Chris K

Woooops don't read my post in the MOD thread then

I realise it is known as the pub run....but if other models and runs are along similar lines it screams agreement...so I think the opposite Still...anything after 5 days can often change dramatically, sometimes even closer than that. A case of continuing to watch and wait....hopefully not until winter 2015/16 haha! "Patience"...as they say...

This is not aimed at you mushy - just a general point...because people get ridiculed for looking to FI for cold, posting charts in deep FI to prove a point as well. Maybe not on the same scale, due to there being a larger number of people here who search for cold & snow during winter, but happens all the same. FI is FI and I cannot believe some people who have used this site for years seem to keep ignoring that fact. I often read posts saying that a trend may have been spotted from FI, but I sometimes wonder if people are actually keeping a chart record of a "trend" before saying so. A SSW is not necessarily needed - equally cold weather isn't guaranteed if one does occur - it just possibly gives us a better chance. There was a good post the other day from someone, where they were giving examples of past prolonged spells of cold BEFORE an SSW occurred. The wonders of FI...no matter it shows. Very rare in the UK even though we have been spoilt in recent years - you are probably better off going on holiday, moving on top of a mountain or live in a different country that does see that often!

I think that is a fair assessment IDO....some decent cold shots from the NW/N with brief westerly interludes. However at the moment, the Azores/Atlantic high is being a bit of a pain, as it is repeatedly toppling cause the coldest uppers to water down and get shunted out of the way too quickly. It could eventually work in our favour though and is better than constant SW sourced winds.Some areas in the north will see snow, but I think we need better amplification to allow that HP to nudge N before it risks getting pushed towards Europe or sit to the South of us....interesting times to see what happens next.

Or even better, clutch these to bring a taste of winter to you in real-time.

Indeed, but a shame it looks like that High would topple further on and alas lower resolution kicks in. Some people would probably see snow though, more so the further North you are. Some noticeable differences quite a bit earlier than that time frame so it will change I think it has been a decent evening for coldies...we just need it to get into the reliable! The Azores/Atlantic high looks like it is repeatedly attempting to nudge North as time goes on, but so far LP wants to keep it under control... Interesting model watching at the moment

Thanks for this - Have only quickly skimmed through tonight but an extremely interesting look into the amount of model analysis work that has gone on there. It will be interesting to look at again in various stages throughout the next 3 months. Plus I assume a hindsight analysis would be done next year like this one did?

That was fun stumbling home in very thick fog through our town that turns most of the street lights off at night

Because they are describing what signals are currently showing in their models for the 16-30 day time-frame. If people use them the same way as a shorter range forecast, then that's their choice, but not how they should be interpreted. Something that may be useful for some posters to read: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/about-forecasts

Maybe so! However, it doesn't mean the output all the way out to T+132 time frame is suddenly dead certain to verify as shown in today's run... It just means that after their analysis, they have modified the output to something they feel is a more likely evolution at this time. A lot can change in 5 days...and that goes for any time of the year.

Before this starts a whole new debate in this thread again, can I just kindly point out what has been stated several times already recently? There is not an offical Met Office winter forecast. If I am assuming correctly, you are referring to the 3 month contingency planner release to assist organisations with their risk assessments for POSSIBLE scenarios for the next 3 months, away from typical types of weather. It should not be taken as an official forecast. "3 month outlook This product provides some limited guidance on potential variance from climatology i.e. possible change from what is typical for UK weather. It is however an emerging and cutting edge area of science and users are encouraged to consult our shorter range and climatological guidance before committing resources or taking action." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Rather cold out there tonight - already only 2.7 degrees Celsius here. At least it makes a change from the milder, damp air!

