Summer Sun

Our council got extra stocks in last winter in the end we had one week of cold snowy weather so the extra stock wasn't needed After 2010 there all playing safe now and getting extra stock in

Yellow rain alerts Issued at: 1233 on Thu 20 Sep 2012 Valid from: 0000 on Sun 23 Sep 2012 Valid to: 2359 on Sun 23 Sep 2012 There is a risk that wet and windy weather will spread north from the Bay of Biscay on Sunday to some southern areas. However there is a large amount of uncertainty at present such that it is possible that the rain may not reach our shores at all. The public should be aware of this risk and keep up to date with our forecasts as we approach the weekend Wales South West England London & South East England Issued at: 1258 on Thu 20 Sep 2012 Valid from: 0005 on Mon 24 Sep 2012 Valid to: 2359 on Mon 24 Sep 2012 There is a risk that wet and windy weather will continue to spread northeast on Monday. However there is a large amount of uncertainty at present. The public should be aware of this risk and keep up to date with our forecasts. North East England Yorkshire & Humber East Midlands East of England South West England London & South East England http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

It could things could go either way it could intensify or it could go the way of UKMO and end up been nothing other than a wet day for some the next 48 hours will be crucial

A closer look at the models tonight shows that there is a big disagreement at just 96h GFS and UKMO both go for pressure as low as 985mb But then when we look at UKMO we have a different option with pressure some 20mb higher at 1005mb Taking a look at other models we see them taking the same route as UKMO GEM This mornings NOGAPS also took the same route as tonight's UKMO (this will update to the 12z automatically shortly) The next 48 hours should see things become more clear as to which way things will go if things take UKMO's path then we would see nothing more than a normal Autumn day if it went the way of GFS then some areas would see some fairly strong winds and rain

Tonight's UKMO has pressure much higher than GFS and ECM tonight ECM

Monday continues to look like been the windiest day of the week but nothing more than we are use to Into Tuesday and things begin to settled down for all but the far south west And that sets up the rest of the week with high pressure slowly building So unsettled at first, then high pressure builds later to the south with Scotland remaining unsettled

A wet morning with moderate light rain has given way to a cloudy and dry start to the afternoon Temp - 14.4°C Pressure - 1013.8hPa

Monday sees the low pressure at its deepest this morning It is also shown to be the windiest day As the day moves on the winds ease for most of inland areas of the UK though coastal areas remain windy

GFS 06z has the center of the low pressure further south this morning, the wind doesn't look like been any concern its the rain which could be Into Wednesday pressure begins to rise

No

LEAVES FALLING? NO, THAT'S SNOW IT’S only September and the leaves have hardly started to fall but you might want to get the scarf and wellies out of the cupboard – the first snowflakes of winter have settled. As temperatures dipped to near freezing, the heavens opened over the Cairngorms in Scotland, leaving a wintry carpet for miles. Across most of the UK, this week has brought chilly mornings and bracing winds with temperatures sinking. A low of 1C (34F) was recorded at RAF Benson in Oxfordshire yesterday, while Exeter and Bournemouth sank to 3C. Forecasters said the rest of the week will be chilly with the chance of bracing winds and scattered showers. But by the weekend, it is set to all change again with some warmer and drier weather. Met Office forecaster Charlie Powell said: “The weekend is looking pretty decent with 20C (68F) possible on Saturday.†Jonathan Powell of Vantage Weather Services added: “It is going to be a chilly rest of the week, with some heavy morning dew although we might escape the frosts. By the weekend it is going to be milder and looking good from Saturday onwards.†Wildlife experts reckon that autumn will arrive late this year with leaves and berries still stubbornly refusing to change with the season. The wet summer and recent warm spell have stopped trees shedding their leaves. The Woodland Trust’s Nature’s Calendar project has received fewer sightings of ripe blackthorn, bramble and elderberries so far this year compared to last. Sightings of ripe brambles and blackthorn are 80 per cent down on this time last year. Silver birch trees also appear to be turning later, with 35 reports of leaves beginning to change colour compared to 313 this time last year. Project manager Dr Kate Lewthwaite said: “We would expect fruiting to be late because it is intrinsically tied in with flowering. That was late because we had a washout spring which was much cooler than normal, and how were pollinating insects going to get out there? http://www.express.c...-No-that-s-snow

