with brighter periods in-between frontal systems. Temperatures will drop off slightly from what we have been basking in - closer to what we would expect for this time of year. Monday 4 November—Sunday 17 November Make sure your umbrella is in full working order. Further into the forecast period the main message stays the same; keep your brolly close to hand! At this stage the weather looks like giving us a typical autumnal pattern with plenty of wet and windy weather on the cards. Southern and Western parts look likely to see the worst of the rain with above average rainfall amounts expected here. The only element that is failing to recognise that it is autumn is the temperature which looks set to remain above what we would be expecting for this time of year, frosts during this time will be fairly unlikely. Monday 18 November—Sunday 1 December A little less unsettled in the south For the last few weeks there has been a consistent signal in the extended outlook of the forecast that pressure will gradually rise in southern regions of the UK. This should alleviate the worst of the rain and wind in this area and increasingly push Atlantic frontal systems to northern regions. Temperatures through this period will be a little above the seasonal norm meaning that there is a fairly low risk of overnight frosts during this period. Next week The weather remains very unsettled at the moment, and it looks like this will continue into the new month. But will bonfire night be a damp squib? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Nov 2013 to Tuesday 26 Nov 2013: Early November's mostly unsettled conditions are thought likely to persist across northern and western regions. As such rainfall amounts here are more likely than not to be above average and conditions may also be quite windy at times. Further south and east rainfall accumulations are considered likely to be nearer average, implying slightly more changeable conditions with drier, brighter periods interspersed with more unsettled bouts of weather. Taking the country as a whole, temperatures during this period are more likely than not to be near, or perhaps above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of overnight frost than can usually be expected at this time of year. Updated: 1201 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Nov 2013 to Monday 11 Nov 2013: Stay unsettled this weekend with showers or longer spells of rain sweeping northwards, with heavy and squally showers following. Remaining windy with a risk of gales and a chance of severe gales on some coasts. Unsettled and often windy weather persisting thereafter, with the risk of gales continuing in the north and west. Showers over Scottish mountains may then turn wintry at times. Perhaps also turning a little colder than of late early next week. Otherwise, temperatures generally staying around average for early November. This will, of course, be tempered by the wind and unsettled feel to the weather and therefore there is expected to be less frost than is normal for early November. Later in the period, there are indications that southern or southeastern areas may turn less unsettled. Updated: 1159 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html