Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Chris K

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,088

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Chris K

  1. Chris K
    Don't forget to keep an eye on the MO fax charts over the next couple of days, as they will give a better indication of the progress of forecast front/trough positioning. The 18z ones show the warm/occluded front to cross the UK Fri night/Sat morning, with a cold front coming in behind, straddling the W Midlands noon Sat. Which of these is more likely for more severe storm development? Either way if it stays as a triple point there could be some prolonged torrential rainfall for many.
  2. Chris K
    Can't wait for El Busto to be cracked out...
  3. Chris K
    It has been quite some time since I last saw charts as good as these smack bang over the W Country....shame there is still a couple of days for it to shift, although these sort of values are what we often see in FI territory rather than within 3 days. Interesting stuff.
  4. Chris K
    So...who is going to be doing this when their thunderstorm arrives? Saturday is currently the day to look for as we know...GFS 18Z has it ever so slightly more West again with most areas experiencing some form of deluge, be it thundery or not. The end game however is still for the Low to start pushing in from the SW (at least temporarily), moving the warmest air off to the East of the country. Certainly some interest to watch before then.
  5. Chris K
    Bristol? Chances of thunder? I am going to guess that around Thursday we'll start to see the downgrading and eastward push of storm chances begin to the fullest. if not, the timing always seems to be perfect in the fact the rain arrives between 3-7am for us - where all it does is wee on the garden. Still...the Express seem to think otherwise if you haven't read it already...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain
  6. Chris K
    This almost brought me to tears http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain "SHOCK WEATHER FORECAST: Worst HAILSTORMS in 170 YEARS to hit Britain THIS weekend"
  7. Chris K
    Certainly looks tasty for eastern areas...but been here time and time again. All still too knife edge in my opinion, so it will be interesting to see how the models look each passing day.
  8. Chris K
    Well...a few days ago I mentioned that I would not be surprised if the thundery episode we saw 1-2 weeks ago was repeated in the near future and looking at the runs this morning, it looks like a possibility. My eyes as always are drawn to convective weather this time of year! However now for the pessimism. Just like it did before, I would expect the heat & storm potential being shown to decrease somewhat. The trough was modelled further and further West to begin with causing the 'upgrades' (if you liked warmth and storms) to show. But, as the higher resolution fine tuning kicked in, the tilt of the Low Pressure pressure pattern caused the warmest uppers and stormiest of storms to be reserved for the continent. Still...some of us did still see thunderstorms, others stayed dry and warm but then not forgetting those who endured generally murky and cool weather...an unsettled mixed bag for sure, but not a total washout. Nothing is certain, but this 'repeat' to some degree is my personal expectation. I could end up being way off the mark because it all looks a bit knife edge on which way it will go. Ah well...this would all be boring if we always knew the outcome right?
  9. Chris K
    Summer is my favourite. Light evenings and usually warm enough to relax outside with some beers with friends. Just like generally being out and about when the weather lets us. Also whilst I wouldn't like high humidity for long, I do enjoy the thunderstorms in mid-summer - if we are lucky they can be a good show...rather lacking though in recent years. There are some things I like about Autumn but is probably my least favourite, only because it is when the summery colours start to fade and the noticeable decrease in daylight hours starts becoming more apparent. Yes you get the brilliant display of autumn colours to but once this fades everything starts looking all dull again! Also don't like those muggy damps days you often get in Autumn.
  10. Chris K
    Heavy downpour here but looks like it won't turn thundery before passing through.
  11. Chris K
