Chris K

Well from looking at todays GFS 18z run so far compared to the 12z (I know I should really be looking at yesterdays 18z but still...), one of the big differences (there are a couple of others as some have stated) comes in modelling the block over Scandi & Russia. (What a surprise!) If you look from as early as T+48 you can see this is where changes start initiating, resulting in different positioning and behaviour of the blocking high - particularly with the cold air flow direction and the fact the coldest uppers start pushing away in a more Easterly direction (if my bearings are right!). Compare the two as you click through the times on the model chart viewer - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= If you look across the Atlantic sector, whilst there are of course differences (Jet stream, Azores High influence, LP system timings/direction etc..), they aren't quite so stark compared to this. Another day of hiding behind the sofa coming I think....and if we were to go by the 18z alone (going by some comments tonight...unlikely )..whatever we end up with next week seems to get stuck in a sort of 'rinse and repeat' pattern, with the possibility of some marginal snow events for some areas if it was to get cold enough. Not saying this is going to be the outcome of course...just my take on what it is showing in this run ALONE.

I don't disagree with your post...but if people don't post some evidence to show why they think differently, how is is any question of their analysis meant to be understood and debated?

If we do go past the point of no return, at least it will only be 9 months, or thereabouts, before we can start searching again That is after our hot, thundery summer of course It depends how soon is starts to slow against the 'block' to our NE...it could fill slowly pretty much over the UK, meaning a unsettled, although probably more showery affair after the main band of rain.

Exactly Frosty - a higher risk is better than no risk . I think we are in a better position than what we have experienced this Winter so far. No guarentee of cold and snow of course, but even if it was not sustained, I think many would take just 1 day of the white stuff I am so desperate I would be happy just to see some falling! However one important factor I feel is how the systems crossing the Atlantic interacts with that High to our NE and it really does look like a fine margin. The models continue to hint at some form of undercut down the line. This may not mean snow for all...but if this were to eventually happen, I think the further NE you are in the UK, the more prone you might be to snow. I must admit I'm not especially confident with Low after Low modelled to brew in the Atlantic...but who knows.. So unfortunately before then, it looks like more rain is on the cards, coupled with strong winds for some. My area and I am sure like many others are still damp and sodden, so it is not welcome! Finally,as Ian F posted earlier, certainly quite an important period of model watching coming up. If we are indeed approaching a 'tipping' point...that is something that could potentially send this forum into meltdown, or turn it into a graveyard I certainly don't want a continuation of westerly dominated pattern...more rain? bleurgh...

As one of those people, I just thought I would say (as others have pointed out already) that I am NOT liking it due to the fact we could have yet more potential flooding and copious amounts of rain. I liked it because Ian (who no doubt is already busy enough) takes his spare time to post valuable information on this forum, which could even act as a pre-warning for areas potentially affected. This could allow them a little head start in making preparations just in case...

Yes I must admit I wish i had followed these more closely this winter like a mini home 'project' to see how well they verify. Out of interest, do you (or anyone else reading this) know if there are any resources showing verification and accuracy stats for them? (comparing a chart to actual chart 10 days later or something similar?) Looking at those means in particular, the Azores high certainly looks like a pin in our backside! That is if we head in that direction of course...

What is interesting is how far the cold 850 uppers are making it across the Atlantic from the W/NW without getting mixed out a great deal as they approach the UK. This has been showing up on multiple runs these past few days. Realisticly, I would assume more mixing out as the time gets closer to the realiable timeframe (if it was to verify as shown of course)...however it would tie in with Ian F's comments mentioning the unusual temperatures showing up from a westerly flow. Now I am not saying the above is a certainty - I do think we are in for a rather nail biting time when it comes to model watching (Durrr..). And that is of course if you have any of your nails left already... I wonder if we could be looking at a rather unsettled spell coming but with a bit of a cold twist...question being though...a cold enough twist?

Angry NW protesters told to stay calm and stop violence after recent lack of snowy activity, causing tension to sky rocket amongst posters.

I think a problem is people are expecting to see these cold charts appearing on the model runs now. Whilst they can do, some predictions made by various posts are talking of patterns that may POSSIBLY start showing up for 10-15 days time onwards I believe? Therefore...that currently takes us into deep deep F.I and into the abyss on the outputs....when have the surface patten details ever been reliable at that timeframe? The trends at the moment are actually looking quite positive I feel! If we are still seeing the same sort of 'zonal' filth people are talking about in a week or two...then perhaps I'll start stocking up on emergency weather-related stress kits. Just in case.

Thought I'd do the honour of posting my 1000th post in the good ol' regional thread It's cold. It's damp...and more rain edging up now into the SW... Booo

Welcome to the model output discussion thread..designed for...discussing model outputs! Let the 'background noise' continue!

