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Chris K

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Everything posted by Chris K

  1. Chris K
    It's so close but I have a dreadful feeling it may pass just to my E/NE...
  2. Chris K
    The trough must be engaging more unstable air suddenly the lightning detectors have picked up big time!
  3. Chris K
    This shows the surface trough feature nicely....
  4. Chris K
    ello ello it seems to be picking up now along the centre of the surface trough....my pessimism may soon be undone with it seemingly heading this way
  5. Chris K
    I don't think that Estofex forecast covers the potential blob of torrential rain modelled to push Nw'wards through the W country, Midlands and North Wales & beyond on Saturday morning. It only goes up to 0600hrs, where the met office have a separate, earlier blob pushing NE'wards from the South in the early hours.
  6. Chris K
    If the lightning activity dies out before hitting Bristol again, I might just throw myself off Snowdon tomorrow whilst I'm there and be done with it
  7. Chris K
    Indeed...NMM 4km has it a tad East compared to it's previous run, so to be honest it is really not worth worrying about until we see stuff actually developing on the day.
  8. Chris K
    Yea hopefully instead of that nice gap in-between the 2 sections of main activity....*sigh* please no repeats
  9. Chris K
    Hmm met office rainfall update is a rather large downgrade for later on in the W country....will be interesting to see how this pans out.
  10. Chris K
    I would have thought red warnings would only be issued if the possibility of severe flash flooding occurred, for example under a cloudburst or prolonged torrential rainfall. Problem is, it is usually too late to issue the warning when it is happening real time... I could perhaps see an amber being raised if storms become prolonged on Saturday but at the moment the yellow "be aware" is likely to be the main one.
  11. Chris K
    It depends really. I would imagine they have more criteria than what we see on their website. Timings of weather will affect the warning rating on their matrix. For example, there should not be much traffic on the roads disrupted by any storms tonight. Of course there will be the usual night time delivery traffic and that sort of thing, but compared to daytime traffic the risk is lower, as there's less drivers to depend on being aware. Also it is unlikely there will be many sporting events or other public outings that late in the night. Based on that, the risk of disruption is lower than Saturday where there are likely to be quite a few events going on and also people will be out and about during the day. I am sure they take many other things into account as well.
  12. Chris K
    Well when I travelled through Europe last year, we hit 40 degrees in Salzburg. I did not actually find it that bad until the late afternoon when humidity rose. That was then too unbearable.... So for me, I can cope with temps sort of around 30-32 as long as the humidity is not too high. Any higher and it starts getting too sweaty for my liking and it drains all my energy. For coldness...I would say -10 or so until it becomes too bitter without covering my face. Also depends on the wind chill.
  13. Chris K
    Nope that is fine particularly for set ups like this! I was just highlighting the fact more people might get a nice surprise tonight due to the changes
  14. Chris K
    Well the met office rainfall forecast, while not to be taken as gospel, has more areas of Southern England shown as covered as it crosses later tonight and into the early hours. It could perhaps even tail across towards London, so many people have some good chance to see something even more Saturday! It also seems to be arriving earlier...This morning, rainfall was shown as not due where I live until about 0400hrs here, but now it looks like it will hit around 0000-0100 for the W Country, areas of the Midlands, Southern Wales and Southern Ireland....exciting times!!
  15. Chris K
    I am looking forward to his local forecast tonight....
  16. Chris K
    I booked today and tomorrow off as I'm preparing stuff for my climb tomorrow....good timing really! No need to suffer the hot office in my horrid shirts that feel like paper haha...
  17. Chris K
    Earlier this week it looked likely I would have to cancel my climb up Snowdon Friday afternoon. Now the met office forecast says a low risk of an isolated thundery shower is really all there should be, as anything from tonight is due to clear away by the time we arrive at the car park, leaving a muggy day with sunny spells for us to climb in. Does anyone have any thoughts on whether it would be foolish to go climbing Friday? We aim to be back down off the mountain by early evening... Driving back Saturday morning down the M5 towards Bristol could be exciting at least....
  18. Chris K
    It's looking very promising for the W country Karl....not seen something this good on the charts for our area for a long time! Just got to wait and see now on how things develop real time...
  19. Chris K
    All flaring up nicely in the Bay Of Biscay...hopefully it heads our way
  20. Chris K
    Wow even the W country gets absolutely smashed Saturday morning by torrential rain....could very interesting if it verifies and stays electrified. Also, if any activity does start up overnight tonight across some SW parts, Mid-level cape looks really excellent for any elevated storms. Really could be a light show in places if it comes off.
  21. Chris K
    I'll be driving from Shrewsbury back down home to Bristol Lunchtime Saturday...could be interesting if developments aren't too far east... Just saw the latest GFS run...
  22. Chris K
    Also, Severe Weather Europe's take on Thursday Night/early Friday's risk. http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-valid-17072014/ The text forecasts specifically for the UK... An upper ridge is persisting across south-central Europe, a short wave is affecting Scandinavia. A new short wave is pushing from the west of Iberia towards the UK. A weak upper low is still affecting S Balkans and areas towards SW Russia. A SLGT+ risk has been issued for WNW France into S UK with threat for excessive rainfall and severe winds. Moderately unstable and sheared environment should support organized severe storms once they initiate along the N-wards advecting frontal boundary in W France and should tend to cluster into MCS towards UK overnight.
  23. Chris K
    If you have not seen it already - this is quite interesting from the BBC weather website on how the super typhoon 10 or so days ago has apparently caused this upcoming hot spell & potential associated storms here in the UK. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/28334771
  24. Chris K
    Not sure...Thursday night/Fridays potential thundery weather might actually be a little too far West for us...however until we start seeing things develop at the time it really is difficult to say where and when things may happen. Friday night/Saturday there is a risk for most areas to be honest, with perhaps more emphasis on Eastern regions. However again it will depend on the fronts and surface troughs and where they situate themselves. Cells could explode from nowhere, so it will be a live skies & radar watch in my opinion.
  25. Chris K
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