Chris K

Had a few heavy downpours today but nothing that exciting! Its too far out at the moment but next week could be interesting - the trend for low pressure to sit to our SW with mild-warm s/se air flow could promote some thundery showers. Will need to wait for high resolution though for the finer details...as I'm sure the more knowledgeable will know whether the various factors are in our favour or against us closer to the time...

Moderate hail shower just passed through. Hoping see see a couple of flashes later, depending on whether current devlopments to the East keep building in the right direction!

I've been looking forward to spending more time in this thread again...let's hope 2014 is a real convective year! Spring 2013 was quite disappointing as if I remember rightly it was overall very quiet on the convective front...(down here anyway) Anyway...we've had a couple of hefty showers here near Bristol and hopefully may see some more convective showers darting around this afternoon, as well as tomorrow!

THIS!!!!

True, but the ensembles also show quite some disagreement on just how much of the UK will see a cold plunge, if at all. At the moment, I agree with the fact a cooler NW'erly flow looks increasingly likely from mid-month, however there are a few options that I am seeing looking at today's GFS ensemble charts: Cold weather to our East and kept away into Europe courtesy of too much Azores high influence, staying milder by day, colder at night with settled weather over most of the UK - similar to what we might see this week, but a tad cooler. Glancing cold snap over the UK briefly, before getting pushed away by the Azores high leaving us in a bit of a N/S split (cooler and wetter N, drier and milder S). The further NE you are, the more likely of some wintry showers in the cold snap. Cool trough influence returning - probably cool and wet further South, perhaps some wintry stuff over hills and mountains the further North you are. Cold plunge from the North with wintry showers for many with a higher likelihood of snow the further North you are. This is due to a more mid-atlantic positioning of the High that gradually pushes North towards Greenland. The key seems to be what happens to the High pressure around the t+200 mark onwards - most options keep it more flat and pushing towards the UK, not allowing much cold to reach us. However there are some that do have a mid-Atlantic ridge which allows more substantial cold weather to push from the North. So if the High pressure stays West enough, we could see some winter weather just as Spring started to get under-way...how convenient! Still...a while off yet with too much uncertainty on the most likely outcome. Time to enjoy the Sun before I return to bathing under fluorescent light in the office for another week!

Whilst uncertainty obviously remains from mid month, I think it is great we can finally look forward to a nice spell of settled weather next week now which is beginning to approach the reliable timeframe. When was the last time we had that!? Hopefully it won't end up being a cloudy high though... BBC seem confident going by their evening weather broadcast stating warm sunshine with frosty nights for most. However hints of a cooler, unsettled second half to March are appearing in the model runs, but plenty of time to change for things to change. Something to keep an eye on for now...

Still waiting for the few frogs that usually appear in our pond. Hope so we had absolutely shed loads of frogspawn last year!! Luckily the birds didn't get them as they were all hidden under loads of water lillies.

Not all all frosty! A disappointing and thoroughly wet winter for most, but we can still get cold snaps in Spring obviously. However, I look forward to your optimistic summer chart posting as well At least there are signs of a 'not so unsettled' pattern coming up with a more NW/SE split. We just need it to make it into the reliable timeframe and not see the low pressure systems push the high away.

Had a brilliant torrential shower earlier this afternoon on my journey home from work. Absolutely hammered down with sleet and hail. I very much doubt any snow will fall here tomorrow after such a dire winter for snow prospects, but to be honest after seeing the lovely convective sky this afternoon...it is gearing me up to start the thunderstorm hunting season again now!

It is a shame some will believe the garbage they print. The express has clearly been making terrible long range weather predictions for a long long time, wheras in my view the Met Office have done very well this winter. It was always stated that their 3 month contingency forecasts are experimental and should not be taken as a forecast. I remember Ian F often giving us insights to what the models they use were showing for up to 2 weeks ahead. Generally they were spot on with the trends I thought... Shame they can't openly argue this point on a news report or something to get it through some thick skulls in this country *cough* Daily Express headquarters *cough*

Blimey....I know Porthleven quite well and I'm staying just up the road from there next week...hopefully it won't be as stormy then!!!

It is being recycled for next winter is it?

Depends in what context. The winds may 'downgrade' (or 'upgrade' for those who don't want it...), but that just means it is more likely that the Low pressure systems will have more time to deposit its piddle over areas for longer. Bit of a lose-lose situation really. Either it is really strong winds & rain with its associated hazards (but at least it tends to blast through more quickly), or it is less windy with a tendecy to have more rainfall accumulation. Good to see signs of things slowly calming down after this week....but it would be nice to start seeing that enter the reliable timeframe...and less trough influence...

