Gordon Webb

probably about 8:30pm

yep looking very heavy in places and as for thunderstorms discreet showers might have more chance than that persistant / static band of rain and that's what it is unless it's a southern england shower

seems to be a lot of rain but little in the way of thunder at the moment most of the rain in southern england not appearing to be going very far very fast and there's a little blob heading in my direction

doesn't look like it lasted

depends what forecast you put your faith in Nick F has his focus for the worst in a line from E - W from northern home counties across central southern / south midlands to south wales but is incertain how many will develop metcheck has there focus over the higher ground notably the Mendips, North Downs, Chilterns, Exmoor, Dartmoor and Bodmin bbc has warnings out for a few areas but with focus for sw midlands se wales and west country but with the proviso that most will probably miss them and also ones overnight travelling East - West along southern england which is what i think your referring to currently a line of showers over m4 corridor or maybe just north or south of it not sure where they going to go or do bbc i think has them going W/NW heading into midlands then eventually wales according to latest News 24 forecast , probably change again by 1.30pm since there only mention of sunshine this afternoon over southern parts was for the SE currently overcast where i am but showers se of me may encroach so take a pick and see what comes off is my view

met office has updated warnings but still a lot of uncertainty their focus for slow moving intense showers should they occur is southwest midlands se wales and the west country , of course i've got some fairly heavy rain heading my way anyway and I'm not convinced how much sunshine I'll be seeing

all chance of thunder is now gone as Carol K used the Dreaded Humdingers in the BBC forecast so that has killed that stone dead lol

yep increased chance for thunder in the warning area which is essentially southern england and beeb put particular focus on SW england

Warnings have been updated

apart from one rumble they missed me if only the postman with bills was just as kind

through the evening was the projected forecast

when the beeb showed all that graphics this morning showing storms to the south of brum at 4pm then moving NW to the NW of brum by 6pm then moving into NW england didn't really take it seriously got to give them and the euro4 model some credit as i dismissed it completely

the news 24 forecasts indicates no

bbc news 24 forecast have this lot of showers just the NW of birmingham at 6pm moving NW looks like going to forecast

shower / storm pass just to my west and one or 2 to my se but the ones to my south look like missing me one small rumble so far cannot tell got headphones with deep space nne blaring through

this model also shows nothing for tomorrow , today was always going to be the more active day out of the 2 anyway

and here I though we were only having isolated to scattered or does this come under that umbrellla

that might be overdoing it a little but we'll wait and see if anything develops

I'll sum this up purely for my own peace of mind so to start with when it'll be it's most unstable for me this aftwrnoon the chances for a storm are small and later on the chances are higher but further North of my location which should please supacell if it comes to pass going back to my west wing weekend binge and hoping the weather stays boring

bbc forecast seems to show that with a more liberal splashing of graphics which movies up to NW england this evening

well that would be a shock to the system if that came off especially after this weekend

Yep that might be an issue , storms will be isolated anyway and with good bit of cloud around might also play a part taken from www.convectieweather.co.uk Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of Wales / Midlands and/or SW England, perhaps as far east as The Wash, on Saturday morning, drifting NNW-wards. In its wake, provided there are sufficient breaks in cloud cover to allow insolation, then 800-900 Jkg-1 may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening, especially within the SLGT. It appears timing is crucial between the passage of a shortwave trough and maximum solar heating, with an earlier arrival shifting the focus for initiation farther north and probably at an earlier time. It is worth stressing that these thunderstorms are likely to be fairly isolated, with a good part of the highlighted areas likely to remain dry - had storms been expected to form more widely, then this forecast would be upgraded to MDT. 20kts DLS is marginal but may allow some organisation of any isolated thunderstorms that do develop, although the overall risk of severe weather is considered fairly low, with the main threat being from minor surface water issues from heavy downpours (given PWAT 20-25mm). Given expected CAPE and some organisation, then hail up to 2.0cm in diameter is possible from any strong cells that develop. There is also scope for further elevated convection, in a messy fashion, to either be imported or develop in-situ across Hampshire / IoW / Dorset / Devon on Saturday night, drifting NW-wards towards Wales. Once again, uncertainty exists concerning coverage and lightning frequency, otherwise there would be scope to upgrade Channel coasts to SLGT. and this for tomorrow Pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing on Sunday morning across parts of England and Wales, and like Saturday will continue to nudge towards the NW - provided once again that sufficient diurnal heating can develop, then there is scope for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening. Once again forecast profiles are not particularly conducive to organised convection, and hence the risk of severe weather is fairly low, with the main risk being flash flooding from heavy downpours and local incidences of hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms will be quite isolated given fairly dry air in the mid and upper levels, and so while we have issued a broad SLGT given the potential for a given shower to produce lightning being quite high, aerial coverage will probably remain quite low. Once again there is the potential for isolated elevated convection to be imported into southern coastal counties during Sunday night.

by looking at all forecasts that I have seen they all seem to be singing from a similar hymn sheet that storms are going to be fairly hit and miss and most seeing an essentially dry day

this is what this thread should be about unbiased and not favoring one type of weather over another looks like the warm weather is coming as forecast even though the threat of rain / showers seem more limited to the south at least for the moment which is just as well as got outdoor plans this weekend be back next week best wishes to all

wonder if that bit about swapping cold and wet and warm and wet was aimed in my direction no matter , looking at the temps charts there's nothing spectacular there maybe 1 or 2 degrees more for some than what we had a fortnight ago hardly going to set the planet alight is it of course will be pleasant enough if you don't get any showers and have sunshine , know a lot will see it as a glass half full scenario I'll prefer to wait and see and will sse it as half empty Won't' be on forum much for next few days so those who like only rosey forecasts can breath a sigh of relief and I hope your not cursing a late change in the weather by the weekend keep well everybody whether rain or shine or hot or cold or somewhere inbetween