Chris K

That mass over Wales.....

Ah right ok Thank you Nick! Still learning

Lightning detected moving into S Wales now. Rain just about to move in here but to be honest....doesn't look like lasting long..? Intensity of it is even starting to decrease overall.

To be honest main electrical acitivty is over N France now, but moving in the direction of the SE corner of England. Just depends on whether it survives the dreaded storm graveyard (English Channel) Still some sferics here and there moving with the main bulk of rain though.

Sferics being detected off the coast of SW Wales now with a couple of new ones around Devon.

Well it's still early and don't want to sound pessimistic, but the strike detectors online seem to show lightning become less frequent (unless you are in parts of France). Not sure what to expect to be honest - updated met office rainfall forecast seems to show it becoming less intense and breaking up earlier to what it was showing yesterday. However, there may be some more interest for SE parts this afternoon from anything that makes it across the channel? Think I'll leave this one to the experts but a spell of heavy rain is what I am expecting...

Certainly springing to life this morning down there. Question is...will it keep it's energy as it moves inland...?

Short term, GFS runs this morning have shown tonight/tomorrows main pulse of heavy rain to move on a more NE path across the S/SE now, rather than the SW and Central areas? Met Office still sticking to a swathe of it across most parts. Another main band still situated across the west of England & Wales, parts of Ireland and Scotland.

GFS 18z run really is showing a rinse and repeat pattern of what we have had since Humberto headed across the Atlantic last month. (Of course i'm not saying it will definitely happen as it shows tonight, as there will never be an "exact" repeat) So...it's currently showing... Trough heads towards the UK, bolstering the high which transfers into Europe bringing mild air originally from the SW, swinging round to a flow from the continent Low pressure system heads NE grazing NW parts. Secondary Low forms and dives to the SW of the UK. Becomes sluggish and begins to fill in Another system starts sliding down towards the Low that is filling in to our SW. Question is...will it then do another push of rain up from our South, similar to what we are having over the next couple of days? Also, an interesting post from 10 days ago, because in my view, snowking, as well as others, have been very close, if not spot on many times this year. And so far this little summary from him below seems to be on track so far?? (I'm not brown-nosing honest! From a learning perspective, I just enjoy scanning through posts from over a week before to see how people's views have panned out) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by snowking on 21 September 2013 - 13:57 in Forecasting Model Discussion MJO Phase 6 signature (increasingly unsettled) beginning to be reflected in the days 5-10 NWP output. Expect some further swings for a couple of days yet as I imagine NWP is probably still having a little difficulty in resolving the energy fusing in to the jet stream from Humberto. Hopefully in to Monday/Tuesday a more consistent signal should begin to appear...and unfortunately that consistent signal looks as though it will be an unsettled one. The next shot at something more settled currently around days 15-25, with little coherent MJO or GWO signal as both tropical convection and global angular momentum fall to average levels...this is not a guarantee of settled conditions, merely the best chance of such conditions. Beyond that there is a growing trend from OLR plots to introduce something around phases 1/2/3 through the second half of October - all three of which suggest something rather unsettled. So as a rough timetable based upon current projections: 27th Sept - 5th October - Unsettled 6th-16th October - Something more settled? 17th October Onwards - Unsettled once again Timings are of course approximate SK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I hope he doesn't mind me referencing his comments in this post

Certainly looks like a rinse and repeat sort of pattern continuing with a flow from more of a SW/S direction, switching to a S/SE flow as the High traverses north-eastwards into Europe. Either way it's staying mild for now. Surface weather wise - as others have said the SE currently looks to be the better areas to experience settled weather from the weekend, with more influence from any Atlantic lows to the NW of the UK. Position and strength of any low pressure will be key in how much of the UK stays settled or not. Cloud cover is questionable at this time and as we all know from last week...as much as it was settled, some areas experienced a week of cloud and drizzle most of the time (including myself bar one day) How long it will last? Who knows, but i'd rather have this now than waste cold synoptics at this time

Definitely a day for the SW quarter of the UK today. Just a shame I'm too far NE. Enjoy guys

Bleurgh think its all going to stay too far south/Sw to reach the Bristol area. There are rainy remnants edging northwards very slowly towards here but not thundery by looks of things.