    It is hardly surprising we are seeing outputs like today with the Jet Stream modelled that far South of the UK. Here is T+18 from the GFS 18z run just as an example.... What we are seeing is the stronger "bursts" of energy through the Jet being forced South of the UK towards Spain. This happens repeatedly throughout the run until right in FI...it just keeps getting forced South over the Atlantic because of the blocking pattern currently established. Between that, it does try tilting on a more NE path towards or just NW of the UK, but ever so weakly. It doesn't help matters that we have heights over Greenland, the Azores High and Heights to our NE all lingering around like a hot fart. The passage left for troughs is for them to get forced over or close to the UK and into Southern Europe. Until we see changes to cause a break in this hemispheric pattern we are going to see this continuing. There will be some settled spells included like (hopefully) next weekend...but the overall pattern is sluggish and being a thorn in the backside at the moment. Would not be surprised if we eventually see another "thundery" episode similar to last weeks appear - as hinted in deep FI. However, I would like to make clear that I am not suggesting our Summer pattern is set...I wouldn't be so daft to make that assumption with such a complex system that is our atmosphere. We just need nature to give the pressure patterns a shove.
  12. Chris K
    Good point but the charts you posted are at day 10? Still rather unreliable in my opinion and likely to further change over the coming days. It would not take much to see some areas have completely different surface conditions, depending on the Low pressure's movements and where it actually ends up.
  13. Chris K
    Well at that range right out in deep deep FI, the GFS typically coughs out lots of different solutions every run. Even if one scenario appears more often as a "trend", personally I don't think it's even worth spending the time to think about until it's within a week or so. That is roughly the time when a decent enough idea on the incoming set up is gathered, with details getting refined as we enter higher resolution. I guess it's a bit of eye candy for a convective POV though...
  14. Chris K
    It feels so cool outside though with a strong breeze. Plus I have only seen 15 mins of sunshine earlier this afternoon just North of Bristol...I think any developments will be too weak to produce any T&L this evening in my opinion (For this area at least)
  15. Chris K
    Been pretty grey here all day. Don't think I'll be seeing anything from approaching showers apart from rain.
  16. Chris K
    Well...with the Jet Stream modelled to take a southerly dive with Spain in it's sights, it leaves the UK in a sort of "no mans land" in doing so. The trough in the vicinity of the UK wants to take a bloody long time to show itself out the door...allowing it to continue providing showery rain to some parts for a fair while. The Azores High does try to nose in, but the trend for the moment is it to stick out to our West, eventually giving us a more Northerly feed.
  17. Chris K
    I just noticed on radar how it has suddenly popped up! Should be hitting me very shortly but will just have to wait and see if anything more than rain develops.
  18. Chris K
    Interesting...although the rainfall intensity seems to be decreasing a bit as time goes on. Whether it develops more again when it makes landfall I do not know..
  19. Chris K
    Good thing I was working near Gloucester today! Just had a nifty little storm rumble through with several CG's and deep thunder. Good stuff! All heading off N/NE now! Can also still here rumbles coming from across the River Severn.
  20. Chris K
    Ohhh the amount of times this split scenario has happened in recent years for this area..haha
  21. Chris K
    Ohhh the amount of times this has happened in recent years for this area.. :)Good thing I was only expecting rain anyway! Can't be disappointed if it stays dry!
  22. Chris K
    Going by the Met Office rainfall forecast map some lucky people in the SE corner could see some lightning later on from the stuff currently over France. Cannot see it moving much more West in my opinion. For the rest, heavy rain with perhaps some thunder, but I think the best chances are when any showers form in the afternoon, as a humid airmass moves in behind and (hopefully) strong sunshine gets them to work.
  23. Chris K
    I see the updated rainfall forecast shows a drier split appearing somewhere along the band.....I think I know where that will end up fellow Bristolians. Not that I was expecting more than rain anyway...though there might be a better chance from some showers in the afternoon if they get going.
  24. Chris K
    Well after a disappointing night with everything fizzling out on the edges of Bristol (again ), I am not overly convinced I will see anything for the remainder this week, as the best chances look to be pretty much anywhere from a line North of here. Thursday sees a band of heavy rain modelled but with the timings once again crosing this area in the early morning, I think once again any activity would crop up further North. Anyway...with a new PC screen on order after lobbing it into the street, I will just wait and see now if anything develops towards here over the coming days....as ever surprises can crop up and at least some showers are forecast. Good luck all - it has been a good start to the 'season' at least. I didn't even get one night of burning my eyes over the radars last year.
  25. Chris K
    Look at it piddling itself out just before it gets to Bristol..... - I'm calling it a night!
×
×
  • Create New...