What is slightly concerning is the fact Thursday's rain got pushed further North as the models got closer to the event. Hopefully this one stays away or weakens...

Busy doing his day job I'd imagine. I think there is a bit of uncertainty in some degree with regards to the track and depth of any low pressure systems next week.However I remember reading something from him a few days ago that a broadly westerly pattern was being signalled into March? (Im not saying this means we are stuck with what we have now until then by the way) Plus it could have changed by now of course...

The fact Thursdays rain seems to now be shunting further North is quite troubling. This means that respite between these heavy bands/blobs of rain over the next few days have been reduced to a matter of hours rather than a day for those already badly affected....as if extra rain wasn't bad enough... This persisting pattern goes on...

Watching the film 'Signs' on TV whilst the wind roars across our chimney. Might get a nappy. But seriously stay safe all. I know for others it will be a sleepless night

I think it is quite striking that we have been stuck in the same pattern since mid-dec. Exceptions are a settled blip thrown in here and there, with changes only reaching our doorstep without stepping in fully. I am finding it unusual that it is going on and on. Is it more common than I think it is? Seems bizarre to me that once again we are 'stuck in a rut'. Feels like a common occurence in recent years with setups lasting weeks on end rather than days on end... Poor winter so far with nothing getting the chance of drying out before the next batch of rain arrives. I am beginning to look towards the convective season beginning with hopefully some settled weather in between.

Looks that way, however with positive anomalies situated over Europe appearing, if they were to edge enough West, it could perhaps help alleviate rainfall for the S & SW and push it further North with a more NW/SE split. However this signal seems to weaken as we go further ahead. Anyway...surface detail cannot be pinpointed that far out, so we will have to see where we are when this weeks weather has passed...on the face of it - not great for the foreseeable!

Indeed. Whilst I would love a snowy spell, I have still got stuck in looking at the models because I find it interesting as to how they cope with patterns such as this one we are locked in right now. This winter has been very interesting personally, but of course it has been a dreadful time for many people caught up in the floods. This winter has been just as valuable as others if you are learning to analyse the models in my opinion, but I understand many here are only interested in searching for cold & snow and/or fed up of seeing rain & wind bombarding us within the reliable time-frame. Certainly no issue with that - personal preferences after all. It is at least one positive to see some tentative signs of pressure rises - more so to our SE at present. Hopefully we see this signal build rather than fade, because to be honest I am a bit tired of everywhere feeling damp and squelchy and would happily sacrifice snow for a dry period of weather right now. Let's hope for a white Easter instead

To be honest I just want things to dry up now. Everything is so damp all the time making the milder temperatures not feel any better. Messy winter.

Damp and moist everywhere constantly.

Blimey...when will the trough influence end!? All I have seen is trough after trough wanting to push into &/or stall over the UK right from start to finish on the model runs for ages now I love snow...and the fact we are not really that far from a cold snowy pattern means I won't write February (and beyond) yet. However, I'd settle for a frosty high pressure slapped over us for a while now to be honest... If we do end up back in an unsettled westerly flow I feel for flooded areas. It will also be interesting to see where we go from there...

Mostly unsettled with cool/cold trough influence for the foreseeable is what I am seeing right now...I am a bit concerned about the yet further potential flooding impacts this could involve for some areas, more so parts of the SW. If it were to verify as shown, hopefully it will be more of a showery nature than constant. Whilst snow would help delay any impacts, it would be very unlikely to settle in areas that are still flooded. Still overall...pretty much a wintry mess everywhere going by this afternoons runs, so at least some members (particularly further NE you are) may see some of that special white stuff, even if it were to be temporary in parts. The fact the blocking High to our NE keeps being underplayed, means to me, F.I is still quite early. Therefore, not too worried this evening and the overall N Hemispheric pattern looks rather positive at this time if it is cold you are seeking Hopefully this continues and perhaps eventually more of us living closer to the SW will be on the better side of marginality. Though...a spell of drier weather would as well be welcomed by quite a few I think. We seem to have had a trough influencing our pattern for quite some time now....

Yes..and if it isn't cold enough, rainfall will just continue to bring more problems to the SW with regards to flooding....What does looks pretty certain at this time is that we will be affected by Low Pressure systems rather than a settled spell for the foreseeable...just depends on what falls from it! Either way more water is involved at some point but more of a delay if it was the frozen variety..