Out of interest...has anyone been keeping tabs on the accuracy & verification of these mean outputs, over a period of time this winter? Genuinely interested to know before I perhaps do a little bit of homework myself, because it all sounds very conflicting here this morning with the ens apparently showing zonal weather is likely...whereas others saying the route to cold is. Such uncertainty! I guess that is Shannon Entropy at its finest. Although i must admit reading the term is starting to feel like stepping in a dirty cloth on the sidepath.

Well if you dont want to explore the wealth of solutions the models show then yes in that case it is always best to focus up to the point where all the models start disagreeing with each other.I just think the thread will be a boring place if people can't at least express excitement, interest and debate certain runs, even if it is likely/unlikely to verify. After all we've only had rain and wind to talk about for most of the winter so far!!

I don't think anyone are 'polishing their sledges', especially after the frustrating (although still interesting) model watching these past couple of weeks. However, considering some were saying (including myself) that a return to a more zonal spell looked most likely, thing aren't looking quite that simple (as usual!) and actually looking a bit more positive this morning. Just have to wait and see if it carries on as the time gets ever closer! Yes we aren't going to get a widespread, prolonged, snowy spell....but some people could get a few surprises if these improvements continue.

Indeed to me I think this will be one of those winters remembered by many for it's flooding...for now. It has been a long winter if you are a coldie on this forum - it certainly feels like we have gone way past the halfway mark. However we do still have 1.5 months of winter left. I must admit though..the models this morning are not filling me with joy seeing an unsettled Atlantic dominated pattern POTENTIALLY setting back up. Difference is, that this time it looks to be more a westerly/ North-westerly driven pattern rather than W/SW - Not the first time that has been mentioned as a possibility and could still bring snow for higher ground and areas further North in particular. I think we need to wait and see what early Feb brings - if a possible SSW does occur, it will then be a waiting game as to whether it will affect our small part of the world in our favour. Not 'writing' anything off, but unsettled an

I assumed as much. Its been a long day at work haha!

Am I being dumb here or am I being a killjoy for a joke? (or both!?)The chart you linked says its from the GEFS ensembles?

"Don't worry Mr Freezer - we'll make our own Winter"

The models can feel free to show wet and mild weather right to the end quite frankly. Then it can be wrong and we get the opposite ;)I understand the frustration but actually some the significant factors from the NW forecast have so far been close to the mark?"The AO will be positive to neutral for the first 2/3 of winter.The overall NAO neutral to slightly negative.The NAO conditions are achieved by a southerly positioned jet stream, rather than significant high latitude blocking.Lower risk of a SSW this winter, though some form of late winter stratospheric warming likely.Height anomalies grow over Scandinavia as winter progresses."Forecasting surface weather features are notoriously difficult, dare I say pointless at long range...we are a small blob in the N hemisphere after all.

Someone pass me the paracetamol....

Without wanting to sound like a debate moderator, everyone has their own preferred methods and I am sure each have their flaws and advantages. Most of us are continuously learning from each other, which is why I find resources such as online forums so useful at times. Nothing wrong with a bit of debate and questioning Keep up the good work, as learners like me find people with knowledge and understanding from many posters here very valuable.

It is interesting that the run of cold, snowy winters occurs during/soon after the low solar activity. Research into this area of science must be fascinating in how solar activity affects our weather. I know its not that simple, but I dare not speculate what might happen for the next couple winters as it would be foolhardy and I would probably lose my sanity.

Yes with that Azores high modelled back where it is...it all feels too much like 'back to square one' to me, where last time we ended up with the sceuro high for a while before that stormy period took hold...Not saying that will happen again as there is high uncertainty at the moment and differences in the jet profile. A real test of patience this winter.

Surely let winter finish before calling someone's piece of hard work pure fantasy? Also give them a chance to review their forecast as Chio did for the first half - reasons for differences clearly explained. Honestly... Mother Nature doesn't read a forecast and go "yea ok then let's do that!

Interesting chio.... I do like the 'rolling of the dice' analogy because it puts it into perspective for me. Whilst Strat warmings look to be beneficial in increasing the likelihood of bringing cold conditions to the UK...to me it is almost a thing of pot luck whether we actually get it or not. We are after all a small blob in the whole of the N hemisphere and nothing is guaranteed, with small changes often meaning larger differences in outcomes for the UK - As I am sure all of us here know by now! It is encouraging to see warming still forecast in the models, as I feel it means there is still opportunity down the line for this remaining winter. I am sure it is also fascinating for those (including yourself) to research the effects of stratospheric influences on weather patterns for us and other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.