Finally...a week where I might see some frost! Temps forecast to stay under 10 degrees Celsius by day as well. After last year it's already an improvement (except for any rain)

This stemmed from a day or two ago where models were showing an evolution of a long-drawn southerly/South Easterly coming up over the UK from North Africa. Similar to when cold shots from the North get moderated and watered down, it seems to be doing the same with the warmest uppers no longer making it to the UK. This is due to the Atlantic pressure patterns shunting it away over the continent before really impacting us (although mildish uppers still making it here for a time before a wedge of high pressure brings with it a cooler NW flow)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting The MOGREPS medium range ensemble runs twice daily, 0000 and 1200hrs. Whilst nice to hear about it appearing at the end of the run in the latest update, I think it is still worth pointing out that at 15 days away, caution is required of it verifying (as I am sure everyone is fed up of hearing). For the cold seekers, we would need to see these hints of favorable weather patterns start moving into a closer time frame and with cross-model agreement.

Let them carry on - the weather usually ends up doing the opposite

I'm happy - Some good posts from many members, but I have particularly been following the great posts from Tamara and Snowking and so far they have been pretty accurate with their thoughts Shame they were not stickied in some sort of way, as people seem to completely forget about this sort of good information after a new page starts in the thread. No one is ever 100% correct all the time, but we are lucky to see such detail instead of the usual emotive responses to models that do not show people's desired evolution at this time.

Atlantic weather still tests any forecaster, even if it is where our prevailing weather comes from. The bands of today's rain were still causing some headaches just last night, with regards to the timing of arrival for certain areas. Anyway - I would have thought they would prefer to talk about the current, more reliable output rather than base it on some signals of cold which may or may not come to fruition. They may indeed be seeing some signals and internally discussing that, but in all honesty, even though the NH profile is looking great for a potential cold pattern down the line, the UK is still stuck in a cool, unsettled regime for the foreseeable.

If that starts making it into the reliable time frame then I think a big chunk of the netweather community will start getting palpitations. Lovely to see these charts appearing, especially a real push of heights moving across the Arctic and Greenland. However, for now, it looks like a continuation of alternating cool, unsettled weather. Low pressure systems want to push towards the UK with periods of rain interspersed with sunny spells and squally showers. A great NH profile seems to be continuing to take shape though, if cold weather is your thing, but of course it will depend where pressure patterns set up and what side the UK is on in relation to that. It will be interesting to see where we are model output wise as we move into next week.

Unless I am reading that wrong, it is not really suggesting a long fetch Eastery as it is not a surface pressure chart. To me that shoes a forecasted anomaly of higher heights over E. Canada to W Greenland and lower heights stretching across the Atlantic towards the UK. There is a less-strong higher pressure anomaly N of the UK and Scandi so you couldn't really say from this alone whether this would result in mild, wet weather pushing in from our West, or if troughs would undercut any high and form some sort of battleground over the UK. If that chart verified, I would imagine it would be quite a mixed bag at the surface in reality. Depends on the positionings of pressure patterns...which others with better knowledge than me have already explained

I actually struggle to hold in chuckles when reading express weather stories. I read them in a sort of movie trailer tone voice in my head. Winter is coming: Temperatures set to plunge to -4C as Britain gets first arctic blast No Mr Rao and Madden, it's called late Autumn... :laugh:

I totally agree, but I am not sure how that can be easily enforced to be honest. Some people will naturally select outputs that suit their "tastes" more. Difficult in the world of forums unless it is strictly moderated for scientific purposes.

"Cold Bias" ??? A) if you feel that was a biased post from me then sorry it was unintentional. B) To be honest...what do you expect on a weather forum? I fail to see how we can prevent a differing number of people who like different weather types. I would have thought the fact that the majority of members on here live in the UK and considering we tend to get snow much less often than other places around the world, means we are more likely to see a higher number of those who enjoy a bit of cold and snow compared to a milder winter. Good thing I like all weather types in the "real world"...just not persistent patterns of grey weather that my post was meant to suggest.

I do not care if it stirs something up. Those are exactly my thoughts and I knew from the start this was never to be treated as a concrete factor to determine what our winter will be like...it is still being analysed and worked on after all. Plus there are many other pieces of the winter jigsaw puzzle that still need to be taken into account. Some people need reduce expectations from the OPI to be honest and equally the evident trolls of the forum need to stop flaring things up...it's obvious who they are! Again as others have said - thank you for the update OPI team. Your work is valued by many here.