Summer Sun

The swear filter keeps turning bastar-di to laminate floori

A few more longer range models Rainfall looks fairly close to average Temperature Looks mostly average except Scotland and Northern Ireland which is below normal at this stage Norwegian Met Office Predicted temperature deviations from the period of October 2012 to December 2012 Temperature outlook for the period October to December 2012 are about 1°C above normal for the northern part of Nordland, Troms and Finnmark. For the rest of Nordland, Trøndelag and the northern most part of both Western and Eastern, suggests forecasted an average of 0.5-1°C above normal. For the southern part of the country are notified at approximately 0.5°C over. Normal as we compare with the average temperature for the period 1961-1990. This period was somewhat cooler than the past few decades have been. The Beijing Climate Center is going for a warmer than normal winter But its also showing it to be wetter than normal in some areas

Has GP (Stewart Rampling) actually said this? Snow on the way… but not till Christmas A SNOWY sub-zero Christmas has been predicted for Ireland, as sun worshippers look 
forward to more sunshine this weekend. Temperatures are set to reach 20C today, but Netweather forecaster Stewart Rampling has said snow, ice and sub-zero 
temperatures are all on the way this December. He forecasted chilly spells in October due to high pressure drawing cold polar air and cutting off warm westerly winds – the pattern which can cause winter freezes. Netweather also predicts October’s rainfall will be down by close to 30 per cent. However, November will be up to 20 per cent wetter for most of the country. “November’s rainfall is forecast to be above average for the south,†said Rampling. Meanwhile, suggestions that parts of the country would be hit by 100kph winds today were rejected by weather experts Met Eireann. Met Eireann meteorologist John Eagleton said yesterday: “There is no indication at the moment of gale force winds tomorrow.†The top Irish forecaster also said people can look forward sunshine and dry weather this Saturday, with temperatures in the high teens. http://thestar.ie/star/snow-on-the-way-but-not-till-christmas/

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Sep 2012 to Saturday 13 Oct 2012: Indications are that the end of September and the beginning of October are likely to be characterised by mainly unsettled conditions across much of the UK, with outbreaks of rain affecting many parts. This rain is likely to be heaviest and most persistent across western areas of the UK, with the east and southeast most favoured to see some drier, brighter interludes. Winds may also be strong at times, particularly across the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be below or well below average, especially by day. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Sep 2012 to Friday 28 Sep 2012: Largely unsettled throughout. At first, generally showery, then the latter part of next week will see some longer outbreaks of occasionally heavy rain, particularly for northern and central parts of the UK. Strong winds at times, especially in the northwest. The south should see the best of the drier conditions. Feeling cool in wind and rain, but temperatures close to normal in sunny spells. Next weekend turning generally unsettled and rather cold, with showers of longer spells of rain for most parts, and only brief drier interludes. Generally breezy, and temperatures widely below average, though closer to normal in the southeast. Thereafter, a generally cool and unsettled spell with showers or longer spells of rain. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

No CFS V1 is going for an average winter overall Rainfall is below average for parts of Scotland and average else where CFS V2 is going for a warm winter for much of Europe including the parts of the UK CFS V2 is also going for a wetter than average winter So in summary CFS V1 is going for an average winter overall both temperature and rainfall wise the exception been Scotland which is below average for rainfall CFS V2 is going for a mild and slightly wetter than average winter from the midlands south and average temperatures, the north has average temperatures and slightly wetter than average in places

Rain in north Breezy & cool http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120914

These are the maxes GFS is showing for Tuesday night / Early Wednesday

Latest Met Office long range charts suggest a 60% chance of below average temps this winter and a 20% chance of above normal Rainfall looks fairly average nation wide, only Northwest Scotland and Northern Ireland are shown to be below normal (40% chance) Chances of near normal sea level pressure is 40% below normal is 20%