Yes I agree much more popular

Again ECM's ensemble run has the depression less deep for next Tuesday 980mb over Northern Scotland But the ensemble run has it at 1000mb And its the same for Wednesday 980mb this time centered over Ireland And again the ensemble run has pressure much higher at 1000mb

Well its the 19th of September at 21:44 and we have 102 users viewing this thread and 547 reply's its certainly proving popular

ECM's ensemble is out and its more in line with UKMO so at this stage its nothing more than a wet and breezy day for most of England and wales the rain would be more of a concern than the wind

Yes the rainfall would be a big concern there could even be flooding in some areas weather-online are going for flooding in southern and eastern parts of England

So tonight all of the models agree of an unsettled Tuesday now the question is will it be nothing more than a wet and breezy day or like ECM shows tonight the first Major storm of Autumn 2012 All the runs are at 144h GFS UKMO ECM has the depression the deepest this mornings ensemble run wasn't so deep, 00z ensemble on the right this will update to the 12z run later tonight NOGAPS goes half way between GFS and UKMO, GEM on the right has the worst of the storm further north

This was ECM's run this morning And this was its ensemble run What ECM has tonight is one hell of a change in 12 hours or so from nothing more than a wet and breezy day this morning to a Major storm tonight the ensemble run later on will be interesting

Calmer by Thursday and Friday

All models go for an unsettled Tuesday the question is which will be right GFS UKMO

Record minimum for Arctic sea ice Arctic sea ice has reached its minimum extent for the year, setting a record for the lowest summer cover since satellite data collection began. The 2012 extent has fallen to 3.41 million sq km (1.32 million sq mi) - 50% lower than the 1979-2000 average. Arctic sea ice has long been regarded as a sensitive indicator of changes in the climate. Scientists who have been analyzing the startling melt think it is part of a fundamental change. "We are now in uncharted territory," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Center (NSIDC) in Colorado, US. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur." This year's minimum caps a summer of low ice extents in the Arctic. On 26 August, sea ice extent fell to 4.10 million sq km (1.58 million sq mi), breaking the previous record low set on 18 September 2007 of 4.17 million sq km (1.61 million sq mi). On 4 September, it fell below four million sq km (1.54 million sq mi), another first in the 33-year satellite record. "The strong late season decline is indicative of how thin the ice cover is," said NSIDC scientist Walt Meier. "Ice has to be quite thin to continue melting away as the sun goes down and Fall approaches." Scientists say they are observing fundamental changes in sea ice cover. The Arctic used to be dominated by multiyear ice, or ice that survived through several years. Recently, the region is characterised by seasonal ice cover and large areas are now prone to completely melt away in summer. The sea ice extent is defined as the total area covered by at least 15% of ice, and varies from year to year because of changeable weather. However, ice extent has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past 30 years. A 2011 study published in Nature journal, used proxies such as ice cores and lake sediments to reconstruct sea ice extent in the Arctic over the last 1,450 years. The results suggest the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice may be unprecedented over this period. Dr Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist with the NSIDC, is currently aboard a Greenpeace ship in Svalbard, Norway, having just returned from a research expedition to assess the region's record melt. She said the new record suggested the Arctic "may have entered a new climate era, where a combination of thinner ice together with warmer air and ocean temperatures result in more ice loss each summer". She continued: "The loss of summer sea ice has led to unusual warming of the Arctic atmosphere, that in turn impacts weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, that can result in persistent extreme weather such as droughts, heat waves and flooding." If the current melting trend during summer months continues, there will be opportunities as well as challenges. Some ships have already been cutting their journey times by sailing a previously impassable route north of Russia. Oil, gas and mining firms are all planning to exploit rich resources thought to be held by the Arctic, although they are strongly opposed by environment campaigners. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19652329

Weatherbell appear to be going for a slightly milder than normal Autumn for the UK

Any farmers on here? If so remember this And for those who can't remember or didn't see that clip

Changing weather Heavy rain ahead http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120918

A chilly night tonight down to 8.7°C now with clear sky and no wind