Chris K

At a guess - the showers South of Ireland, but it was always a snow showers affair rather than bands of snow - so hit and miss.

Approx what direction are the flashes coming from? Might take a sneaky peek as I live about 10 miles N of Bristol.

Sleet. Sleeeet. We have had a bit of sleet. Haha. Encouraging for when the temps drop more later

I have only experienced it once here. Was probably about 12 years ago roughly...was bizarre I was out in the snow with friends and we were bemused to what these weird muffled explosions were...until realising it was thundersnow! Surreal.

Indeed...but it was the higher probability outcome at that time, not a dead cert. As always it is a constantly evolving and fluid situation and likely to change with each passing day.

I know those roads well as I head that way often. Main roads will be fine but side roads/dodgy lanes might get a bit hairy. Not sure how much will settle to be honest. Down to nowcasting! *waits for the pervs overexcited moderators to say something*

You'll probably steal it all being that just bit higher up the hill than me

I did laugh at myself after I had posted it.

Marginal but I'd take it....

Not sure if I'll get anything here North of Bristol. Only 50m asl and quite close to the Severn estuary. But...it's great to just have the excitement of watching the temps and radar (Although..met office app does show heavy snow overnight before thawing during wednesday - if it settles of course!)

Just to add to what Shaky has responded, I did not think substantial snowfall was to be expected at lower levels in the South anyway (regarding Tuesday)? The main threat of some accumulating snow was for higher elevations Mendips/Cotswolds, some of the moors etc but even this depends on other factors. The only time I have seen the word "significant" was with regards to Friday and what happens to the LP - low probability of anything significant for us further South at the moment..with more info by chio above and Ian's post below. It is at least a feature to keep an eye on over the coming days though, in addition to everything else getting thrown at us. Some need to only scroll through a few pages back to get the latest info that we are lucky to get!

I can understand the pessimism from a snowy point of view, but we are only just hitting mid-winter. Looking back from Dec 1st, we have actually had quite a wide variety of weather across the UK! However for most of course...not the prolonged snowy spell that many crave. I've lowered my expectations of a normal British winter, difficult after the likes of 2009 & 2010. For me now, I think the struggle to get snow here most of the time, whilst frustrating, makes it that bit more special if it does eventually fall. I'd be happy with just a day of the stuff quite frankly! February can be just as magical for snow if the right pattern sets up (extra daylight to play in the snow with the kids to!). Plus, I know many say the sun strength starts to melt it quicker but really...if the surface cold is there...it'll stay put! I think we need to see what happens to the Jet after this active, unsettled phase of weather. Ian F over in the MOD thread mentioned a possibility of more anti-cyclonic spell towards end of Jan/early Feb. Depending where (and if) it sets up, there are some good possibilities that it could lead to. If the Jet Stream weakens and/or buckles due to some sort of blocking setting up, it could work in our favour. Too far away to consider for now though. A week of stormy weather to contend with...let's see what the models show as we get close to next weekend...

Maybe...but that is at T+384...unlikely to verify equally as much as if it was showing snowy weather. The Azores high starts to get flatter over next week and it isn't until after a forecast northerly toppler (a week away...) that it ends up with the chart you posted above. I think we need to see where we are going with next weeks storm before worrying about anything after! And I don't mean 'going' as in getting the country thrown into the continent from the strong winds

OK I understand where you are coming from I just wanted to highlight that there could indeed be quite a difference to what the Northern/Southern halves of the UK may experience weather wise in the near future (although it looks to remain generally unsettled for most for now)

I think some living further North in the UK will likely disagree with your last sentence. There could easily be something wintry of note for them over the coming week or so.

Here we go...have a read. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/july-flooding-2012 Justified in my opinion. PS - Even though it is under the "teens" section in the education area - it is an interesting area to visit for case studies!

I'll keep my coat handy thanks that chart wouldn't exactly be warm just because of the "warmer colours" - it is for the 500hpa level. I am not a fool to believe one perturbation from the GEFS ensembles at T+336 hours either

I'm still wary of searching for trends in operational outputs in FI even if it is repeated - it reminds me of a time last year where high pressure was shown to block over SC Europe for at least 2 weeks and the models were showing this in FI for days...until a Low Pressure developed at relatively short notice and actually kicked us into an unsettled phase within a week. (think it was late Sept/Early Oct..don't have the archived charts to hand) So for me yes it's nice to see and the positive for me is knowing whatever the charts are showing in FI, things can happen before then that can change FI dramatically...as its the nature of the charts at that range. Of course if more models and ensembles and associated means start backing it up, then that's better!

I'm not falling for that again

Even the snow on the nearby tree has started to melt

I would give them a chance to analyse and review it all at the END of the winter first and consider what other factors may have come into play over DJF! It is still yet to be peer-reviewed as well remember and is part of their ongoing research? The only drawing board they need is to stick the faces of people who treated it like a dead certain forecast! There is 2 months of winter left. Not 1 and a half. And how many times have people talked about past snow events in March/April where snow was on the surface and stayed there. Yes the Sun will of course have more power but if the surface cold is there, it will stick.

Final nails hammered into the coffin for a real deal cold spell before mid-Jan? 100% agreement on day 6/7 zonal and at least ten days from that point? Sorry no offence but just like when all models agree on a cold pattern setting up at days 6/7 and prolonging, that can change quite dramatically in only a couple of days due to a multitude of developments that can occur before then, which may have not been initially calculated by the models. You may be right...but it would be a consequence of guessing and due to the UK's position, the higher chance of our prevailing weather conditions going against getting a "real deal" cold spell countrywide.

Bit sceptical of this. Its like these "my friend in the council told me gritters are on code red for snowmageddon" type posts.I don't think any professional forecaster would say something will happen that far ahead.

I mostly agree with you mushy ref. the possibility of the GFS being right, but the models still change smaller surface details right up to the day in question anyway. However when the GFS sticks to its guns, it has sometimes come out on top in the end. But vice-versa as well....it has just as often been clawed along to meet with the ECM & UKMO. With the recent levels of inconsistency across the mainstream models (albeit each model beginning to have its own consistent solution), personally I think the fax charts (surface pressure analysis) updates by the MetO are useful and sometimes overlooked. They do of course also change (more so towards days 3-5), but I feel the fact that professional forecasters often input their modifications based on trained knowledge is valuable at times. Until the weekend's Low is sorted out (it's getting there!) I am a bit skeptical of where we are heading. For those that may not be aware of these charts: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=fax;sess= or http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1419249600

But is it not possible that it may have calculated something that the other models haven't yet? Yet again more runs needed...Never mind...just read that it was a mild outlier above...