Chris K

Hmm it COULD take a while to shift but that depends on the over NH pattern in my opinion. I certainly don't think it would last 3 months....

Few weeks....? Got any evidence to suggest it will last that long apart from assumptions?

But as stated earlier, if you get the right pattern in place those temps across land will fall away quickly.Anyway...we got to wait and see if todays runs actually come to fruition first...

I must admit I certainly didn't expect to start dribbling so soon from a model output. Let's hope outputs like this continue with more cross model agreement

To be honest, people can discuss the verification stats, but really it's about learning to get to know the models and patterns they show on a day to day basis, rather than taking only one run at a time into account. Eventually you start noticing certain things that might be out of kilter with other runs from the same day. Just one example is that certain pressure patterns might suddenly get shunted off too progressively in the models, but actually take longer to establish/change than what is shown. That is why reading posts from many different people in here has helped me learn to look out for these various factors.

Naturally, people will often post with bias to their location. There shouldn't be any "us and them" posts really, but people often get misinterpreted as doing just that. Anyway, I for one am getting slightly excited at seeing some of the first cold patterns emerging for late autumn. I doubt I'll see anything noteworthy in the near future, but the prospect of some frosty mornings is enough for me to dip my feet into winter mode!

Good post and I believe similar to the thoughts of others such as Snowking. Seems perfectably reasonable considering the outputs being shown.

As nice as that sounds, unless I see evidence of it coming out through the model outputs and/or the professional organisations themselves, I'll plant my buttocks firmly on the creaking fence for now... There does seem to be some sort of pattern change being signaled for the final third of November...but what will that mean for us? God knows!!

Haha Frosty - sometimes I love your posts. Even if it's highly unlikely to verify at this stage, you always know when to try inject some extra positivity in this thread Just having these outputs showing is giving something to clutch a straw factory over if you crave cold weather, even if it does looks like staying generally mild(ish) and changeable for the forseeable... What I would say is recently there does seem to be some sort of trend for high pressure to cross either over or just South of the UK. This then seems to want to head East into Europe, intially giving us some mild Southerlies for a time. It is at this point that the models seem to be toying with the idea of either having some sort of large high staying over W/Central Europe or transferring it up towards Scandi. Obviously both giving quite marked differences in the surface weather we would likely experience from each.

You can say that but I feel it would be highly unlikely that surface weather would be the same for weeks on end. Even if we had a winter dominated by a what you call 'mouthwatering' Bartlett high, you'll find patterns often get interruptions even if they come back after a 'blip'.

Thing is though, you can still get spells of cold weather & snow in an overall milder than average winter. I wouldn't get downbeat - another month of autumn to go yet!

Torrential rain and had a couple of flashes and rumbles here just now! Didn't realise anything was due to happen today!

Max gust of 27mph at my local station. So I was either sheltered or it didn't deepen early enough to affect me.

Well woke up at 6am and Max gust for my local station is 27mph. Nowhere near what was forecast so it sounds like the S coast and central/eastern areas have and still is taking a battering.

Max gust tonight so far of 10mph...but the rain has been very heavy and persistent. Strongest winds for here were forecast 3-6am but I must get some sleep. Goodnight all, stay safe. I'll be sleeping through the 'main event' for my area as it will be moving on by 0700hrs i'd imagine.

Latest surface analysis - 0100hrs

Rain has started to get very heavy here in my part of S Glos now and it looks like we got plenty more of the stuff incoming. I'd imagine surface water alone will cause problems for my drive to work in the morning. Pressure is at 989.0 and it says on my local weather station that it is currently dropping at 2.2mb an hour.

He was joking referring to a paper that used those very words

Yes it can be and don't deny that, although I stand by the high resolution charts more then the GFS at close time frames. I wasn't just talking about the NAE either as I know it has its flaws like any model. I was more on about watching it develop on satellite and read updates from the likes of the MetO and other professionals with the extra tools and systems they have. The snippets of info from Ian F today for example... Everyone has their preference though I guess. ^This

Regarding the latest GFS - I think some need to read the above by AWD, as it has been repeated by him as well as other posters several times at least. It makes me wonder if people read much at all on here?

I find that highly unlikely going by some of the posts in here this morning.

Or put this inside the tent for precautionary measures.

Jeezus...the 18z GFS is not good news for Southern England for rush hour Monday! Models seem to be bringing the worst winds for Monday mid-morning now rather than sweep through the early hours? Looking particularly nasty for the SE corner lunchtime Monday if this was to verify... Tomorrow's runs will be interesting.

Was it the GEM that previously picked up a deep Low then dropped it, only for the other models to pick up on it for this weekend?