Chris K

I've already had my storm activity for 2014 - one thunderclap the other evening. I wonder if we did end up with a snowless winter, it may bode better for a warmer/thundery Spring/Summer? No correlation I expect...but one can dream.

Aren't we still in Autumn?

2024 sledge sales announced. Coming to a store near you...

This is all their fault in the first place. Weather always does the opposite of their headlines.

Bleurgh...it really has just felt like a one long autumn here Still...it has only just approached mid-winter..another half to go yet and even longer for "potential" if you don't mind if it snowed in early spring!!!

I have just posted some info in a different thread - Hope it answers your question, if somewhat briefly. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78799-talking-about-the-polar-vortex/?p=2891848 If you haven't aleady, well worth reading chio's post #1 on the Strat temp watch thread for more detail, as well as following other posters in there http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2806808

In addition to the info above I was reading this from http://www.decodedscience.com/polar-vortex-friend-foe/41233 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The polar vortex is always in existence, customarily causing seasonally cold weather in Canada and Russia, and regularly bringing a modest chill farther south. Sometimes, however, the polar vortex gets frisky. What Exactly is the Polar Vortex? The polar vortex is simply a low pressure center in the middle of the atmosphere, located near the pole. The circulation around the polar vortex is commonly known as the jet stream. In the southern hemisphere, the polar vortex is fairly uniform. In the northern hemisphere, the irregularity of the land masses leads to a circulation with a split personality — a bi-polar vortex as it were. What Causes the Polar Vortex? All weather on Earth owes its existence to the fact that the Earth is round and the poles receive less sunlight, and therefore less heat, than the equator. Cold air is denser than hot air, so if one goes up to a given height at the pole, there is more air below, and thus less air above, than at the equator. At a given altitude, the pressure is lower above the cold air of the poles than above the warm air of the tropics. Air would like to flow from higher pressure to lower pressure, but there is the complication of the earth’s rotation. This introduces a ‘force’ (the Coriolis force) which turns the wind 90 degrees to the right. So air flows with low pressure on its left and high pressure on its right. Everyone is familiar with cyclonic (clockwise) and anticyclonic (counterclockwise) flow around low and high pressure systems. And that’s all the polar vortex is: A low pressure center in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, located near the pole. The Position of the Polar Vortex in the Northern Hemisphere The area around the north pole comprises water, ice, and land masses of various sizes. As a result, the polar vortex tends to have two centers; one over northern Canada and another over Siberia. Occasionally one of the vortices wanders to a location that proves inconvenient to those not used to frigid temperatures. That is what happened in the extreme arctic outbreak over the United States in January, 2014. The vortex over Canada became displaced to the south, and arctic air spilled into the central and eastern U.S.

(Please note, I am typing this post whilst cuddling a box of straws) I wonder if the models were perhaps being too progressive in bringing cold from the East so soon? Similar to the idea of models often picking up a signal due to initial atmospheric changes, dropping it, then bringing it back further down the line - could we still see this decent cold easterly eventually? It seems rather sudden to go from a powerful Jet barrelling LP systems to the UK straight into a countrywide, cold, snowy, easterly setup thanks to a blocking High over Scandinavia - all in one attempt? (I realise there can be quick changes but it still needs time to shift into position) Maybe this first 'bite' will disappoint (some), but there is nothing concrete yet. Who is to say that heights will not continue to try build in a more favourable position to eventually give us a pattern that so many here desire? Quite a few winter forecasts did suggest late Jan & Feb would be our best bet for colder conditions. It will be interesting to see if these come to fruition. I just hope we don't end up with stalling fronts of rain....could do with a county-sized hairdryer down here!!

----------------------- I will do my best. Yours sincerely, Jack Frost. ------------------------ I don't know about anyone else, but I always love a period of uncertainty in the models, as it is like searching for pieces of the puzzle to finish and witness the final outcome! Hopefully that outcome is like piecing together a 3D snowman rather than a 4 piece picture puzzle of a rusty train. I won't repeat what others have already have said, other than that at least we have some interesting charts to discuss and debate, rather than the inevitable chain of lows turning my garden into a pile of slurry.

Just drove through absolutely atrocious conditions into Bristol. Rain was so bad the fastest setting on my wipers wasn't good enough.Take care for those it still has to reach. Flash surface flooding in many areas.

A very interesting set of runs this afternoon & evening. As others have already stated, it is still finely balanced and we will need to continue to see more consistency between all the models and *hopefully* see an interesting pattern change taking hold. Is it sad that I'm about to rush to bed so I can wake up in anticipation of the morning runs? Let's hope they continue the improving cold signal theme of tonight!

Mildest on record? I am not sure and will wait until the official stats roll out at the end of winter...however what happens 2nd half of Jan will sway be one direction or the other... What is noticeable is the low amount of frosty nights in my area. I cannot recall more than a few since the start of December. I want to say 3 or 4 at best. If this winter does turn out a snow-less winter for me, I'm hoping for much more convective activity during Spring & Summer than last year!!!