Rain across Italy Strong French Mistral Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 12th September 2012 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Unsettled western Europe Today Rain spreads down across England. Lots of heavy showers are forecast across France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark into western and southern parts of Germany. Eastern Germany may remain fair and dry for most of the day. Windy but dry across southern France. Cold across Norway today with sunny spells. Sunny too across Sweden. An area of heavy rain and heavy showers are expected from Finland into the Baltic States through Poland, Austria into northern Italy and the Alps. Dry across most of Russia, Belarus into the Ukraine, the Czech Republic, the former Yugoslavia, Hungary, Greece, Romania and Turkey. Lots of warm sunshine to com across Italy westward into Corsica, Sardinia, Spain and Portugal. A strong mistral will be blowing across southern France Thursday Mainly dry with sunny spells across England today. Rain and showers are forecast across France. Mainly dry across Belgium and The Netherlands with showers across Denmark and across western and southern Germany. Eastern Germany looks fair and dry. Cloudy with rain across France but dry in the far south with that strong mistral continuing. An area of rain will stretch from the Baltic States into Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, the former Yugoslavia intoItaly. Rain to come across Corsica and Sardinia with showers around the Balearics. Cloudy but dry across Finland with sunny skies across Norway and Sweden but quite chilly. Lots of dry, sunny weather to come across Russia, the Ukraine, Romania into Bulgaria and Turkey with a risk of a few sharp showers across Greece. Lots of fine, sunny weather is expected across Spain and Portugal. http://www.weatheron...EuropeanSummary

The live webcam for Ben Nevis is now working, you can't see much at the moment due to low cloud

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Sep 2012 to Thursday 11 Oct 2012: Indications are that the end of September and the beginning of October are likely to be characterised by mainly unsettled conditions across much of the UK, with outbreaks of rain affecting many parts. This rain is likely to be heaviest and most persistent across western areas of the UK, with the east most favoured to see some drier, brighter interludes. Winds may also be strong at times, particularly across the north and west. Temperatures, on the whole are likely to be close to or slightly above average. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Sep 2012 to Wednesday 26 Sep 2012: A good deal of dry weather is likely in the southeast of the UK on Monday with some sunshine and daytime temperatures a little above average. However chilly nights give the risk of some overnight fog. Northwestern parts will start windy, with large amounts of cloud giving outbreaks of sometimes heavy rain and temperatures a little below average. Bands of rain or showers are likely to spread erratically southeast from Tuesday, bringing unsettled conditions across all parts by the middle of next week. Unsettled and breezy conditions look likely to predominate in all areas thereafter, with temperatures expected to be close to or just below the seasonal average. The south and southeast is likely to see the best of any drier, brighter spells. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

The Met Office contingency planners forecast now covers the period of September to November Temperature Summary The balance of probabilities suggests that September will be slightly warmer than average whilst for the period September-October-November UK-averaged temperatures will be near the 1981-2010 climate mean. The probability that UK-mean temperature for the September-October-November period will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Detailed outlook Development of weak to moderate El Niño conditions is currently underway in the equatorial Pacific, although the atmospheric conditions do not yet display the typical characteristics of such an event. Therefore no clear influence on the likely weather pattern over Europe can be anticipated at this stage. It is noteworthy that Arctic sea ice coverage has now reached exceptionally low values and is already approaching the record low amount observed in 2007. Research is currently in progress to ascertain how this might influence the weather patterns around the UK. Computer models show reasonable consistency in the overall dominance of higher-than-normal pressure across the UK (and northern Europe) in September; this usually favors above normal temperatures. Although the skill of long-range forecasting models for this time of year is relatively limited, the current sea surface temperature pattern in the eastern Atlantic would normally favor a bias towards such a blocked pattern. For September-October-November as a whole, the models tend towards slightly higher than average pressure over northern Europe, with the seasonal-mean temperature likely to be near average. Autumn is a transitional time of year in which a given circulation pattern can result in very different temperature outcomes between the beginning and end of the season. For example, a settled weather pattern in September usually results in above normal temperatures whilst a similar pattern in November would usually yield colder-than average conditions. Therefore, although near-average temperatures are favored over the season as a whole, this does not exclude spells of unusually warm or cold weather. Shorter-period forecasts should therefore be monitored on a regular basis for additional details. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/k/s/A3-plots-temp-SON.pdf Rainfall Summary For UK averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities weakly favor below normal values during September. For the period September - October - November as a whole the forecast favors a slightly higher than usual risk of above average rainfall, whilst the risk of dry conditions remains around climatological levels. The probability that UK rainfall for September - October - November will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories in around 25% (the 19812010 probability for each of these categories is 20%). Detailed Outlook Computer models show reasonable consistency in the overall dominance of higher than normal pressure across the UK in September, which normally favors drier than average conditions. However, in the forecast there is a large range of possible outcomes (pink points on the left hand panel of figure P2). Following a predominantly unsettled end to August, there are already significant uncertainties in the rainfall pattern going into September. Although the September - October - November mean pressure patterns slightly favor higher than normal pressure over northern Europe, the forecast suggests some periods of unsettled weather. If these occur in October they can produce heavy rain because the surrounding ocean is still warm, potentially off setting a drier than average September. On balance there is a slightly enhanced risk of wetter than average conditions for the whole 3month period the probability of a drier than average season for the UK as a whole is at climatological levels. Regional variations in forecast rainfall relative to long term averages cannot be specified. Therefore, shorter period forecasts should be monitored on a regular basis for additional http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/e/A3-plots-precip-SON.pdf

