Chris K

Nice to see another shift west. But is the run an outlier at all or does that factor minimise at close time frames?

I am already there drinking the bar dry - better hurry!

I think some people sometimes forget that those who produced their initial analyses, often posted a review towards the end of their forecasts, explaining why the outcome did not verify quite as expected. i.e. the science behind what factors caused a differring solution. It's one thing to say something does not look right and getting it right, but another to explain why, backed up by the science. The major overarching pattern can stay relatively similar, but the smallest of small scale changes will mean a totally different outcome for a specific area. Even the professional organisations always have an element of uncertainty included in their calcuations...such is the chaos of meteorology. To make a final point, I am not saying that those who do not provide scientific evidence in every post should not post at all. All should feel welcome to post their thoughts in here regarding the model outputs, it makes this site a great place to learn.

I assume the speed of that cold front could be quite the decider in this sort of setup? Edit: Ah actually I guess the main storm risk is from the surface trough ahead of it.

Well I believe the UKMO model did not really support any notable plume of heat and storms compared to GFS. But generally I find it is a case of the models underestimating the power of the jet coming out of the US. More so if a Low pressure system is forecast to move through from the west.With regards to it seeming more common in recent years...well I think we have seen more stronger, southerly tracking jets during recent summers? Still...we got 3 months of summer left yet

I'm never believing any storm charts again until I see you in here ramping.

We've been here many times before and as much as I want to believe it won't, the likelihood is you're once again correct and there will be a further push east. The SE could do well, but for someone like myself in the West, frustratingly it could be a no show. As you've also repeatedly said, UK meto model isn't playing game and the GFS op moves towards the Euros again. Oh it likes to tease.I'd much rather see a stalling low out to our west spiralling fronts against a blocking high to our east. Once again though it looks to push on through thanks to the overarching pattern. Let's see what the models bring us tomorrow...

Am i looking at it wrong? Or do the fax charts show the low moving in almost a day earlier than the GFS? Let's hope the GFS is onto something....

I cannot post them at the moment, but if you look at Thursdays fax chart alongside, you can see that there is a warm front across the channel and flicking between the two, it swings up over the SE corner of the country sometime overnight Thursday night. With the warmer air flow initially coming from the continent until gradually getting swept away by a northwesterly, it looks like there could be a chance of imports for at least somewhere in the SE region. The cold front on that chart is partially weakening as it pushes into the high - it may destabalise the atmosphere enough to initiate some storms, but my assumption is the warm front and pre frontal surface trough are the main triggers on these charts? However, the surface features on these fax charts, such as fronts and troughs, often change quite a bit by the time it reaches the day 1-2 range - particularly their alignment and speed at which they are moving between certain times.

Or even worse..."thundery rain"

Well...the high heat shown in yesterdays outputs increasingly confining itself to the SE and getting swept away more quickly in the 6z gfs. I think I know where this is heading with 4-5 days still to get there At least it shows high pressure trying to build back in after.

I feel the fax charts become a valuable tool once it starts getting in range. They can help show whether we are likely to see storms galore or a bust. Particularly within 3 days range Still too early for me to get excited, but at least we have had some eye candy appear in the models right?

Indeed Mushy pattern matching can be useful at times but the smallest of differences can result in a totally different pattern for a particular area, such is the chaos of meteorology.

Apart from some precipitation development ahead of the front, the positioning seems in-line with the 06z NMM 3km timings at the moment, with the frontal boundary now approaching the S coast of England.

A friend of mine said they saw lightning and heard a clap of thunder near Weston-S-Mare. Can anyone confirm?

Lovely afternoon. Blue skies and sunshine. Still a little chill in the breeze but pleasant! Temp - 13.7 celsius

The Met Office do such a wide range of posts a decent honors degree in a physical science, maths, or geography is a good starting point. They obviously have other areas like engineering and computer software/hardware design, project management etc with meteorological aspects to them as well. Vocational qualifications are another option/addition. As I never got the A levels I needed, I did a technical engineering apprenticeship until I got promoted into a full time post in project management. I was still thinking about the future, because I still want to eventually progress into some form of meteorological career...but for me more so in climate research or observations. So I actually went for the part time study route through the Open University, alongside my full time job. I chose the BSc (Hons) Natural Sciences pathway and currently about half way through my second year. Funnily enough I am currently on two modules which involve weather forecasting, observations and other areas such as climate change. There are some boring subjects to...but I just had to get through them and actually it did introduce me into different ways of researching and presenting my findings. So it depends on what you are most interested in doing in the future. I used to be focused on "I want to be a weather forecaster" but realised there are so many more different posts that were still weather & climate related that could potentially get my interest just as much. Give the Met Office an e-mail. Explain what you are currently doing, and what you might like to do in future. Briefly include any experience you have that may be relevant to weather & climate (used of models etc). Ask what the Met Office normally look for in applicants and whether they had any recommendations for a way forward. I would also recommend looking on the Royal Meteorological Society website: http://www.rmets.org/ They often have some good career advice on there. Hope this was of some help.

Yep - Not really the right set up today for it to stay organised and hit W UK - squally showers with the odd rumble cannot be ruled out though.

I understand the frustration by some about this winter. I love snow and I only had some flurries fall from the sky - that's it. However I think a large factor in causing the frustration is relying on the models too far ahead when looking for snow - it is very similar to when I search for thunderstorms during Spring & Summer months. Great charts FI only to be lost or watered down in the reliable. Grrrrrr But snow and thunderstorms are often the most difficult to forecast. These days I want to see these "great charts" appearing within T+72 not T+180. And even then it can still change quite dramatically! Anyway - here's to hopefully seeing a decent Spring & Summer - I am glad to see the back of this winter and to be honest I take the positive though of "at least it was not as bad as last year and hey...we actually had some frost and more sunshine this time (IMBY ) "

Let's hope for a decent convective year now that we begin the journey into Spring Already some interest S of Ireland this morning, slowly heading towards parts of W UK. 10.20am: Not sure if the lightning activity will make it across, but met office rainfall forecast does show the line of squally showers getting here. Not to be solely relied upon, but CAPE/Li do not seem to be that conducive for anything organised. But here's hoping for a teaser to start this years storm hunt? Good luck all

Looks like active storms S of Ireland....wonder if they will make it across?

here you go! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts Scroll down the bottom of the months for seasonal.

What a lovely tease for the convective season of 2015 haha!

Just had a flash and a rumble here

Just had a flash and a rumble here! What a surprise!