Was reading up on the situation across the pond just now and something caught my eye...(highlighted in bold at the bottom) By Tuesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) is predicting 48 US states will have wind chills of below zero - an area of 1.5 million square miles. Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard has upgraded the city's travel emergency level to "red", making it illegal for anyone to drive except for emergencies or to seek shelter. The polar vortex will hit temperatures in 48 US states by Tuesday The last time the city issued such a warning was in 1978. - It's a (currently running late) sign!!! http://news.sky.com/story/1190958/polar-vortex-freeze-to-hit-48-states

Yes although it didn't quite get there at the end, the initial stages are encouraging and we have to remember that is 10 days away and there will be changes....hopefully for the better. Another 12 hours to wait for the next haha. Would just like to say Steve M's posts are particularly useful to follow as the run comes out if you are learning like me, as it helps to know what to look out for. Not forgetting others as well.

Had one yes ONE rumble of thunder about 10 minutes ago. And no it wasn't the bins!! Hope that isn't the only rumble of thunder I get in 2014...

That's ok. The GFS can show more wet and windy weather all it likes that far into FI, because that means it is unlikely to verify at that range right? I know it is a different set up, but back in December we had the runs showing a sceuro high stuck right from T+0 to T+384....why can't this change within a few days like it did back then? I didn't think that just because our prevailing weather is from the W/SW, meant the models were more reliable for it? Or am I wrong? I do agree though - until something reduces that temperature contrast over the States, a powerful Jet Stream isn't going to be helpful. However as others have stated, the trend is there for potential weakening and buckling of the flow. I know people will be sick of hearing this word now, but I think we need to be 'patient' and see what the models show in a weeks times....and also prevent ourselves doing this in the meantime... If we are nowhere clearer/better off then, I hold no responsibility for broken computer equipment.

*Bump* - We going to restart this for 2014 or continue on this one? Just thought I'd be the one to remind those longing for a storm, as some sferics are being detected to the SW of the UK within the squally showers forecast to move in overnight. Who knows? Some may get lucky early like last year

Oddly enough around this time last year I actually managed to get a few flashes of lightning from a thundery shower! Then for me personally, the convective season of 2013 went to pot from there

Considering many places have surface water standing throughout Gloucestershire near the River Severn already, adding the flood warnings being issued hourly by the Environment Agency, I think unfortunately it could play out as they are forecasting to be honest. We have the Severn Bore due to move up with the high tides tomorrow morning. This and the low pressure causing higher than normal tides on top of that WILL cause problems. Driving down the M5 on New Years Day you could already see flooding around the Gloucester/Tewkesbury area from rainfall alone. I have friends and family that live along the Severn that are very concerned at the rate of warnings being issued by the EA, with water levels already so high. I can't speak for other areas, but many coasts facing the SW could be in for a rough time with higher than normal tides from low pressure, strong winds, and rainwater trying to drain towards the coastlines all at the same time. Yet another deep Low looks like moving in Monday looking at the models, so it will only add to problems.

Well my search for cold and snow is being put on standby mode as it doesn't look like arriving anytime soon. Quite frankly for now, I'm just hoping for a nice high pressure cell to provide the country with some relief from the rain...

Yea just drove down the M5 from Gloucester to Thornbury and the weather is absolutely atrocious. Gone quite dark here and rain is relentless. Surface water flooding on parts of the motorway are causing issues so take care everyone if you are driving this afternoon!

Had to read what Ian posted again just to stop my heart palpitating. Shame on you!

Exactly - so anyone calling for particular pattern setting up after this is fruitless (apart from the eye candy (or burning)) in my opinion. People have already stated the operational outputs, particularly the further out you go (obviously), will vary quite drastically over the next few days alone.

Indeed but it is also worth pointing out a reply to a question he was asked on the same 'tweet' about what he meant by cold: Ian Fergussonâ€@fergieweather @wingers_world colder phases BUT the Atlantic domination continues apace for the reliable forseeable. So, "unsettled with colder periods". Not exactly bad though some places could possibly see snow if this was to verify? Especially further North and higher ground. PS - do we have a "Twitter output discussion" thread? draztik, on 27 Dec 2013 - 14:05, said: I think I remember CC already admitting to being under the influence of a whole bottle of wine at the time he wrote that

Oh wow the rainfall here has just gone so intense it sounds scary!! Must be that squall overhead and it is taking a while to go through due to it's more NE'erly track rather than the usual W to E. Surface flooding already being reported through S Glos into Gloucestershire just to my North. Phone mast has been cut off - all mobile network coverage in my local area has been wiped out. Lights are flickering now and again also! Rainfall rate being recorded at 1.046mm a MINUTE.