That is certainly more precipitation than what was being forecast last time I looked on the Met Office site yesterday evening...but like you said just a tad further north please!

Aj, a rather selfish question if i may: How far north would any developments likely reach if these signals were to verify? As far North as the Bristol/Gloucestershire/S Midlands areas? Or more staying down near the S coastal regions and perhaps parts of Dorset/Somerset/Wiltshire/Devon etc?

Sorry if this has been asked already, but with the current hurricane season being relatively quiet, are there any links to effects further down the line for the UK? For example, with a quieter Atlantic, could this aid the development of blocking patterns in the medium-long term towards early Winter? (Especially if it stays quieter than normal towards the end of the season?)

Only just started noticing them the past couple of days. Usually it will now mean about a 2-3 week burst of the critters absolutely everywhere. I dread to think how many I'm stepping on whilst walking across the field with my dog. There are so many it is like a moving carpet.

I'm worried it might melt the plastic that's currently sheltering the encrusted barbed wire in the seat (Yes I was sad enough to get one)

Yes. There's nothing more excruciating than sitting on a cold toilet seat in the midst of a deep cold spell in my house. We do not have central heating...so when the gas fire in the lounge goes off and no electric heater is on near the bathroom, it is like walking into Jack Frost's ensuite.Anyway......I digress.Wonder if the hurricane activity will start to pick up next month? Might be a stupid question but when does the hurricane season tend to 'end'? Is it early Decemberish? Recent years have been rather quiet on the Atlantic storm front making our autumns rather 'stagnant'!

Taking parts of the update discussed above: UK Outlook for Monday 30 Sep 2013 to Wednesday 9 Oct 2013: "The unsettled regime looks likely to continue through the rest of this period though the rain will be interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes" and "However, temperatures are likely to be above normal and it may feel warm at times, especially in central, eastern and southern areas. Through the following weekend it may turn somewhat colder generally, especially for northwestern areas." It kind of matches up to the GFS 06z run for early next week?? ECM is pretty close to but keeps the windy weather further west. Rainfall looks showery in nature but being a 5 days + away that could change to anything (or nothing!) To me it sounds perfectly reasonable as the trough tries to repeatedly go against the High to our NE/E, then getting held back and pushed W and eventually N'wards, before another tries to swing towards the UK again. This squeezes the isobars on the pressure charts indiciating a stronger breeze at times, with perhaps some stronger winds on western coasts. The more east you are, the more likely it'll be warmer and drier at this stage. All based on today's update and morning model runs, so how far east any low pressure has influence will chop and change each day. It doesn't look like any washout and it will still be drier at times with mild temperatures. Certainly nothing set in stone as I am sure you are all aware.

Nearly spat my drink out at that article. If anything it has been slowly downgrading over the last day or two on the models for anything "fierce". At best I reckon there may be a few sferics pop up to our South in the channel with perhaps some "fierce" drizzle for some as (if) it moves across.

Pesky drizzle it is then

When I die, it means I'll be stuck in the No Storms Club for even more of an eternity. Great...just great.

Meh. Given up this year now. I bet anything that happens towards the end of the week completely avoids us or gets watered down to some petty drizzle.

As long as we don't end up with constant cold, benign setups with grey skies for days on end.

Just to try put this one to bed... there is a difference between saying that the Met Office said we ARE going to get a decade of wet Summers to what they actually said... Professor Stephen Belcher, Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, and Dr James Screen, a NERC Research Fellow at the University of Exeter, were careful in their messaging about the AMO. They talked about initial research which suggests this cycle, which can last for 10-20 years, can ‘load the dice’ to mean we may see a higher frequency of wetter than average summers before switching to its opposite phase, where we may see the opposite effect. Currently, they said, it appears we are well into the ‘wet’ phase of this cycle, so it may continue to have an influence for a few more years to come. That does not mean every summer will be a ‘washout’ for the next decade and shouldn’t be taken as a deterministic forecast for what we will see in the years to come. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/media-coverage-on-wet-summers-for-a-decade/