Chris K

On that chart you show there, the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary look like getting absolutely hammered from the trailing NW'erly as that Low moves away...ouch.

Of course and I agree I tend to stick with professionals to, but there is always some top quality info found on this site by posters that helps me learn more about setups like this from an educational point of view. Living alongside the Severn Estuary, I am also watching this with interest. If the track were to move further North, some very strong winds could funnel up towards the Severn Crossings, near to where I live. Interesting times, although for now I remain on the fence of how this will pan out. Previous similiarities makes me want to think N France will see the worst...but we won't really know until later on Saturday onwards really.

Well they could be refering to similar developments in the past and have this 'gut feeling' how the models may change over the next couple of days. Particularly if they have been model watching for some time and are used to how each model changes in certain scenarios towards T+0

To be honest it is not that unusual in my opinion. The forecast is uncertain on the track of the low pressure system, so even if it does end up with the worst in France, as long as there is still that potential for it to track a bit further North and affect more of the UK, the warnings will be issued. The amber warnings are to be prepared and mean just that. Doesn't mean it is a certainity, but it's good they have released these today just in case.Closer to the time when the intensity and track gradually becomes clearer, these will be updated to reflect changes - because it's very likely there will be considering it is still 3-4 days away.

Might I suggest you one of these Jane to get you through the Winter? I've already bought my 6th! CD can be bought for that optional extra experience.

Well for those in C/S counties who were hit by storms earlier this may be of interest to you posted by Ian F on twitter 10 mins ago, highlighting the fact it is very much a now-casting situation. Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather11mE'rn flank of the trough to SW is expected to develop squall line characteristics and move N to landfall roughly Dorset-Hants (like earlier) Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather10mIt's this area on E flank being watched closely at UKMO: already signs of organisation: pic.twitter.com/NsavBCF8RH

Depends how that nice batch to the SW of the UK acts as it makes landfall later tonight/early hours.

I hope so! Although i will probably be in bed by time it arrives - can't afford to be tired tomorrow :(That's if it produces anything electrical in the first place.

Yep - got laughed at by Mother Nature just now during my stroll home from the pub.

As much as it's great for your input on milder uppers SS, it would be helpful to any newcomers to the thread on details of what surface weather is likely to accompany these charts you post. With the trough to our W/SW influencing our weather for the foreseeable, the milder temps will somewhat feel tampered by any wind and rain... perhaps feeling a bit better if any sunshine peeks through, I'll give you that.

Sorry I didn't mean to sound so critical. I just didn't interpret the post as you intended. It read to me as if you were saying the chart was going to reflect the weather months in advance. You are right in saying that it isnt different to someone else posting one chart from one run showing cold patterns. Just as likely/unlikely to verify that far out.

One chart, from one run on the GFS, dated for 2 weeks away? How does this determine a pattern setup lasting the whole winter exactly? I can see why some may not like the sight of a polar vortex positioning itself over Greenland but it is autumn...

Sorry but no, I respectfully disagree you saying that quoting my post. I did nowhere state it was a problem for Gaz to post a mild CFS chart. Read what I said."That goes for whether there are more colder or milder options being shown by the way, because personally I am just interested in learning about the range of forecasting tools that are used for things such as seasonal forecasts."I don't slate anyone posting in this forum because I am keen to learn everyone's own view and take on the model outputs whilst trying to learn about them myself. I think the major problem is people not reading posts properly, taking them the wrong way or simply not reading them at all. I was only responding to someone else saying posting them is silly all together.

Actually, he has been posting winter charts since around May but had a perfectly valid reason for doing so considering it is a model. Why is it silly if he is just showing and often writing about it's output?? I realise it is highly unlikely to verify as a run shows at the time, but that's not the point of it.CreweCold is one of the few people I find that actually look for the trend from the CFS over a long period of time and actually assesses it as each month passes. Throughout the second half of this year, he has been going on about northern blocking showing up for winter as the overall trend. So for me, it is always interesting to read what he has to say on the progress of any trend. That goes for whether there are more colder or milder options being shown by the way, because personally I am just interested in learning about the range of forecasting tools that are used for things such as seasonal forecasts.Posting random one run CFS charts...yep I agree it's just eye candy at the time and pretty much pointless if taken at face value.Using the CFS to help spot trends and possible areas where any pattern might set up however...well, not expecting it to be accurate here. but it is useful to learn about how it is used and review it as each season passes.I'm not saying the CFS is some magical tool to forecast weather months in advance, but it is always worth looking at, as one of the many outputs used to look for any long range indications or trends.

Great idea as whilst we have the snow & ice across N. hemisphere thread, this one makes it easy to compare between years. I suppose an interesting point is that if a rapid expansion of snow were to commence earlier than October (this year seems to be heading that way), what would any potential effects be down the line? Perhaps all just starting earlier? Or perhaps actually affecting the chances of patterns setting up against our favour (or vice versa)? Interesting times..and will be one of the many factors to consider as winter progresses.

Same! Haha I got to be up for work at 6am coffee overload will be needed in the office I think at this rate Lightning still going to my NE in the distance now.

Haha our towns powers been knocked out. Torrential rain last 10 minutes or so calming down now. Lightning not as frequent anymore right here but can still see flashes to the East in the distance.

Stood at my patio door watching the sky light up now and again. Can only just hear the rumbles of thunder. And here comes the rain. Looks like it's about to pass overhead. Deep booming thunder now.

Certainly a nice surprise. The main electrical activity seems to be following a more N/NE track but at the same time widening.

It's coming towards the Bristol & Bath area....will the bubble be broken? I got to be up in 5.5 hours my manager is going to think I'm mad.

Was just about to go to bed until I read this thread for one final check.....

Looking interesting for some of the winter runs then, with the northern blocking possibilities as the main trend for months now I am sure many will look back come the end of winter on the CFS performance with interest, whatever the outcome.

Did it forecast this from a couple of runs or was it a trend over a longer amount of time?

Well at least Saturday and Sunday look ok with sunny spells! But Monday....