Summer Heatwaves Could Kill 11,000 A Year Summer heatwaves could kill 11,000 people a year in Britain by the 2080s, a new report has warned. The Health Protection Agency says climate change is likely to raise average temperatures by between two and five degrees, with "significant looming health challenges" for the nation. Heat-related deaths are expected to soar from their present level of 2,000 a year. Dr Sotiris Vardoulakis of the HPA said rising temperatures are a direct threat to patients with lung and heart disease, but an increase in accidents and suicides during heatwaves will add to the death toll. "Heat-related mortality will increase steeply," he said. And there's a grim warning for hayfever sufferers that the high pollen counts seen this year over a prolonged period could become the norm. In future, grass is expected to begin flowering far earlier in the year, releasing a more potent allergenic form of pollen. And ragweed, a plant native to the United States, is likely to become established in southern Britain. Professor Roy Kennedy of the National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit said the plant can shed millions of pollen grains and trigger hayfever or even asthma in people who have never suffered before. "If you have got more powerful pollen and new allergens coming in from pollen like ragweed you are potentially going to end up with more people needing hospital admission," he told Sky News. Warmer summers are also likely to allow disease carrying mosquitoes to breed in Britain, with malaria spreading as far north as Manchester. HPA chairman Dr David Heymann said: "This report will provide all government departments with the information they need to properly prioritise areas for future work and protect the UK public from the significant looming health challenges that climate change presents." http://news.sky.com/story/983419/summer-heatwaves-could-kill-11000-a-year

Correct however if next months update goes for the same then those wanting a cold winter could have something to worry about

Well its that time of year again when long range models start to hint at what may be in store for winter A tweet from Matt Hugo today https://twitter.com/...124904893161472 The CFS seasonal outlooks also show it been average Rainfall is also shown to be average for just about all Now for a look at the individual months December Rainfall and Temperature January Rainfall and Temperature February Rainfall and Temperature At this stage an average winter is shown on CFS with February been the wettest month of the lot

I would be happy with that I would take a mild and wet winter any day over cold and snowy one And speaking of mild and wet that leads me to tonight's ECM run Warm and dry first, warm and wet later Ends cooler with a very deep depression near the Azores

The beeb's 18:30 BBC 1 forecast has no word of snow for the mountains tomorrow so its a case of wait and see

The Ben Nevis weather site is showing snow on Tuesday Ben Nevis is shown to have snow at highest of about 2,700ft http://www.bennevisw....uk/weather.asp Last season was a late starter for the skiers if I remember correctly, so here's hoping it will be better this year for them

Here are the year on year stats for Darlington January to August 2011 417mm of rain fell in that period January to August 2012 In the same period this year 446mm of rain has fallen Now taking at look at what the yearly rainfall average is based on the 1981 to 2010 stats The average from January to August is 405.8mm we are currently at 446mm so we are just above the average The yearly average is 651.1mm so another 205.1mm of rain is need in the final 3 and a bit months to reach the average We have now gone 11 days without any rainfall though rain is due overnight

80MPH GALES TO HIT BRITAIN GALES of up to 80mph will batter Britain this week as a perfect storm threatens to sweep across the country. Tropical storm Leslie will meet Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic in the next 48 hours and head north to sweep away our glorious Indian Summer. Yesterday was the hottest September day in Britain for six years, peaking at 85F (29C), warmer than Mexico City and parts of Greece. After the wettest summer for 100 years it was hoped we might at last enjoy a spell of fine weather. But Met Office forecaster Dave Britton warned this week will be “all changeâ€. http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/345092/80mph-gales-to-hit-Britain

Its not too early but I'm not convinced it will snow the temps look too high during tomorrow

A lovely warm end to ECM tonight Could see some thunder and lots of humid air around with the last chart

I think average at best describes Autumn 2012 according to CFS for rain fall At this stage I can't see the above been true for the south October November Now to the temperature Again at this stage I can't see the below been true for the south Average October And average again for November