Chris K

Yes - I think it can be very misleading actually for any newcomers who aren't used to the more...'interesting' ramping posts that go on. I'm not saying its intentional but some realism needs to be injected here. Exciting times ahead? - Yes its looking likely for many with bitter cold air and also perhaps some snow lovers being satisfied. Maybe certain areas being hit harder than others but I simply couldnt judge until within a day or two when chances of any PPN become clearer. Lockdown Britain incoming? No...I'll believe it when I see it. Although then again, most of the country seems to lockdown only under 2 inches of the white stuff... Don't get me wrong - the model runs we are seeing are fantastic for March! As long as it isn't another period of grey skies I'm happy with whatever I get.

Another May 9th 2008 would be a cracker for parts of SW, S, Central England and Wales. Best lightning display I have ever seen in my 23 years of living. The storm seemed to last for ages and I'm sure it lasted for a good few hours (approx 6/7pm-11pm I think!) Purely for reference I have just found some charts of the synoptics that we experienced that evening. Since then I have waited and waited for a set up similar to this one. I apologise for any IMBYism this may cause. Courtesy of: http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/archiv_dwd.html The story I remember during the day of the 9th it being quite a muggy cloudy day. On the 12z charts on the 9th, I'm assuming this was because of the front parked over us? The warmer air was to the East coming up from the continent. Notice the feature forming in the Bay of Biscay. By evening this was when things started to get interesting. I was parked up outside the pub and remember it getting darker and darker with clouds forming right above and I'm sure even hints of circulation! Now I'm assuming this was from the fact the feature in the Bay of Biscay started slowly heading towards us. Shown on the 18z chart for the 9th. Then followed the amazing lightning display. It lasted until late evening, which I guess the next chart shows where the system eventually moved back towards France, resulting with now a warm front slowly edging back west over us. By midnight in my area it had begun to calm down, but I believe the storms were still rumbling on in parts of the midlands and Wales. The 00z for the 10th shows this if I'm reading them correctly. The 06z for the 10th shows it all coming to an end as the warm front was now over Western Wales at this time. So in conclusion, if I ever see a setup similar to this coming my way again you'll soon see the convective thread being spammed haha. Hope you have enjoyed my excitement of meteorological Spring starting and my hunt for storms gradually increasing

I actually smiled just seeing the sunset after work. A glimpse of warm colour instead of grey grey grey mmmmmmm

I think they should make a fictional horror documentary style movie on what would happen if skies were endlessly grey forever and ever and ever....

I don't know enough myself to provide you with help (I'm currently trying to see how i could switch out of project management to start a career in weather/climate related fields of work without being jobless)... But I would just like to say congratulations on your hard work to being accepted for a Masters - challenging but exciting (and hopefully rewarding) times ahead!

Its great that the standing water pools in fields around here are finally shrinking - over the past couple of days especially. Hope we don't have a washout Spring!

Yes for some, the fact it has been dry (although dull skies generally) along with no disruptive weather at the moment is a blessing.

Ordered A batch of 1000 within 1 minute of seeing that picture.

Happy birthday to me Happy birthday to me Today is quite chilly But I want it snowy. ...I'll get my coat.

Recent years perhaps that has been a trend, but can we really say that a warmer spring is more likely to lead to an unsettled Summer? Will be interesting to see if it persists but discussion for another thread perhaps..so I'll zip it. So..although this strong high pressure is slapped right over the UK on the latter frames of the this mornings ECM run, it is still looking at 7 days away. I'd imagine there will be some changes by then even if its the tilt/shape/position etc. If not that would be very good consistency...we will see! Not that I'd complain if it did verify!

It is a nice day out there. Blue skies with drifting clouds but plenty of sunshine. In all honesty I'm not really looking forward to the next week, particularly mid week onwards. I love cold weather but not a fan of grey slate skies day after day. Hopefully some surprise sunshine will burn through but we won't know that until each day. At least it looks like staying dry!! I know people get fed up of hearing it but I'm really looking forward to Spring now. If the set up is right, in short spaces of time you can get big contrasts. Excited to start living in the convective thread(and here!) to start storm watching again as well.

I'm wondering if we will end up with some form of 'half way solution' where once again GFS does go towards the ECM and UKMO, but at the same time the Euro outputs being gradually 'watered down' (may not be the best choice of words) to a less 'pronounced' cold spell/snap etc - only affecting certain areas of the UK. This is why I simply can't 'bin' a run as it can still often be used as a guide in my view.. (I realise sometimes some whacky outputs are thrown at us occasionally . All models have their weaknesses though. To me that's what it has felt like during the past week or so in the lead up to the past couple of days with some falling snow but less cold air following in. Wouldn't be the first time it seems to do this in the end...but perhaps I'm looking at this too simplistically and local to my area...

Snow has stopped here now. None settled as expected but was a nice surprise to see some falling for a short while.

Mod-heavy snow here in S Glos just North of Bristol right now. I know its due to turn to rain later.. I love watching it though from my desk

Hmm i see the yellow warning has been extended and I am now covered...just. Still, i think if any snow does fall here it will be more patchy by tonight and unlikely to settle. I will know for sure when I wake up at 6am tomorrow for work!

I think most of us now know Gavin favours High pressure. To be honest, I realise most people are hunting for the cold & snow, but at least he is showing charts and often gives at least his explanation at what is being displayed rather than the irritating one liners that add nothing to the discussion. Recently he's even talked about return to cooler conditions as he run through them rather than ignoring it. Everyone has their preferences and I have no problem with what Gavin posts, as after all it isn't all about cold and snow. If you get wound up by the smiley at the end just run past his posts. Maybe he's just happy that some settled weather is being shown? I certainly wouldn't mind some drier sunny weather right now! With lighter evenings beginning it's getting me into the "i want some warm sunshine" mood, even though I love snowy weather.

OK thanks I'll keep an eye out

Out of interest, are there any 'long range' forecasts out yet for Spring, similar to the way they are made for winter? I realise not to take them literally as details always change - was just wondering if there were certain trends showing currently and what forecasters made of them.

It does feel particularly nice out there today after having an (overall?) greyish January. Certainly for me anyway.

I think we all just need to change our perception of rain and make it wonderiously fantastic to go out and get soaked in big puddles. No chance of being disappointed then...BUT there is still time for small, but potentially positive changes for some. I won't write this event off IMBY until Sat night/Sun morning. PLUS there may be chances of snow showers next week? Kind of want Spring to hurry on in now though and for marginal snow events (& the rain) to take a hike I'll have convective showers to start, warm sunshine as main and a thundery low from Biscay stalling close to our SW for dessert cheers.

I sense an army of netweather snow activists accompanied by some motorway destroying tools descending along the M4 this weekend.

Emphasis on 'clearly clearly not to be taken literally at this range'. Interesting though and something to look out for in the models as we approach the days in question. We are privileged to receive this insight into a modified output by the professionals

What a great day in the sunshine in South Glos! How I've missed it haha. Makes me look forward to Spring even more now....but wouldn't say no to further snow opportunities before then

Sorry to hear about your friend. Here's hoping for an extra thundery 2013 for you, to remember him whilst experiencing one of the awes of nature

2 days in a row of T&L here? Wheres the No Storms Club 2013 so I can brag.