Gordon Webb

a lot of the showers seem to be skirting around me , wont count my good fortune yet

thunder seems quite limited apart from east anglia where there's more strikes than french union workers

cant speak for the charts but the BBC graphics didnt show anything for what that is worth

i was about to ask if those storms had missed Norwich then saw the radar and got my answer

I saw the BBC news forecast at 1.30pm and they had potentionally heavy rain in se tomorrow afternoon perhaps that was it that caught your attention

only consolation for me looking at this is it all looks just North of me (grasping for straws)

Yep surprised at that as thar rain to the south doesn't seem too far away

suspect this line of showers will be the one that when it gets to that convergeance zone will go barmy after it passes through my location of course edit - please ignore reads a lot like an earlier post

wonder if this is the line of showers that will get going this afternoon as if moves more into the area nick marked as an area of convergence and focus for storms was reading another foum earlier where they gave special attenjtion to the norwich area as a place today where a series of fairly aggressive storms were to be had

according to radar something started over East Anglia way couple of showers / storms unless it's false but seems rather detailed surprised nobody mentioned it already

latest news 24 from bbc has heaviest downpours at 3 or 4pm north midlands moving North and even though i don't like repeating myself even though i do quite often it seems this ties in with the area of focus and convergence that nick mention in his forecast and the bbc graphics are far less intense than what they were yesterday where they had lightning symbols here there and everywhere still dull here

not really much in the way of sunshine here at the moment rather cloudy with showers on way from south

yep they have all areas in this warning affect from 1pm to 9pm which is stretching it a bit as the greater instability moves north with time according to GFS and this warning only states what has been forecast for two or 3 days now heavy showers / thunderstorms which not everyone will see think they're bit behind on this

at 3pm seems to tie in with convergeance zone marked by Nick so I'm hopeful the worst will actually be to my north by then I can Always hope

can I assume that orange line is the breeze convergence line where the focus for storms will be as I cannot read these maps very well

seems to be a bit of cloud and ran about already and a little further north than i would have expected and a few more showery bits further south sunshine for some might be in short supply today

so to sum up the above forecast so more mositure more cloud less heating less cape more showers less chance of lightning per shower higher dls in places showers may survive longer and have slightly higher chance to produce lightning showers moving a little faster but may allow backbuilding seems if everythnig goes right in one location you may get some T & L but there is also a few get out clauses if you don't

THU 14 APR 2016: A SLIGHT chance of thunderstorms: Broad, elongated W-E orientated upper trough, stretching from Scandinavia to eastern Atlantic, west of Biscay, will begin to split on Thursday, as upper ridging approaches from both the north and south. Nonetheless, cold mid-levels atop diurnal heating will produce another day with 300-400Jkg-1 CAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms likely to develop through the day, especially late morning through to early evening. Low-level wind convergence will once again play a key role in generation of convection, especially close to coasts. In broad terms, forecast profiles look moister than the past couple of days, with more cloud likely as a result and subsequently reducing/limiting amounts of insolation. Also, surface temperatures will be a little lower than the past day or so, and hence the slight reduction in CAPE exhibited in various models. However, with the upper trough splitting, the jet stream arm over southern France will begin to bulge northwards, serving to increase DLS to some 20-30kts. Given these conditions, it is likely that showers will be more widespread over the SLGT area than the past couple of days, but with a lower chance per shower of producing lightning. Available DLS will help organise cells to an extent, which may allow better updraft/downdraft separation for cells to last longer and produce lightning. Mean westerly flow aloft also suggests showers/storms will be slightly faster moving than past couple of days, and while this would initially reduce the rain totals (and risk of flash flooding) it also allows backbuilding to occur, and so there is still a risk of 10-15mm falling in just 1 hour. There remains a chance of a few funnels or a weak tornado close to convergence zones, especially where surface winds become backed, and the strongest cells may also produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

tomorrow is the day according to the beeb with widespread storms through wales midlands east anglia etc etc thought the beeb was in association with the met office who have scattered showers with local hail and thunder one of them is out of tune

hope your doing alright down there

yep thunder seems to be more on SE and East Anglia and BBC says more might develope in southern england next 2 to 3 hours

i get nervous just watching it wonder why i still do

yep looks heavy on radar

seems to be a few showers but not much in the way of electrical activity at the moment hope that shower just to my west doesn't turn thundery could do without that

latest news 24 forecast has heaviest showers/storms over next few hours more focused over S England M4 corridor would seem a safe bet and they seems to be w - e as some have already stated but emphasis on hit and miss so a lot will miss out