Chris K

I see your point, but to be fair, they are only commenting on what could occur if some of today's chart outputs were to verify. I'd imagine most realise to take charts in F.I with a quarry load of salt and that changes will happen. This thread would be pretty boring if we always knew what was going to happen in 10 days time!

Got my road trip through Europe mid July for 2-3 weeks - driving through Belgium, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, stopping at Krakow in Poland, then coming back a slightly different route. So heads up - maybe something big will happen storm wise for the UK around then, because they always avoid me like the plague...

Riot police gearing up to control outbreak of angry Netweather storm enthusiasts In all seriousness its understandable because it really has been poor on the plume front recently with storms drifting away from the UK or just dissipating. We can only hope something happens during the rest of the summer. (I'm lacking on positivity on this I must admit!) Until the next chance? <_<

*sigh* What I feel like doing: What I wish I'd be doing: What will probably happen:

Nothing new. Whenever we want a thundery plume the systems coming from the Atlantic seem to arrive earlier than expected pushing heat away more quickly. Whereas when there isn't any chance of it, the GFS seems to overdo the pressure systems and eventual outcome is they are more slack/arrive later than expected. (Not saying it always does this but that's what it feels like!) Rubbish...but I was a bit pessimistic from the start since the dribble worthy charts a couple of days ago. We've been here so many times before that now I expect downgrades and a solution much further East in these situations. Strong winds and rain for the weekend anyone? <_<

Not much else to say really

Was hoping for a level 3 'extremely severe' circle over Bristol....ah well In all seriousness I don't think it's worth the tiredness for me to stay up tonight. I'll open up the window so that I can still miss any thunder if it happened, because it doesn't ever seem to wake me up....

Get your gloves and scarves out people - tomorrow's daily express headline

Hah yea as per usual, the GFS shows epic runs for a day or so then drops it to match a more believable outcome. Still, there could be something decent along the S coast tomorrow night and the SE? Not sure how far North and West anything will get really. More runs needed but my IMBY pessimism is already playing out in this 12z.

That's it keep the reverse psychology going boys. 06z again looks very interesting....will it? won't it? The pessimist in me is expecting a eastward shift by some degree by the time we get to mid-week, but that's based purely on past experiences and not scientific analysis

Take your pick

Ian F on Points West said a very low probability of an isolated shower in the W country. Also said low chance of isolated thunderstorm potential if temps reached high enough, however will likely be confined to Northern Cornish coast (if anything happens at all). Emphasised 'low probability at this time' Not saying it won't happen, but at the moment I personally remain unconvinced. Just enjoy the sun until our plume arrives (or not) haha

For me it's experiencing the power of nature: Watching the storm developing as it moves towards me. The bolts of lightning momentarily hotter than the surface of the sun, that crackles across the sky or hits the ground. Huge booms of thunder rattling the house. Learning how something like a thunderstorm develops is always better when watching it live outside The last 'big' storm for me was probably May 2008. Whilst I've had some thundery showers since then, the storm back then started late evening and lit up the dark sky. I've been craving one like that night again since!

10.1c was today's max and 17.8mm of rain today has been recorded up to now (as others have said it felt like there was more...) It's June in a few days and to me it certainly doesn't feel like we should be approaching the end of Spring already!

Very fair analysis from you and others. It will be a case of what the operational models show as we progress through next week I think. Its a constant tense waiting game model watching! I've always stuck with 'look no further than 4-5 days' but its always interesting to read peoples thoughts on likely trends further on.

Yes if the trend of a warmer settled spell continues in the models you will find their updates change soon enough. Unless they see something we don't of course

Just wanted to say good luck. I can't imagine how hard it is after yesterday, but storm chasers often give valuable and potentially life saving information and help to people living over there, who perhaps cross their paths or check forums such as this. Enjoy the natural awe if anything happens, but I will add myself to the list of people saying that I hope there is not a repeat of yesterday in populated areas. Stay safe!

Anyone remember this fella? He's back again laughing in the face of the UK...

Anywhere between 16c-21c. Below 16c and I start feeling the chill during the night (I don't have central heating) Above 21c and it gradually starts to become a bit too warm, but it depends on how humid it is really.

049balt, You may already know, but the public Met Office forecasts are based on the model outputs and just like any others, forecasts for the medium-long term range needs to be treated with 'caution' shall we say? Small changes in the short term can result in sometimes huge differences in the medium & long term... so it's understandable that if you took their forecast from a certain day and reviewed it 20 days later...bets are that it wil be quite off the mark (although not always!) My personal rule is to always take any model output for 4 days+ with a quarry load of salt. There can even be fairly substantial changes before then. Long range forecasts are only for a guide and indication of potential patterns emerging in my opinion, and should be treated as such.

Afternoon all. I've had a brief look around and although i'm within the highlighted areas by some forecasts, are any thundery showers actually likely to cross into the W Country & Bristol area this afternoon? Or is it likely to stay further S & SW today? I'm thinking the latter if i read the charts correctly?

Had a clap of thunder here short while ago and some torrential rain. All heading NW into Wales. Pretty much on the edge of the breeding ground but as they are slow moving they are building quite nicely right above our heads.

Ouch. I'll be careful when responding next time GFS 06z FI has some eye candy at initial glance of CAPE/Li, with a trough becoming slack closeby to our SW bringing up warmer uppers. I don't have the best knowledge of this but if a set up like this were to occur, would it provide convective fans something of interest? (particularly for southern areas?) Shame it's too far out to be taken seriously, although the SW positioning of a trough pulling these warmer uppers from our SE has appeared a few times recently in some model runs.

I guess it's difficult in developing systems such as these. Either way its looking like quite a messy afternoon/evening. I'd imagine this evening's rush hour might get quite tedious for some!

Ohh ok I was only going by the date of issue at the top. Cheers.